EU

PollWatch 2014: A dead heat between Left and Right as campaign hots up

Published

12 years ago

April 11, 2014

For detailed results per country and methodology, go to pollwatch2014.eu The gap between the centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group and the centre-right Group of the European People’s Party has disappeared in the latest PollWatch 2014 prediction.

The Socialists – who led in the first three predictions – are now on 212 seats in the European Parliament, equal with a resurgent EPP in the latest forecast by PollWatch 2014, a project developed by VoteWatch Europe in partnership with Burson-Marsteller and Europe Decides.Within the Socialists & Democrats Group, the German delegation would be third, behind the Italians (29 seats) and the British (27 seats).As for the other groups, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Group remains in third place on 62 seats, seven ahead of the European United Left / Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) Group. However, given the model used to develop the forecast, and the closeness of the results, there is a one-in-four chance of the radical left being ahead of the Liberals.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group gains seats in comparison with the previous forecast and is now on 46 seats – but still only from six member states (below the threshold for forming a group). Indeed, the British Conservatives and Polish Law and Justice would make up all but six of the Group’s seats.

The Greens / European Free Alliance Group remains on 38 seats, with the Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) Group up slightly from the last forecast, on 36 seats (from eight countries).

The latest prediction gives 90 seats to non-attached members, with 18 for France’s National Front and 19 for Italy’s Five Star Movement.

Finally, the European Parliament released its own forecasting model last week, also using opinion poll data from each member state. The Parliament’s prediction put the EPP ahead of the Socialists, while PollWatch 2014 has had the Socialists ahead.

This difference comes as a result of way PollWatch 2014 treats national election opinion polls, applying a ‘correction mechanism’ to make up for the tendency of national polls to over-predict support for large governing parties and under-predict support for small opposition parties, particularly anti-EU parties.

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