Kazakhstan elections: Unchallenged choice

The serenity of the upcoming presidential elections in Kazakhstan is explained by an absence of a political struggle for victory on 26 April – everyone is sure that the incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev will renew his mandate, with his candidacy having been put forward by the National Assembly and immediately supported by all leading parties. The major motive for this continuity of leadership is rooted in fears of instability that political rivalry might bring as it did in the other post-Soviet state - the effects multiplied by economic crises hit hard in Ukraine. The electorate's choice for tested values seems sensible, especially in the absence of any ambitious opposition. Leading the country since 1989, then the First Secretary of the Communist party, Nazarbayev is managing to remain as a 'father of the nation'.

The uncompromising political competition in Ukraine, degrading into what many have called a 'hybrid war', motivated the political class in Kazakhstan to opt for the smooth continuation of the ongoing presidency of Nursultan Nazarbayev, focused on the realization of economic programmes of national development.

In times of global economic crisis and Western sanctions against Russia, the Kazakhstan economy started to experience serious difficulties, hit primarily by decreasing oil prices - an unfavourable conjuncture that was reflected in the slowing down of many projects, including the raw-material industries.

The national programme 'Nurly Zhol' put forward by Nazarbayev is designed to stabilize the economic situation in these turbulent times ; the national currency - the tenge - was strengthened in spite of the collapse of the Russian rouble, and remains an exception within the EurAsian Union.

The missing income in the state purse will inevitably lead to an increase in unemployment within the very same oil companies that were expected to become the major donors for the country's initiative of raising welfare standards. Anticipating redundancies, the trade unions have begun negotiations with the largest companies to avoid any kind of social unrest and radicalization of the unemployed, especially the youth.

The withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, leading to the intensification of drug trafficking and enlargement of the conflict zone in the Middle East, as well as the ongoing civil war in Syria and the rise of Islamic State (ISIL) are seen as potential impulses for radicalization with a further destabilization of the southern regions of Kazakhstan. These factors are to play a crucial rôle in supporting the Nazarbayev mandate's renewal to guarantee a multicultural, secular and tolerant Kazakhstan. In this aspect, the separation of the state and religion represents an interest for the ensemble of world powers, ensuring Kazakhstan is an effective defence barrier against the spread of terrorism and extermism. So far, the country reamins the only one to avoid any ethnic tensions or language struggles contaminating the rest of the post-Soviet space after the collapse of the USSR.

The multi-vectoral foreign policy conducted during the decades of Nazarbayev's leadership is also held in high esteem by Kazakhstanis enjoying co-operation with an ensemble of global players: the EU, Russia, US and China.

However, as one of the major architects of the EurAsian Union, Nazarbayev does not see the future of his country detached from Russia, considering difficulties as "temporary" and believing in a future "flourishing" with his traditional allies. The centuries-long symbiosis with Russia still largely shapes the political climate in Kazakhstan, but even by Kremlin standards the political competition remains only semi-existent, because all the politicians with potential prefer to play in the presidential team, profiling themselves as Nazarbayev's 'flock'. A few who oppose the incumbent president with nationalistic or anti-Russian slogans are considered as marginals by the overwhelming majority of Kazashtanis, representing around 140 ethnicities - the colourful patchwork of cultures and traditions, whose rights have been guaranteed without failure since independence.

From the tranquillity of the Kazakh vast steppe oobserving raising death toll and the movements of heavy artillery in Ukraine, the Kazakhstan electorate is determined to avoid the collisions of political competition associated in their eyes with instability, social unrest and violence.

However, the renewal of the mandate of Nazarbayev has its weaknesses as well: the entire nation is becoming dependent on health of an ageing 75-year-old leader, whose decline might provoke a fierce fight for power among those who, while they might position themselves with humour today as Nazarbayev's 'chickens', may yet turn into vultures. In view of the upcoming election this scenario is regarded as hypothetical, and the realities of life dictate the only path without deviation – in the absence of true rivals on 26 April Nursultan Nazarbayev will receive his fourth mandate with approximately the same number of votes as in the previous election in 2011, when 95% of voters trusted their future to his hands.