EU agricultural markets remain resilient

Amid global uncertainties, EU agricultural markets remain generally resilient, according to the summer 2025 edition of the short-term outlook report for EU agricultural markets, published today by the Commission.

The report forecasts that cereal and oilseed production are expected to rise, helping to improve the EU's trade balance, while olive oil production is recovering sharply and milk deliveries remain stable. EU cereal production is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025/26, with cereal exports up 26% and imports down 19%. Poultry production is forecast to increase by 1.8%, supported by growing demand. However, production prospects are on a downward trend for sugar (–8%), wine (expected to hit a 20-year low in the 2024/25 period) and, less so, for ruminant meat. EU beef prices stay historically high. With an expected production decline due to smaller herds, the EU supply could become tighter. The EU sheep and goat meat production could decline by 2%, leading to declining meat exports and increasing imports amid high prices resulting from tight supply and stable demand. The EU pigmeat production is projected to stay stable, enjoying steady demand.

Fruit and vegetables show diverse developments due to adverse weather conditions, with peach and nectarine output down 5.8% and apple production expected to fall by 4%. On the other hand, the EU production of oranges is set to increase by 4.6% from record lows in the previous season.

The outlook remains subject to risks linked to geopolitical conflicts, rising trade tensions, and climate variability. However, despite high food inflation, input costs have recently stabilised and yield prospects for winter crops are promising.

More details are available online.

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