Ukraine political merger raises question of snap general elections

The merger of political parties led by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko  and Kyiv's Mayor Vitaly Klitschko (pictured) has sparked speculation about the possibility of snap general elections.

The two parties have merged ahead of local elections due to take place across the country on 25 October though not in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

Klitschko, a former heavyweight boxing world champion, was elected to lead the merged party, under the probable name of 'Solidarity'.

Some sections of the Ukraine media report that the merger has increased the chances of an early general election and this in turn has fuelled speculation about the possible presidential candidates.

This all comes amid a backdrop of growing concern about the slow progress of internal reforms in Ukraine and an ever-declining GDP, which shrank by 17.6% in the first quarter of this year.

Recent polls show that 60% of the country disapproves of Poroshenko's job performance and 70% believe Ukraine is heading in the wrong direction.

The introduction this week of greater powers to Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine coincided with the worst violence in Kyiv since the government took power in February 2014.

One possible candidate in the presidential field is thought to be Mikhail Saakashvili who, in 2003, was the leader of the 'Rose Revolution' in Georgia, which eventually resulted in him becoming president. Saakashvili has been working with Poroshenkoas as a nonstaff adviser since February.

However, Saakashvili is currently wanted in Georgia on multiple charges. Another possible candidate is thought to be the 50-year-old Ukraine oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Firtash has been president of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine since November 2011. The FEU membership unites companies and enterprises collectively generating 70% of Ukraine's GDP.

Most recently, he founded the Agency for the Modernisation of Ukraine (AMU) which is meant to attract 300b US dollars in investment in order to reform and stabilise the country's economy. Its other heavyweight backers include former EU commissioner Lord Mandelson, German former finance minister Peer Steinbrueck and French ex-foreign minister Bernard Kouchner.

A spokesman at Ukraine's EU embassy, however, poured cold water on his electoral prospects, saying, "Mr Firtash is quite controversial figure for Ukrainian politics. Even if it could be possible to imagine that he become the candidate for the elections, I doubt that somebody will vote for him.”

She also dismissed speculation about snap elections, either presidential or parliamentarian, as "groundless rumours" adding: "So far there are no preparations at all. these scenarios are not on the table.”

Recent opinion polls in Ukraine show a surge in public support for ex-prime minister Yulya Tymoshenko, who leads the Fatherland party, along with significant gains for the Samompomich faction in Ukraine's parliament.

Polling ahead of next month's municipal elections also reveal that support for the current Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the People's Front he heads, is seriously on the wane. The party is polling below the threshold – and could be wiped out completely in the election.

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