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#Romania legislative elections: 11 December

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liviu-dragnea1Liviu Dragnea, leader of the Romanian Socialist Party, campaigning on a platform of change and economic reform

More than 18 million Romanian voters go to the polls on 11 December to elect 466 parliamentary deputies to form a new government for the next four years. Under the country’s new electoral rules, election campaigns began last week, one month in advance of the vote, writes James Wilson.

The largest political party in Romania, the centre left Social Democratic Party of Romania (PSD) led by Liviu Dragnea has started their campaign with an early lead in the national opinion polls. More than half of the mayors in Romania are already from the PSD, and half of Romania’s 32 Members of the European Parliament are also from the PSD. The party has established control over 65% of local and county councils, including the capital of Bucharest, which puts them in a strong position.

They are campaigning on an economic reform platform under the slogan "Dare to Believe", promising significant change and a major investment programme, tax reductions, steps to attract professionals back to Romania and a support scheme for new businesses. "We want Romanians to believe in the future - their future in a growing, economically dynamic Romania with standards of living equivalent to anywhere in the European Union," Dragnea has said. He is a former deputy prime minister and minister for regional development.

Other smaller parties contesting the 466 seats in the elections are the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE), the People’s Movement Party (PMP), the Save Romania Union (URS) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDM).

But this is largely a two horse race, and the PSD’s main rivals are the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL). Many analysts say that the PNL plan to nominate former EU Commissioner Dacian Ciolos to be Prime Minister should they win the election. This could be problematic for them. Ciolos has led a technical caretaker government for the past year, but his administration has had a chequered history, losing no fewer than ten ministers to resignation, almost one per month. The common thread running through these resignations was political inexperience, which has in turn undermined Ciolos’ credibility as a leader.

Against that, the PSD can boast a successful record of historical achievement, and experience, having paved the way for Romania's historic accession process into the EU in 2007. Between 2012-15 the PSD government also helped Romania recover from an economic crisis with rapid growth, and an increase in people's living standards.

An important caucus in the elections will be the 2.5 million Romanian citizens who work overseas. Improvements in the electoral system should enable them to vote by mail or electronically and through polling stations established overseas. Brussels, for example, is home to some 2 500 young Romanian professionals. Reaching these voters with campaign information through the international press and through social media will be important for candidates.

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In addition to the challenge of managing the economy, raising expectations for citizens and driving growth for the country, the next Romanian government will face two major tasks. The first is Romania’s strategy for dealing with the fallout from the United Kingdom’s national referendum on Brexit, and the implications for the EU. The second is how to manage Romania’s Presidency of the EU, which is foreseen for the first six months of 2019. One possible outcome of the elections will be a hung parliament, and the need to form a coalition, but a more likely scenario will be a swing to favour the party that voters are confident will deliver real change, meaning that it is all to play for in the last three weeks of the election campaign.

The author, James Wilson, is a freelance analyst and regular contributor on eastern Europe.

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