European Council: Cold Turkey

There was no surprise that yesterday’s (15 0ctober) European Council on a dank and miserable day in Brussels was going to be dominated by one issue, that of migration. Those discussions centred on finalizing the EU’s Action Plan with Turkey, aimed at stemming the flow of migrants from Syria into the EU; initially requested at an informal summit in September and presented in draft form on 6 October, the final details of the draft proposal were unveiled to leaders rather late in the day, due to a delay in negotiations caused by the bombings in Ankara.

After another long evening’s negotiations, President Juncker triumphantly announced that he had in his hand a piece of paper, an agreement had been reached on the ‘exact content of the joint EU-Turkey Action Plan’, adding only one small caveat: that the Council would now have to reach agreement on the financing to support the action plan. That financing is estimated at €3 billion, so between now and the Valleta summit on migration in November, the EU-28 are going to have to take another very good look under their mattresses to somehow find this money.

The shooting of an Afghan migrant trying to cross into Bulgaria from Turkey on the evening of the summit underlined the urgency of this issue and prompted Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov to leave the EU summit to return to Sofia. Bulgaria shares a long and porous border with Turkey, which is proving near-impossible to police effectively.

Turkey agreement

The agreement with Turkey is extensive and it is clear that President Tayyip Erdoğan, who is facing elections on 1 November, has received major concessions from the EU. To put Turkey’s situation into context, it has spent more than €6.5bn of its own resources providing humanitarian aid and support to refugees. While the EU baulks at agreeing to relocate more than 160,000 refugees, Turkey has seen a massive influx of refugees estimated at more than 2.5 million people (2.2 million Syrians and 0.3 million Iraqis).

Erdoğan has managed to use the EU’s need for support on migration to leverage a ‘comprehensive’ agreement, based on "shared responsibility, mutual commitments and delivery". In other words, the agreed EU-Turkey joint Action Plan goes well beyond migration. Some of concessions include accelerating their visa liberalization road map with the EU and the full implementation of the readmission agreement – with progress by spring 2016; increased political and financial support and a re-energizing of accession negotiations with the EU.

Other discussions centred on reinforcing FRONTEX and improving Greek reception facilities. There was nothing in the conclusions about the need to reform the Dublin Convention, where asylum-seekers must apply for asylum in the first country they enter, despite Merkel including this in her speech to the European Parliament only last week. In fact, the Council’s conclusions clearly insist on the reinstatement of Dublin transfers to Greece by the end of 2015.

The EU reaffirmed its commitment to Schengen, hoping that the reintroduction of border controls by Germany, Austria and Slovenia can be lifted in the coming months and that the Schengen border-free area can return to normal. In the meantime, the Commission is gently looking into whether these actions of these countries were "proportionate".

Any attempt to stem migration across the Mediterranean while Libya remains in a state of chaos is slim, therefore the UN announcement on the creation of a Government of National Accord was greeted with a small sigh of relief. The EU reiterated its support, both political and financial, for the new government once it takes office.

EMU

The Council ‘took stock’ of the five Presidents' report on completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union. Taking stock of course is a synonym for doing little, or nothing. To be fair, the first stage outlined in the report is called ‘deepening through doing’, so I suppose for the moment they just have to get on with things. Those outside the eurozone reiterated their request that any developments should not damage the single market. This, of course, is a frequent lament of those in the UK. Which takes us to the other damp squib of this meeting – Brexit.

Brexit

While the UK’s forthcoming referendum (sometime before the end of 2017) is tabled on almost every EU agenda these days, there was a decision welcomed by all – including the UK – to kick this can further down the road.

Those hoping for some elucidation on Britain’s pre-referendum negotiations have been fed a largely vague list of ‘demands’. The UK wants more sovereignty, so we could be looking at some sort of add-on protocol on the UK opting out of ‘ever closer union’. This will be pretty meaningless, but might please the British tabloids. At the same time, the UK is calling for ever-closer union for those in the eurozone, as long as they don’t upset the City of London – after all, if the eurozone continues in its current malaise it certainly isn’t good for the British economy – expect a headline about Cameron defending the British financial sector. The UK also wants national parliaments to be able to issue ‘red cards’ on EU legislation (which is an advance on the yellow card system in place, where national parliaments can ask for a proposal to be reconsidered). We are assuming that the red card, like the yellow, will require the support of a third of the EU’s national parliaments. This isn’t likely to be used much – even if it is agreed on – but it will no doubt make a great headline in the football-loving papers. Finally, there was something about Britain wanting a stronger focus on jobs and growth, because the rest of the EU – despite Juncker’s posturing – is deeply opposed to more jobs and more economic growth...and with that, everyone decided to go home a day early.

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