Past, present, and future of violence in Bangladesh and its strategic impact

After struggle and strife for years resulting in the death and migration of millions, East Pakistan became a separate nation of Bangladesh in 1971. In a 2010 article entitled Bangladesh War’s Toll on Women Still Undiscussed, the author states that between 200,000 to 400,000 women were raped in the months preceding the formation of Bangladesh. Since then, Bangladesh has experienced political instability and violence due to external and internal factors that have profoundly shaped its present state. Today, Bangladesh is a place of strategic importance, who’s present and future will remain guided by both internal and external factors, writes Professor Dheeraj Sharma, director, IIM Rohtak.

The recent political turmoil involving Sheikh Hasina and her government is not an isolated phenomenon but a continuation of a long-standing pattern of unrest that has plagued the country since its inception. From coups and assassinations to the rise and fall of political parties, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led the independence movement and became the country's first president. Rahman was revered as the "Father of the Nation". He spoke of India's indelible support in achieving a free nation for the Bengalis of East Pakistan, who had suffered atrocities from the Pakistani army. USA’s support for West Pakistan against Bangladesh was also noted. However, Rahman's administration faced immediate challenges due to several internal and external factors. Manufactured internal dissent and externally supported political opposition became the order of the day.

On August 15, 1975, the fragile state of the nation was exploited by the armed forces. A coup orchestrated by a faction of the military resulted in mass violence. The entire family of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in their home except for his two daughters of which one is Sheikh Hasina. The coup was allegedly orchestrated with the support of armed forces by Khondaker Mostaq Ahmad, an Awami League politician who was earlier an ally of Mujibur Rahman. After the assassination, Mostaq quickly usurped the presidency, seizing control of the government amid the chaos. His rise to power marked a significant violent upheaval in Bangladesh's fledgling political landscape.

Nonetheless, Khondaker Mostaq Ahmad's presidency was short-lived. Less than three months after he assumed power, he was overthrown in another coup on November 3, 1975. The coup was led by Major General Khaled Mosharraf. Major General Mosharraf, concerned about the deterioration of army discipline due to mutinous officers issuing orders from the palace, sought to act swiftly. As intra-military confrontation seemed impending, Muhammad Ghulam Tawab, the Bangladesh Air Force Chief appointed by the rebel regime, successfully negotiated with the mutinous officers. The mutinous officers agreed to step down in exchange for safe passage to Thailand. But, before exiting Bangladesh, the mutinous officers ran amok. Reports indicate that they also murdered four prominent leaders of the Bangladesh Awami League—Syed Nazrul Islam, the former Vice President, and acting President; Tajuddin Ahmad and Muhammad Mansur Ali, both former Prime Ministers; and Abul Hasnat Muhammad Qamaruzzaman, the former Home Minister—while they were held in prison during the time of coup.

This political upheaval continued for just about a week, and another coup took place on November 7, 1975 coup, which resulted in the assassination of Major General Khaled Mosharraf. It is alleged that Colonel Abu Taher led the coup with support from the Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal resulting in the formation of a military junta interim government led by Chief Justice Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayem.  On his resignation from the position of President of Bangladesh, Major General Ziaur Rahman officially took over as President in 1977.

Ziaur Rahman's rule, initially characterized by martial law, saw some political and economic changes. Ziaur Rahman founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in 1978 to legitimize his regime and solidify his position. He maintained tight control over the political landscape, suppressing opposition parties and dissent. His government curtailed freedoms of speech and press, and political repression became a hallmark of his administration. Rahman's tenure also saw the rise of anti-Hindu sentiments. His policies and rhetoric often targeted the Hindu minority, fostering an environment of intolerance and discrimination. This included institutional changes such as attempts to replace the national anthem as Rabindranath Tagore, a Hindu, wrote it. Widespread marginalization and violence against Hindus impacted their participation in public life, resulting in a decline in the Hindu population from about 20% to about 12% between 1971 and 1981.

Ziaur Rahman's presidency ended on May 30, 1981, with another military coup. Ziaur Rahman was assassinated during the coup, and thereafter, Major General Abdus Sattar became the acting President. Sattar's tenure was marked by political instability, violence, and narrow effectiveness. The political legacy of Ziaur Rahman was carried forward by his wife, Khaleda Zia, as the head of BNP.

A few months later, in March 1982, General Hussain Muhammad Ershad led another coup and assumed power. Ershad established a new military government, initially imposing martial law but later introducing a quasi-democratic system with limited political reforms. Although Ershad ruled dictatorially, the political landscape of Bangladesh saw the presence of three main political parties and a rise in the political rivalry between them basis their strength of association with various factions of the army.

The Jatiya Party, founded by Ershad himself, was the ruling party during his tenure, supporting his regime and playing a pivotal role in his administration. The Awami League, headed by Sheikh Hasina, was a significant opposition party during Ershad's rule. Awami League received some national and international support, helping it to become the principal opposition to Ershad's military regime. The BNP, led by Khaleda Zia, played coy, neither supporting nor opposing the military regime. Ershad ruled with an iron hand as the rivalry between Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia kept the public involved.

The end of Ershad's military rule came in December 1990, as widespread protest with tacit foreign support forced General Ershad to resign, leading to the establishment of civilian governance. The 1991 elections saw Khaleda Zia of the BNP become Prime Minister, with Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League taking office in 1996 after the BNP lost elections. The alternating rule of Hasina and Zia characterized the 1990s and early 2000s, marked by intense political rivalry and accusations of corruption. Khaleda Zia became the Prime Minister in 1991, followed by Sheikh Hasina from 1996-2001. Khaleda Zia again became Prime Minister from 2001-2006. Khaleda Zia strengthened Bangladesh’s relationship with China by securing significant funding from China. In 2006, President Iajuddin Ahmed assumed power as Chief Advisor of the caretaker government, resulting widespread violence and complete disorder in the country.

In 2007, Chief Advisor Fakhruddin Ahmed led this interim government, which was tasked with overseeing elections and restoring order. Fakhruddin Ahmed's tenure was marked by political repression and crackdowns on opposition figures, reflecting bedlam in Bangladesh. The 2008 elections saw the return of democratic governance under Sheikh Hasina's leadership. Her tenure has faced criticism for allegations of authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and manipulation of the electoral process. The ongoing rivalry between the Awami League and BNP has continued to shape Bangladeshi politics, with frequent clashes and accusations of human rights abuses. Mr. Muhammad Yunus, the present caretaker of the government of Bangladesh, campaigned against Sheikh Hasina and also floated a political party to stake his claim for the leadership of Bangladesh.

Since then, in the fifteen years of Sheikh Hasina's rule, there has been considerable economic development. According to a recent article published in the New York Times, "Bangladesh put its eggs in one economic basket. Now, a reckoning", the author highlights how Hasina's narrowed focus on the garment industry significantly boosted the country's economic growth. Bangladesh's annual GDP increased, surpassing 7 percent in some years during her tenure. The economic progress of Bangladesh during the regime of Sheikh Hasina was documented by many financial, economic, and banking institutions across the world.

However, in August 2024, merely months into her fourth term, Sheikh Hasina faced unprecedented political turmoil, leading to her departure from the country with a notice of less than an hour. The real reasons are probably unknown. However, it is evident again that both external and internal factors have played a role. While public discontent played a significant role, the intricate dynamics of the political crisis, including potential internal conflicts and external pressure, are not fully understood. In addition, many contend that Sheikh Hasina may have been assassinated if she had not fled the country. Several contend that she was given a safe passage on account of her family relationship with General Waker-Uz-Zaman through his wife. The internal discontent centered on the reservation is only the tip of the iceberg that resulted in Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Below is a table 1 that presents a summary of a few important articles that show the shifting relationship between Bangladesh and China, Bangladesh and USA, and Bangladesh and Myanmar. The shifting relationship pattern could possibly be an external factor in Bangladesh’s present situation. Overall, table 1 shows that Bangladesh was possibly attempting to create stronger links with China and distancing itself from the USA.

The history of Bangladesh since its independence reveals a persistent pattern of political instability. From the assassination of leaders and military coups to the formation and fragmentation of political parties, the country's political landscape has been marked by recurring unrest. The recent challenges faced by Bangladesh are not isolated incidents but part of a broader historical continuum of instability. Rising fundamentalism, radicalism, and foreign interests may be key factors that need to be examined. Understanding this historical context is crucial for grasping the current political environment and addressing the underlying issues contributing to the ongoing unrest. As Bangladesh navigates this tumultuous period, the lessons from its past will be instrumental in shaping a more stable and prosperous not just for Bangladesh but for the entire region. Unstable Bangladesh will have a profound impact on India, Burma, and all other countries in that region.

Bangladesh remains strategically important to the world because of its access to the Bay of Bengal and the controversial St Martin’s Islands. According to an article entitled “Bangladesh and Burma send warships into Bay of Bengal”, published in The Guardian on 4^th November 2008, the islands have 14 trillion cubic feet of gas. Hence, it was stated in the article that Bangladesh sent a British-made frigate, the BNS Kopothakka, to join three other warships to save the islands. St. Martin’s Island have been a part of Bangladesh since its agreement with Myanmar in 1974. In 2012, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea concurred with the Bangladeshi claim. St Martin’s Island is near the Strait of Malacca, which arguably controls 60% of the global maritime trade and is the gateway of trade for many countries, including China.

Published report of Directorate of Intelligence of the USA in 1983 states that Bangladesh had a minor role in overall strategic U.S. policy. However, in the last decades or so this seems to have changed. Bangladesh’s role in overall U.S. policy may have enlarged. Rising U.S. interest in Bangladesh could possible create a counter-balance for rising Chinese influence in the region. Additionally, the U.S. has economically supported Bangladesh for several decades and may find a stable Bangladesh more useful. From the Indian perspective, American presence could be leveraged to create a strategic advantage from a security standpoint. Also, American presence may be viewed better in several Indian quarters than Chinese presence. Recent developments such as India’s consent for a U.S. Congressional delegation to visit the Dalai Lama, backing for Philippines in the South China Sea, and non-participation in Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit could all be considered as signals of India response. Therefore, end to violence in Bangladesh could perhaps be shaped through a unified, determined, and concerted effort of India and the USA.

*Views expressed are personal and research assistance was provided by Annie Singh Batra.

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