After Russia’s nuclear threat, what’s next?

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine tries to block plans to annex Russian-controlled southern and eastern Ukrainian territories have put the world on alert about the possibility of a nuclear confrontation. The scenario of a nuclear war is no longer just an unlikely hypothesis, writes Salem AlKetbi, UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.

It now seems necessary to factor it in when assessing the development of the Ukraine crisis. It would be grossly wrong to ignore this scenario, regardless of its likelihood. Putin is no longer just making hints, but is concerned about the prospect of military defeat, which he is in no way prepared to accept.

He will not hesitate to resort to any weapon, regardless of its destructiveness and consequences, if he feels that his forces have suffered certain defeat on Ukrainian soil and Moscow is convinced of the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

This was confirmed by statements that the Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons if national security is existentially threatened, justifying such use, and by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s assertion that the world has never been so close to nuclear war as it is now. There are other factors fueling fears of a nuclear showdown.

These include a lack of calm, wait-and-see, and emotional stability in decision-making in Russia, which seems to be in a state of great nervousness and tenseness, especially after news of the success of the Ukrainian military counteroffensive and Russian forces’ withdrawal.

The Kremlin consistently makes emotional moves that reflect a growing level of anger and a gradual loss of control over decision-making. Putin, a former intelligence spy who has often prided himself on his cunning, is easily provoked by Western provocations. He cannot show such restraint to avoid falling into the trap of widening the Ukraine conflict.

He lacks the diplomatic flexibility to manage this complex crisis in a way that allows his country to derive the greatest strategic benefit, as China did in managing the Taiwan crisis. This is due in large part to the historical body of Chinese wisdom from which Chinese leaders draw and learn how to manage major crises and emerge from them with minimal losses.

Given his get-tough nature, Putin takes a one-way street. He leaves the rest of the Russian officials no room to maneuver, even as he has one of the world’s most accomplished diplomats, Foreign Minister Lavrov, who has not been playing the influential role expected of him to improve his country’s position in this crisis, where his wealth of diplomatic experience is needed.

President Putin’s decision to partially mobilize and recall some three hundred thousand reserve troops fuels the enthusiasm of Atlantic leaders to inflict a “humiliating defeat” on Russia in Ukraine. Upsizing the Russian military contingent is an implicit recognition of the Russian military’s lack of effectiveness in Ukraine.

It is also claimed that it will withdraw and be defeated in several Ukrainian cities. There are objective reports of the poor performance of the Russian air force; its inability to enforce its air sovereignty is one of the reasons why the war has not yet been decided in Russia’s favor.

The Russian Air Force has failed to control Ukrainian airspace and hit targets despite the use of high-tech aircraft and fighters. In time, Russia’s inventory of modern aircraft will be depleted. Now the Kremlin must solve the problem of managing long-term warfare amid such military losses.

This in turn has to do with the ability to provide the necessary resources, especially at the human level. In addition, doubts surround the strategic stockpiles of Russian weapons and ammunition. All of this partly explains the nervousness associated with the threat of nuclear retaliation if Russian plans in Ukraine are blocked.

I believe that in the next phase, Russia will expand the theater of war on the ground to try to decide the war in its favor. Given the difficult situation most EU countries are in and the outrage over the decision to turn off the gas tap to these countries, escalation and counter-escalation in all its forms will be the next scenario.

The war has evolved from a limited military operation in Ukraine to an open war that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sancher has called a war against all of Europe, and the overwhelming US desire to exhaust Russia to limit its ability to support China in a possible confrontation on Taiwan and to disrupt Putin’s efforts to change the structure of the existing world order and undermine American hegemony over it.

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