Moldova: a realignment
Sunday 23 August 2009By EU Reporter Correspondents
President Medvedev met with Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin, the world's only elected communist head of state, on August 21st. Discussions apparently centred on economic affairs, with the Russian President lamenting the deterioration in relations between the two nations in recent years.
Voronin, a 68 year old former baker, of Romanian descent, had been playing a dangerous game: he had upset the Russians by reneging on his support for their plans to federalise Transnistria in 2004, and subsequently ordered an economic blockade of the troubled region. He has also committed his country to increased integration with Europe, and co-operation with NATO; these are dangerous ambitions, as Georgian President Mikhail Sakashvilli discovered to his cost in August 2008.
However, in return for Russian support, Voronin has now abandoned his principled stance on Transnistria, and along with Medvedev and the Russian-installed "president" of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, he signed a Russian-drafted joint declaration, in March 2009. This was probably a very wise move, with elections in April of that year which were far from a foregone conclusion, and Voronin's position looked somewhat uncertain. The declaration primarily concerned ongoing negotiations over Transnistria's position, and ensured the continued presence of Russian troops in the region. Following an OSCE agreement in Istanbul in 1999, Russia was committed to withdrawing its troops. Voronin has made it possible for Moscow to stanewall, and delay any withdrawal. Indeed, Russia could manipluate the situation, and present its own forces as representing the will of the OSCE. Following the agreement, Medvedev went on television to praise Voronin for making the deal possible, thus giving him a much needed boost in the April elections.
On the one hand, we might conclude that Voronin's deal ensured the survival of Moldova's democracy by avoiding the possibility of Russian intervention, and the installation of another Kremlin sponsored "President". On the other hand, the EU must now accept that Russian troops are likely to remain on Moldovan soil for the foreseeable future. Europeans might ask how it is that Russia can choreograph events so skillfully whilst the EU remains blinkered and startled in the starting blocks. Moldova has expressed an interest in integrating with the EU, with which it shares borders, and yet Moscow has managed to draw the small nation back into its fold so deftly. In the early 90s, after the overthrow of the communist regime, there was talk of Moldova and Romania re-uniting, with 44% of Romanians in favour of such a move. Now the old Soviet era lines are being firmly re-established.
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