The Rise of Poland
Sunday 30 August 2009By EU Reporter Correspondents
On June 7th Poland went to vote for only the second time in European parliamentary elections. There were no major shocks to speak of and as was the trend throughout member states, turnout was low, the Left did not do well and eurosceptics gained an unprecedented number of seats. The election and its results were important, however, for a number of reasons: it put into stone the makeup of Polish party politics that has been in flux for so long; it was the first electoral test of the Tusk government elected a year and a half ago; and it at least gave the perception that Poland, after 5 years of membership, is an important player in Europe
The European parliamentary election campaign was a major issue in Poland and very few days went by without it being headline news. By its end archbishops, celebrities and both former presidents were making public calls to go and vote, and yet turnout was a disappointing 24.53%. This was an improvement on the previous election in 2004 (20.9%) but nonetheless an abject failure to excite and mobilise ordinary Poles.
The results saw Poles generally coalescing around the centre-right, eliminating the far-right and the liberals, voting out 4 parties from the Parliament. This means no more marginal parties like the activist farmers of Lepper’s Samoobrona and the nationalists of Giertych’s LPR. It effectively also signals the end of the Liberals of Geremek and Onyszkiewicz. While a shocking defeat at first glance, the results actually reflect the absorption of their electorates by the big parties that has been happening over several years. The governing Civic Platform (PO) has slowly taken over the liberal vote, while Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PiS) absorbed the electorate of the other nationalist parties, after two years of coalition with them until 2007.
Of the 50 mandates accorded to Poland, PO won 25, PiS 15, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) 7 and the Peasant Party (PSL) 3.
This set up of four main parties looks like it could remain stable. And however unsatisfactory that is for either of the sides, it indicates stability and is an achievement for a country that swapped governments almost annually in the nineties, then saw a coalition defeated and disappear from politics altogether, and then saw the governing Left crushingly defeated after their term. One should probably wait for the next general election to see whether this party stability will hold, but all indications point to there being little prospective change.
After his first major test, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has come out strengthened, declaring on election night: “it is a great thing to improve on parliamentary results of one and a half years ago, whilst governing in conditions of a global crisis.” His government coalition (PO-PSL) was voted in after a huge swing to PO in October 2007, following two chaotic years of Kaczynski government. Polls were hugely in his favour but they have proven to be very wrong for him before so the final result was a relief and a real vote of confidence: 44% of the popular vote and half the parliamentary mandates.
Tusk and his party’s stressed that support for PO would make them the strongest group in the EPP – the strongest group in the Parliament, whose grand conference was held in Warsaw in May. And what was only a possibility has now been confirmed: the nomination to a high-profile position for a Pole, in the form of President of the Parliament. Former Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek faced stiff competition from Mario Mauro of Italy, who conceding his candidacy has now been promised chairmanship of the Foreign Affairs Committee (formerly headed in fact, by a Pole). Although Buzek would have to share a five year term with Schulz of the Socialists, it is still seen a major Polish success, particularly following the failure of Radoslaw Sikorski’s nomination to the post of NATO Secretary General.
Poland also became centre-stage for the euro-sceptics with British Conservative David Cameron visiting a PiS rally, which ultimately led to the formation of a new European party. From a Polish view this seems prestigious for Kaczynski but the two parties do not actually have all that much in common. Polish opposition to the Lisbon Treaty, which was negotiated by President Kaczynski after all, is nowhere near on the scale of the British.
More controversially, Ganley’s Libertas put up candidates all over Poland from among the far right and even, controversially, gained the support of TVP, the national broadcaster. Libertas press conferences were covered often and Ganley became a household name. He even managed to recruit Lech Walesa to speak on his behalf (though he was booed by the Polish candidates). All this made a negligible impact, with Ganley winning no seats in Poland and the chairman of TVP having been since suspended in early July.
There is a growing expectation that Poles should play a greater role in European and world affairs. “I believe that from tomorrow we’ll be playing a greater role in Europe,” said Tusk on election night and with Buzek’s success he will want to keep the momentum going, most immediately with the nomination of another former Prime Minister Cimoszewicz to the presidency of the Council of Europe and the coming negotiation over Commissioners’ portfolios.
He will also be looking to the future with promotion of the Polish-initiated Eastern Partnership, the EU presidency in 2011 and European football championships in 2012. The only major event that could change PO’s dominance and the settled party set-up is the presidential election which, in any case, Tusk is likely to win. Poles have certainly gained respectability and confidence this year and will be expecting to be listened to more on the European stage from now on.
FROM THE JULY 2009 PRINT EDITION