Putin and Lukashenko dwell on co-operation, not Ukraine war

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Belarusian counterpart on Monday (19 December) to celebrate closer ties. Putin was in Minsk for the first visit since 2019, but did not mention the conflict in Ukraine at a news conference.

Russian forces used Belarus to launch their attack on Kyiv, Ukraine in February. There has been Russian military activity there since then.

Serhiy Nayev, commander of Ukrainian joint forces, stated that he believes the Minsk negotiations would address "further aggression towards Ukraine and the wider involvement of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the operation against Ukraine in particular, but also on the ground".

However, none of the journalists invited spoke to Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko about the war. He has repeatedly stated that his country would not be drawn into Ukraine.

They then turned their attention to an ever closer economic, industrial, and defense alignment between the two former Soviet states – already formally allies in a somewhat nebulous Union - as well to Sunday's World Cup soccer final.

The majority of Belarus' political opposition is now in exile, jail or silence. They fear a creeping Russian annexe or "absorption", which would be devastating for its smaller Slavic neighbor. Russia has also been affected by the sweeping Western economic sanctions.

The idea was rejected by both Putin and Lukashenko.

Putin stated that Russia has no interest in taking on anyone. "This is simply not a matter of expediency. It is not a takeover. It's a matter for policy alignment."

When Ned Price, spokesperson for the US State Department, was asked about the comment, he said that it should be viewed as the "heights of irony" because it came from "a leader who seeks at the moment, right now to violently absorb his peaceful neighbor."

He said that Washington would continue to monitor closely whether Belarus would offer additional support for Putin, and would respond "appropriately", if it did.

'OLDER BROTHER'

Lukashenko once called Putin an "older brother", but later praised Russia for being a friend that "held out its hands to us", providing Belarus oil and gas at a discounted price.

He said: "Russia can manage without our help, but we cannot (manage) without Russia."

Even though Putin and Lukashenko met many times this year it was Putin's first visit to Minsk since the COVID pandemic, a wave pro-democracy protests that Lukashenko defeated in 2020 and the COVID pandemic.

Fears in Kyiv that Putin might pressure Lukashenko to open a new front in Russia’s faltering invasion in Ukraine have fueled fears that Lukashenko is a pariah of the West and that he depends on Putin for survival.

Valery Zaluzhniy (the top Ukrainian general) told the Economist that Russia had 200,000 troops ready for a major offensive. This could be from the east, the south, or Belarus. It is more likely to come in spring.

Minsk and Moscow have established a joint military unit in Belarus. They also held many exercises. Last week, three Russian warplanes as well as an airborne early warning/control aircraft were sent to Belarus.

Dmitry Peskov of the Kremlin, speaking to Russian media agencies before the meeting, described suggestions that Moscow wanted Minsk to join the conflict as "stupid, unfounded fabrications".

After a larger meeting, which also included their foreign and defense ministers, the one-to-one meeting between Putin & Lukashenko took place.

The Belarusian veteran leader claimed that there was agreement on a new price to supply Russian gas but refused to give details until his government had discussed it.

He thanked Putin and promised to upgrade Belarus' Russian-built military aircrafts and to supply Belarus with nuclear-capable Iskander-M tactical rocket systems to protect itself from what he called the threat of the West.

He said: "You've taken a decisive step towards Belarusian security."

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