NATO and Ukraine: Declaration of enhanced co-operation
Monday 24 August 2009By EU Reporter Correspondents
On August 21st, NATO announced the signing of a “Declaration to Complement the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine” The document was signed by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and by Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO Ihor Sagach on behalf of the Ukrainian President. The Declaration gives the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) a central role to play in the process launched at the Bucharest Summit 2008, when Allied leaders agreed that in future, Ukraine “will become a NATO member”.
In January 2010, the Ukraine will commence its 5th Presidential elections since gaining independence from the Soviet Union. The last elections, in 2004, will always be remembered for the Orange Revolution that heralded the arrival of western style democracy in the country, much to the fury of the Kremlin.
The timing of this announcement of an increase in co-operation between Ukraine and NATO is likely to create an area of political debate that will highlight the pro-Kremlin position of Viktor Yanukovych, runner-up in 2004. He will be uncomfortable with this development, of course, but will find it difficult to defend his, or rather the Kremlin's, position. Whilst a majority of Ukrainians are opposed to NATO membership, they do favour increased co-operation with western Europe, and the declaration will surely be presented in that light. Ukrainian public opinion, and the forthcoming elections, offer a window of opportunity for the EU, which would like to strengthen ties with the Ukraine, particularly in the area of energy and fuel supplies.
Prime Minister and Presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko will need to choose her words very carefully. Having initially supported Ukrainian membership of the alliance, she then changed her position to reflect public opinion. With the incumbent President Yushchenko polling badly, she looks to be a strong contender for the office, but a second about-face on what may be one of the hottest topics in the campaign will be seized upon by her opponents as a weakness. The announcement that Ukraine "will become a NATO member" might be a little awkward for her.
Increased co-operation without full membership seems the most attractive option, both politically and economically: Ukraine has been hit very hard by the economic crisis, and the cost of upgrading its military to western standards would be prohibitive.
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