New ECFR poll: Europeans open to Ukraine joining the EU despite security risks, but cool on further enlargement of the bloc ahead of crucial European Council summit

●    ‘Flash poll’ by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals Europeans are open-minded to Ukraine’s accession, despite economic and security risks from such a move. There is also considerable support for Moldova and Montenegro joining the EU.

●    There is widespread opposition, however, to Turkey joining the EU, and cool responses to the candidacies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.

●    The poll suggests there is a clear divide between ‘old’ and ‘new’ EU members on the timing of any enlargement of the bloc - with a prevailing view, in Austria, Denmark, Germany and France that the EU should not be looking to add any new member states at this moment, compared to Romania and Poland, where support for enlargement is strong.

●    ECFR senior fellows, Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina, argue that, while the geopolitical arguments in favour of enlargement are stronger today than they were 20 years ago, public opinion has not kept pace. To reconcile this, Buras and Morina call on EU leaders to send a strong message at this week’s European Council summit, by giving the green light to accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and setting out a roadmap for institutional reforms that will allay citizen concerns and start the process of enlargement for all candidate countries.

Europeans are divided on the benefits of EU enlargement and have mixed feelings towards the potential admission of Ukraine, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey as member states, according to a new survey published today by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

ECFR’s multi-country opinion poll, commissioned through YouGov and Datapraxis in six EU member states (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, and Romania), found that, while there is considerable support for Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, Moldova and Montenegro, being admitted to the European bloc, there are deep economic and security concerns relating to their accession. There is also coolness towards the candidacy of Turkey, in particular, and towards those of Georgia and most countries of the Western Balkans.

On a more positive note, acknowledging the costs of enlargement doesn’t preclude support. Among the respondents who perceive Ukraine’s enlargement to have a small negative impact on the EU’s security, 44% support the accession of Ukraine while only 27% believe it should not be able to join the EU. And among respondents who see a small negative impact of Ukraine’s accession on the EU’s economy, 40% say it should be able to join the EU (while just 31% say it shouldn’t) – a clear indication of the unwavering European support towards the country.

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The dataset suggests there is a clear divide in how citizens view the subject of enlargement - with those in ‘older’ EU member states, including Austria, France, Denmark and Germany, more likely to object to a widening of membership, while those in ‘newer’ member states, including Poland and Romania, see expansion in a more favourable light. It also reveals regional divergences of opinion on the prospective timing of enlargement - with fewer than a third of citizens of the ‘older’ bloc of member states (Denmark 29%, Austria 28%, Germany 28% and France 27%) expressing the view that the EU should be looking to add new members ‘at this moment’, compared to about half of respondents in the ‘newer’ member states (Poland 48% and Romania 51%). The candidacy of Turkey is held in particularly low regard, across Europe, with more than half of those surveyed (51%) by ECFR indicating that the country ‘should not be able to join the EU’. Opinion is also cool among respondents of the six member states towards Kosovo (37%, a plurality, against), Serbia (35%, a plurality, against) and Albania (35%, a plurality, against), and their respective pitches for entry. 

In their analysis of the survey findings, ECFR senior policy fellows, Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina, suggest that there is a pressing need to “consolidate and secure the European space”, against a backdrop of conflict on Europe’s borders. They call on EU leaders, who will gather in Brussels this week, to commence accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and to establish a timeline of next steps for all other aspiring candidate countries. Doing this, together with wider institutional reforms, will help reconcile citizen “scepticism” about the bloc’s ability to absorb new members and make clear why expansion is “imperative to the future of Europe”, according to Buras and Morina.

The findings come after ECFR published a power audit of member states’ positions on EU enlargement in November. That study indicates that there is broad agreement among governments on the need for enlargement as a geopolitical necessity, but also notes major disagreements and explores how these can be reconciled.

Key findings from ECFR’s multi-country survey on enlargement include:

●    Europeans are open to the idea of Ukraine joining the EU. Support for Ukraine’s entry to the EU prevails in Denmark (50%) and in Poland (47%), with roughly divided opinion in Romania (32% support vs. 29% oppose), Germany (37% support vs. 39% oppose), and France (29% support vs. 35% oppose). Austria is an outlier on the question of admitting Ukraine into the European bloc, with a majority (52%) opposing its possible accession, and only 28% in favour. 

●    However, there are concerns that such a development could pose economic and security risks to the bloc and its member states – more so than the admittance of candidate countries from the Western Balkans. 45% of those surveyed by ECFR believe that Ukraine joining the EU would have a ‘negative impact’ on the security of the EU, against 25% who see it as having a ‘positive impact’. 39% also believe Ukraine’s accession would have a ‘negative impact’ on the security of their country – while only 24% expect a ‘positive impact’. The accession of countries of the Western Balkans carries comparatively less risk, according to respondents of the survey - with opinion split at, 33% and 23%, respectively, between those who see it as having a ‘negative’ or ‘positive’ impact on the security of the bloc.

●    There are also fears about the impact enlargement could have on the EU’s political power in the world. Poland and Denmark are the most optimistic on this question, with a plurality of 43% and 35% of citizens, respectively, believing Ukraine’s accession would have a positive impact for the EU’s political power in the world – and just 21% and 19%, respectively, expecting a negative impact. Meanwhile, a prevailing view in Austria (42%) and Germany (32%) is that Ukraine’s accession would have a negative impact on the EU’s political power in the world; and those in France and Romania are split in their opinion, with 24% and 31%, respectively, believing it would have a positive impact, and 28% in both member states believing it would have a negative impact.

●    Divides exist on when any potential enlargement should take place. ECFR’s data shows that citizens, on average, are divided into three equal parts on the timings of any expansion of the EU: between those who think enlargement should proceed today (35%); those who don’t think the EU should enlarge at this moment (37%); and those who are indifferent on this point or don’t know (28%).

●    There is also a split between ‘old’ and ‘new’ EU countries on the broader subject of admitting new member states. Of the countries surveyed, respondents in Austria (53%), Germany (50%) and France (44%) are most likely to hold the view that the EU should not pursue any immediate enlargement. In Romania, a majority (51%), and in Poland, a plurality (48%), believe the EU should be looking to add new member states. Denmark is somewhat of an outlier among the ‘old’ member states, with just 37% opposing any immediate enlargement – although this is still a prevailing view.

●    There is strong opposition to the possibility of Turkey joining the EU. 51% of those surveyed across the six countries oppose the idea of Turkey being able to join the EU. Fewer than 1 in 5 of respondents (19%) would support any forward movement on Turkish membership.

●    Europeans are also cool on Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia becoming future member states. Looking jointly at the six countries polled, fewer than 30% of respondents expressed support for any of the abovementioned countries being admitted to the EU. Support for accession was softest for Kosovo (20% ‘should be able to join’ vs. 37% ‘should not be able to join’), Albania (24% ‘should be able to join vs. 35% ‘should not be able to join’), Serbia (25% should ‘be able to join’ vs. 35% ‘should not be able to join), and Georgia (25% should ‘be able to join’ vs. 31% ‘should not be able to join). Opinion is split on the possible admittance of North Macedonia (26% ‘should be able to join’ vs. 27% ‘should not be able to join’) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (28% ‘should be able to join’ vs. 29% ‘should not be able to join’).

●    In the cases of Moldova and Montenegro, there is support for their future admission. For both countries, there is more support, than opposition, to their joining the EU - 30% ‘should be able to join’ vs. 28% ‘should not be able to join’ for Moldova, and 30% ‘should be able to join’ vs. 25% ‘should not be able to join’ for Montenegro.

●    Many Europeans see no economic benefit to Ukraine’s accession. With the exception of Poland and, to a lesser extent, Romania, where pluralities (43% in Poland, and 37% in Romania) see a positive economic impact for the EU’s economy, there is weak recognition elsewhere of any inward economic benefit to the bloc from Ukraine becoming a member state. The survey suggests that, at present, many citizens believe the potential enlargement of the EU will have no impact at all or carry some cost to the European economy. This is especially true in Denmark and Austria, where 54% and 46% of respondents expressed the view that Ukraine’s entry would have a ‘negative impact’ on the economy of the EU.

Commenting, Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow and the head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, said: “While this week’s European Council will focus on pathways to EU membership for Ukraine and other candidate countries, the debate around how this can be achieved, in practice, has scarcely begun. Geopolitical rhetoric from Brussels is masking deep concerns in member states about the potential consequences of enlargement and widespread scepticism about the EU’s ability to absorb new members. To reconcile possible schisms, and give their efforts some chance of success, EU leaders should consider establishing a concrete timeline for the accession of new member states. This would provide space for the bloc to complete institutional reforms, build up resilience, and engage the public on why this strategy is imperative for Europe.”

Engjellushe Morina, senior policy fellow of ECFR’s ‘Wider Europe Programme’ and specialist on EU enlargement, added: “This week’s EU summit might be the most consequential of the bloc’s recent history. All eyes will be on whether accession talks for Ukraine and other candidate countries are finally given the green light. Such a move would align with public opinion in many cases, and, perhaps more importantly for the EU, send a clear message to Vladimir Putin that his efforts to turn the tide in Ukraine, and expand his influence across the European neighbourhood, will face new bulwarks to success."

About ECFR

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is an award-winning, pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, its objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate across Europe on the development of coherent and effective European values-based foreign policy. ECFR is an independent charity and funded from a variety of sources. For more details, please click here.

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