KAZAKHSTAN ELECTIONS: Pluralism Became Reality
Friday 20 January 2012By Colin Stevens
The extraordinary elections to the Parliament of Kazakhstan didn’t bring any surprises – a major victory belongs to ‘Nur Otan’ led by incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbaev (80%).
Some degree of political competition was brought in by the "Ak Jol" party, representing the interests of small and medium businesses (7%). The Communist People's Party (7%) was the third force to enter the Magalis - the lower chamber of the Parliament.
According to the election results the ruling party is still at the peak of his popularity. On the contrary, "Ak Jol" only won parliamentary seats due to favorable legislation. According to the electoral law, if a party fails to cross the 7 % barrier it nevertheless is accepted to Magalis, being the second in numbers of votes. It obtains the appropriate number of parliamentary seats as a percentage among 98 seats.
In the Magalis all together there are 107 seats: 9 members elected by the People’s Assembly of Kazakhstan, another 98 - on the basis of general free and fair elections. Five years ago, after the last parliamentary elections, Kazakhstan faced a wave of accusations that it was "lacking democracy".
A one-party Parliament under a multiparty system was questionable under the principles of democracy. However, the authorities asserted that it was the people's will because in the 2007 election Nur Otan won over 88% of the vote. Nearest to it turned out to be the National Social Democratic Party with close to 5% of the vote.
The majority of the observers haven’t noticed any significant violations, with the exception of the OSCE. The late elections in Kazakhstan took place under complicated circumstances. For a number of parties, the decision to dissolve the Magilis was if not surprising, still rather abrupt. It gave reason to some of the party leaders to complain that they didn’t have time to prepare.
On the other hand the current election was in fact already the second in the country over the past year. In April 2011 the extraordinary presidential elections were held, when victory went again to Mr.Nazarbaev. T
he existing distribution of powers in the country was heavily affected by the tragic events in Western Kazakhstan. Zhanaozen, a small town of 120 thousand inhabitants, become well-known in the country due to permanent strikes of oil workers.
The last one started in June 2011 and led to mass dismissals, which had a fatal role to play in the tragic events during the celebrations of the 20th anniversary of independence on December 16, 2011. The planned festivities ended in riots. The clashes between the police and workers resulted in 17 killed and over 100 injured. A number of administrative buildings, shops, transport, local offices of banks were burned down, amounting 20 million dollars in damages. A curfew was imposed on the second day of unrest.
Severe criticism of the government by all political force followed. This criticism translated into the departure by many from the most radical opposition National Social Democratic Party (NSDP). Some of them left to join Ak Jol, pointing out disagreements with the policies of leadership of the party they were abandoning. The NSDP is known for its harsh criticism of the authorities and profiling itself as the main defender of the “underprivileged”.
Recently the Zhanaozen riots have undermined the government’s image because previously they repeatedly reported the successful mediation in the labour dispute between the workers and management. On the contrary the oil companies and regional authorities have declared these negotiations fictitious.
The image of ruling party was equally damaged because of they claim the credit for the improvement in the welfare of citizens, which already became a part of its traditional rhetoric. It was only with loss of life in Zhanaozen that the authorities acknowledged serious shortcomings in their work. In addition, during almost all the seven months of the strike, Nur Otan ignored the situation, or stated that "the workers were claiming too much". The wave of social unrest in Kazakhstan has strengthened the position of the Communists. T
hey already intensified their work before last year's presidential elections. This year they have been able to attract a very substantial number of Kazakhstanis among its traditional constituencies like socially vulnerable groups, pensioners and the unemployed. Lately they have been joined the by agricultural workers, government employees, the workers of large enterprises and students.
The "Ak Jol" party in this election has made a huge leap to the political “Olympus”. Just a few years ago it was a traditional Kazakhstan amorphous political entity. Previously all parties reminded themselves about their identity only in the electoral period. However, over the past year changes in party leadership as well as reorientation for lobbying the interests of small and medium business has allowed it to take a solid second place in the constellation of political forces.
It created a clearer profile for itself, leaving the representatives of the public sector, as well as big business outside with Nur Otan. Another party, which had a good chance to enter Magalis as the greatest competitor to the ruling Nur Otan was "Rukhaniyat" ("The Spirit") but it left the race. On the eve of the election campaign the party was just one of several "greens".
However, the leader of the Nationalist Patriots Mukhtar Shakhanova joining the party greatly expanded the ranks of its supporters. Polls showed that an overwhelming number of rural youth were ready to vote for Rukhaniyat in the West and South. It is a matter of fact that the most powerful Islamist sentiment is concentrated in these regions as well. Rukhaniyat’s popularity was proven in many ways, i
n fact the first weeks of the race it was leading in the purchase of advertising space. But scandal broke out the second week of the campaign, on the grounds of numerous alleged violations, including the forgeries of some of the parties documents. As a result, the Central Election Commission decided to revoke the registration of party lists of candidates for Parliament, removing the party from the race. I
n spite of that the preparations for these elections showed, according to many observers, that the multiparty system in Kazakhstan began to take "physical shape." Parties no longer wake up only at the eve of elections, but are becoming a significant political force. There are four solid political forces: Nur Otan is the party in power, Ak Jol, which lobbies for the interests of small and medium-sized businesses, the Communists which represent the interests of middle and working classes and part of the retired, associated with the Soviet era, and last, but not least, the fierce opposition - the National Social- Democrats.
Ak Jol and the Communists, both opponents of Nur Otan have from now onwards an opportunity to form a coalition to introduce the criticism of the ruling party in the Magalis. Overall, despite the eventualities during the campaign according to most observers, even the most critical ones like the newly included representatives of the OSCE mission, the elections have been estimated as a positive step towards democracy.
Despite predicted victory of the ruling party, the democratic principle of a multiparty legislation of Kazakhstan has become real.