War Games in Georgia: Bad Timing!
Thursday 20 August 2009By EU Reporter Correspondents
NATO exercises currently being conducted in Georgia are ill-timed and provocative, writes Gary Cartwright. The exercises are being justified on the grounds that they were planned before last August's conflict between Russia and Georgia. That may be so, but that they were allowed to continue represents either at best a massive error in judgement, or at worst a deliberate provocation. Russia may have been successful militarily in Georgia, but the adventure cost them credibility on the world stage, and ratcheted up east-west tensions. Speculation of Russian action in the Ukraine proved groundless, and the situation has calmed down, with attention being switched to security of fuel supply, a turn of events that at least factored the US out of the equation, allowing the Russians to relax. The situation remains tense, however, with many unresolved issues between Russia and her neighbours.
At such a time, Europe should be seeking to direct its policy towards Russia at helping to create a more stable situation: the Russians are reeling under the effect of collapsing fuel prices, having seemingly failed to diversify their economic base at all, and recent news that the EU is seeking alternative gas suppliers is not likely to help the already fractured relationship between the two.
To fan the flames, NATO exercises are taking place at a very difficult time. Georgia's President, Mikhail Saakashvili, is deeply unpopular, with civil unrest in the streets, and reports filtering through of a mutiny by a Georgian armoured battalion. Like Russia, Georgia needs calm and stability, not sabre-rattling by NATO. If this is all about propping up the vehemently pro-American Saakashvili on behalf of the US - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Nato of reverting to the "confrontational logic of the Cold War" - then serious questions must be asked.