#Brexit: Brexit does matter to Italy

At the moment, the possibility of Brexit and the discussion being held on 18-19 February at the European Council in Brussels is not a hot topic in Italy, writes Giacomo Fracassi. However, many Italians and also Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi are certainly paying attention to the situation.

A quick glance at newspaper and TV news in Italy reveals how little the country cares for this topic. Most of the media are busy with national politics. Recently, the only time when European politics entered the public debate had been when Renzi was advocating for a stronger role for Italy. In a typical Italian fashion, the EU is debated only in its interaction with Italy and not for more general topics, unless they are of great importance like the Greek crisis of last summer.

However, despite the irrelevance in the eyes of the general public, Brexit does matter for Italy. If not to the country, at least to a substantial number of Italians. In this period of economical uncertainty, the UK has been by far the most attractive country for young expats. Officially around 250,000 Italians are registered in the UK. However, this number is incorrect, because there are at least another 250,000 unregistered expats in the UK, pushing the number of Italians to around half a million, a good half of which lives in London. Many Italians made the UK their home, with high profile jobs and moreover no intention of coming back to Italy, where youth unemployment is still very high. All these people are looking at Brexit with justified worry. What will happen if Britain leaves the EU? Will all the Italians (or all the Europeans citizens) became overnight illegal immigrants? This aspect has not been clearly discussed and surely will become a hot topic during the electoral period, also given the number of Britons living abroad in the European Union, currently 2 million.

Politically speaking, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is ambiguously supporting David Cameron in his requests to the European Union. This may come as a surprise from an outsider perspective: not only is Renzi's Democratic Party the biggest centre-left party in the European Parliament, but the party is the only major political party explicitly pro-European in Italy. The centre-right parties are all more or less Eurosceptic, with Berlusconi's Forza Italia being the mildest one and the Lega Nord being the strongest one. Even the post-ideological Five Star Movement has a hard Eurosceptic's line, supporting the UKIP in the Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group (EFD). They are also trying to obtain a referendum on the EU, specifically about whether or not Italy should remain in the eurozone or go back to its own currency (despite the fact that this is not possible according to current European treaties).

Just yesterday, Gianni Pittella, member of the Democratic Party and president of the S&D in the European Parliament, said “if some members of the EU want to integrate with common policies, they can do so without the UK putting boundaries. If the UK wants to integrate, fine. If it doesn't want to, is free not to, but it can't block the others from going forward [with integration].” A statement that, if not harsh, is at least clear in its implications: the UK has to choose for its own future in the EU but can't impose its view on the rest of the member states. This speech, made by one of the most respected Italian politicians in the European Parliament, is perfectly in line with the view of Renzi and his government over European matters.

So why does Renzi support Cameron?

The main reason is utterly political: over the past months Renzi began questioning the current German-led policies, asking for more flexibility and a definitive end of the austerity measurements still in place. Far from wanting the end of the Union, Renzi talked of a reformed Union.

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However, despite Renzi best intentions, Italy is still seen as an unreliable partner and doesn't have a strong leverage in the European Union. Thus, Renzi started looking around for allies among other European leaders, in order to create a front in contraposition with the current German-French leadership.

Despite having completely different views on the EU, Cameron still shares the will of change the EU. This makes the British PM a perfect partner for Renzi. And also for Cameron, the support of Renzi is important as he needs to have some countries if not fully on his side at least not openly hostile. Renzi is among those who call for a compromise deal, supporting Donald Tusk's counterproposals as a good deal.

For this crucial European Summit, Renzi can't and won't diverge with the general directive of reaching the best agreement to maintain the UK in the EU, best agreement that has not to harm Italy's interest. Especially the non-euro protecting request is not very well seen in Italy (but also in France), because it gives special treatment to one country and create a dangerous precedent. The last statement of Renzi on the topic clarify that Italy won't renounce to the centrality of the Euro and make it clear that Italy wants strongly to reaffirm the direction of Europe.

The long-term aim of Renzi is to have Cameron on his side once Italy will present its stability law to the European Union, in order to have more flexibility to boost Italy's slow recover. It is a big gamble for Italy because in the case of Brexit, not only Italy will lose a potential ally, but will compromise its image with other member states.

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