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'Yes Scotland' sets out its stall

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Link"It is vital to stay focused on the big picture in the independence debate and to see the unique opportunity to build a better country," Yes Scotland Chief Executive Blair Jenkins said today (18 March).
Marking six months-to-go to the referendum, Yes Scotland demonstrated the diversity and depth of the biggest grass-roots campaign in Scottish history when representatives of the many Yes sectoral groups came together for a symbolic team picture.
Jenkins said that he was convinced the campaign would be won 'street-by-street and conversation-by-conversation' through the thousands of dedicated volunteers that Yes Scotland had attracted.
This, he said, painted a radically different picture to the No Campaign.
''The difference in scale, style and substance between us and our opponents tells us a great deal about the choice we are being asked to make later this year," he said.
"At Yes we have been building the biggest grass-roots movement in Scottish history because on September 18 we want the people of Scotland to make history. We have many more volunteers, more public engagement, a much more active and visible network of community groups all around the country.
"The scale and breadth of our campaign is also reflected in dynamic new organisations such as the creative movement National Collective with 2,000 members, Business for Scotland with close to 1,500 members and Academics for Yes with 120 members.
"On top of that we have seen the diversity and energy of Yes in the launch of so many campaigning groups in so many area of Scottish life – including trades unions, the third sector, the Asian community and academics to name only a few."
Jenkins added: "Yes is about imagining what Scotland could be and should be. We want a country where we get governments pursuing policies in line with our values and priorities of achieving social justice and growing prosperity.
"Scotland is one of the wealthiest nations in the world, and we would like more of our people to share in that wealth. Our Scotland will work in partnership with other nations for a more peaceful world, and will no longer provide an unwilling home for Trident weapons of mass destruction.
"The Yes Scotland message is simple. On 18 September, don’t hand power back to the discredited Westminster elite. Vote Yes to put Scotland’s future into Scotland’s hands."

What the experts say:

The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s said: “Even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment.” (source: Standard and Poor’s Key Considerations For Rating An Independent Scotland – 27 Feb 2014)

The director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies said: The statement that ‘this is a rich and successful economy’ is one I would entirely agree with.” (Source: Paul Johnson at Scottish Enterprise Committee – 6 March 2014)

What the opponents of independence say:

David Cameron: Supporters of independence will always be able to cite examples of small, independent and thriving economies across Europe such as Finland, Switzerland and Norway. It would be wrong to suggest that Scotland could not be another such successful, independent country.”

Key facts

  • In 2012 seven out of the ten wealthiest countries, in terms of GDP per head, in the OECD – the group of rich developed nations - have populations of 10 million or less.
  • Looking at the countries ahead of us, few, if any, of those countries have the economic advantages and natural resources that Scotland has. But they are independent and can use all the economic powers of independence. So we know what is possible if we too had those powers.
  • Scotland is estimated to have generated higher tax receipts than the UK for every one of the past 33 years.
  • National statistics, produced independently of ministers by statisticians, show that over the past five years our public finances have been relatively healthier than the UK’s by £8.3 billion – that’s nearly £1,600 per person.
  • Spending on social protection benefits, including pensions, is more affordable in Scotland because they take up a smaller proportion of our total tax receipts.
  • Scotland has more top universities per head than any other country in the world and is a hot-bed of cutting edge industries.
  • Our world renowned food and drink industry currently has a turnover of £13bn per year. (Source: Scottish Government Growth Sector Database).
  • Our manufacturers export around £15 billion annually (Source: Global Connections Survey 2012).
  • Our thriving life sciences sector employs 16,000 people in Scotland and has a turnover of over £1.9bn a year (Source: Scottish Government Growth Sector Database).
  • We have strengths in creative industries, which generates over £2.8bn for the economy (Source: Scottish Government Growth Sector Database).
  • The financial and business services sector employs over 215,000 people in Scotland, across 22,000 businesses (Source: Scottish Government Growth Sector Database.
  • Tourism in Scotland generates £10bn  of economic activity for this country (Source: Scottish Government estimates using input-output tables).
  • We have a quarter of all of Europe’s offshore wind and tidal potential and 10% of Europe’s wave potential.(Source: Scottish Government analysis)
  • We don’t need oil to be successful - we raised roughly the same taxes per head as the UK even without it, (Source: Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland), but there is estimated to be as much oil by value to be extracted from the North Sea as has been taken out already so we will benefit from this huge bonus of many billions of pounds for decades to come.

GDP per Capita in Scotland: llustrative geographic share of North Sea activity

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  • GDP per capita is a commonly used indicator for international comparisons of economic performance.

    Rank

    Country

    2012 GDP per head ($)

    1

    Luxembourg

    $89,417

    2

    Norway

    $66,135

    3

    Switzerland

    $53,641

    4

    United States

    $51,689

    5

    Australia

    $44,407

    6

    Austria

    $44,141

    7

    Ireland

    $43,803

    8

    Netherlands

    $43,348

    9

    Sweden

    $42,874

    10

    Denmark

    $42,787

    11

    Canada

    $42,114

    12

    Germany

    $41,923

    13

    Belgium

    $40,838

    14

    Scotland (Onshore + geog oil)

    $39,642

    15

    Finland

    $39,160

    16

    Iceland

    $39,097

    17

    France

    $36,933

    18

    United Kingdom

    $35,671

  • These estimates have been produced using data available up to 7th March 2014.

The key gains

Gains from independence whichever party is elected

  • Decisions about Scotland will be taken by the people who care most about Scotland - those of us who live and work here.
  • A Parliament elected by people in Scotland will replace one where representatives from Scotland make up only 9% of the 650 members of the House of Commons; the House of Lords is wholly unelected.
  • Governments will always be formed by parties that win elections in Scotland. Key decisions for Scotland will not be made by governments without the support of the Scottish electorate.
  • A guarantee that tax and social security rates will be set by the Scottish Parliament, elected by the people of Scotland. Policies like the 'Bedroom Tax' will no longer be imposed on Scotland.
  • Public services can be kept in public hands. The Scottish Parliament has kept the NHS public but could not stop Westminster privatizing the Royal Mail.
  • An economic policy approach to promote economic stability and job security in Scotland will replace a framework which disproportionately benefits London and the South East of England.
  • Access to our own resources - for every one of the past 33 years Scotland is estimated to have generated more tax per head than the UK as a whole. With independence, decisions about public spending will be taken here in Scotland.
  • An independent Scotland could invest our oil wealth for future generations. Norway now has a savings fund worth more than £470bn.
  • Our taxes will not be used to pay for nuclear weapons and we can remove Trident from Scotland for good.

Gains from independence if the current government is the first government after independence:

  • Childcare extended to give our children the best start in life, making it easier for parents - especially mothers - to return to work and deliver new job opportunities.
  • Abolition of the 'Bedroom Tax' to save 82,500 households in Scotland - including 63,500 households with a disabled adult and 15,500 households with children - an average of £50 per month.
  • Stopping the rollout of Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments in Scotland.
  • The first steps towards a fairer tax system: basic rate tax allowances and tax credits rise at least in line with inflation; ending of the married couples tax allowance; abolishing the Shares for Rights scheme.
  • Pensioners' incomes protected with the triple lock so that pensions increase every year by either inflation, earnings, or 2.5%, whichever is highest.
  • Simplification of the tax system to costs and tax avoidance, with a target of £250 million extra revenue a year by the end of the first term of an independent Scottish Parliament.
  • Return of the Royal Mail to public ownership in Scotland, guaranteeing the quality of service that all parts of our country currently enjoy.
  • A Fair Work Commission and a guarantee that the minimum wage will rise at least in line with inflation. Over the last five years this would have improved the earnings of the lowest paid people in Scotland by the equivalent of £675. Continued support for the living wage.
  • A timetable, produced within the first term, for reducing the rate of corporation tax by up to three percentage points to counter the business pull of London.
  • Examining further help for small businesses, for example the potential to increase the employment allowance, which would cut national insurance costs and encourage more jobs.
  • Reduction in Air Passenger Duty by 50%, with a view to abolishing it when public finances allow.
  • Support for energy efficiency and the roll out of green technology to reduce energy bills by around 5%.

Key facts on Scotland’s fiscal position

1. Revenues: Per capita public sector revenues in Scotland are higher than in the UK

  • Scotland generated 9.1% of UK tax with 8.3% of the population in 2012-13.
  • Total estimated Scottish receipts in 2012-13 were equivalent to £10,000 per person in Scotland compared to £9,200 per person in the UK as a whole.

Total Estimated Tax Revenue Per Capita

(£)

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Average

Scotland

£10,600

£9,100

£9,800

£10,600

£10,000

£10,000

UK

£8,700

£8,300

£8,800

£9,100

£9,200

£8,800

Difference

£2,000

£800

£1,000

£1,500

£800

£1,200

2. Spending: On average over the past five years, public spending in Scotland as a share of GDP was lower than in the UK.

Total Estimated Public Spending

% of GDP

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Average

Scotland

41.7%

46.2%

44.2%

44.1%

45.1%

44.2%

UK

44.1%

47.0%

46.2%

44.8%

44.6%

45.4%

3. Current budget balance: On average over the past five years, Scotland had a stronger current budget balance than the UK as a whole.

Estimated Current Budget Balance

% of GDP

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Average

Scotland

0.6%

-7.1%

-5.7%

-3.1%

-5.9%

-4.3%

UK

-3.5%

-7.6%

-6.7%

-5.7%

-5.8%

-5.9%

4. Net fiscal balance: On average over the past five years, Scotland had a smaller net fiscal deficit than the UK as a whole.

Estimated Net Fiscal Balance

% of GDP

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Average

Scotland

-2.9%

-10.7%

-8.5%

-5.8%

-8.3%

-7.2%

UK

-6.9%

-11.0%

-9.3%

-7.6%

-7.3%

-8.4%

  • The net fiscal balance includes capital investment, such as the construction of roads, hospitals and schools, which yields benefits not just to current but also future taxpayers.
  • Public sector capital investment is higher in Scotland than the UK, with Scotland accounting for 12.3% of total UK capital investment in 2012-13.

5. Scotland’s relative fiscal position:

  • It is estimated that Scotland has been in a stronger fiscal position than the UK in four of the last five years.

  • In cash terms, Scotland’s relatively stronger fiscal position compared to the UK over the period 2008-09 and 2012-13 as a whole was equivalent to £8.3 billion (or £1,600 per capita).

6. North Sea revenues: Changes between 2011-12 and 2012-13

North Sea revenue decreased by 41.5% between 2011-12 and 2012-13. An above trend fall in oil and gas production and recent record levels of capital investment were the primary drivers -

  • The above trend fall in production reflected, in part, a series of unplanned production stoppages at several large gas fields (e.g. Elgin).

  • Capital investment in the North Sea continues this rise. While this reduces tax receipts in the short term, it will boost future production (and tax revenues). For example, Oil and Gas UK estimate that capital Investment in 2013 reached £14.4 billion – and has more than doubled since 2010.

  • Recent declines in production are expected to be reversed as new fields come online. Oil and Gas UK forecast that production will increase by 14% between 2013 and 2018.

7. Social protection expenditure

  • In each of the past five years, an estimated smaller percentage of Scotland’s tax revenues was spent on social protection, which includes the welfare state and pensions, compared to the UK.

  • Expenditure on social protection as a share of GDP has also been lower in Scotland than in the UK in each of the past 5 years.

Estimated Social Protection Spending as a Share of Tax Revenue

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Average

Scotland

33.5%

42.1%

40.0%

37.6%

42.3%

39.1%

UK

38.1%

43.4%

41.6%

41.7%

43.0%

41.6%


Key facts on Scotland’s Economy

  • Excluding oil, our GDP per head is similar to the UK figure (at 96.4% in 2012). Including oil, our GDP per head in 2012 was 11% above the UK. [Source: Quarterly National Accounts Scotland, and Office for National Statistics)
  • Over the past two years (covering the period 2011 Q3 to 2013 Q3) Scottish GDP grew by 2.4%. [Source: Gross Domestic Product 3rd Quarter 2013, Scottish Government)
  • Over the past two years the employment level has risen by 96,000 [Source: Office for National Statistics]
    • Over the past two years the unemployment level has fallen by 35,000  [Source: Office for National Statistics]

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