#Azerbaijan president in driving seat for re-election, new poll shows

A pre-election survey by top US pollster Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates shows that incumbent Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev is extremely likely to have the backing of the population for another term in office, writes Tony Mallett.

The election will take place on 11 April, several months ahead of schedule due to a presidential decree made public on 5 February. The declaration drew criticism from opponents who claimed it gave them little time to prepare for a ballot.

The original election date was set for 17 October, 2018.

The date change, however, seems not to have upset the electorate. “President Aliyev holds a commanding lead in the upcoming presidential elections,” said George Birnbaum, who is executive director of the polling company.

Speaking in the country’s capital, Baku, Birnbaum said: “Currently 82.9% of voters say that he will be their choice on election day.”

The firm’s research suggests that Azerbaijan’s security and the economy are among the top priorities with voters, and many believe that the president is working to enhance and improve economic conditions for the population.

“This positive recognition for the job the president is doing is the reason he has the electoral support of the nation,” Birnbaum said.

The Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories – which has resulted in more than a million displaced Azerbaijanis – is a key topic for voters and the majority believe that Aliyev is “keeping the country safe” and “representing the nation well internationally”.

The occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh has been roundly condemned by the international community and the UN, which passed four resolutions calling for the unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops from the Azerbaijani territories. The conflict between the two countries began when Armenia made territorial claims in 1988.

By 1992 Armenia occupied 20% of the neighbouring South Caucasus country. Despite a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations the situation still exists today and Azerbaijanis firmly stand behind their President, believing he will safeguard their country.

The survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between March 13-22 in collaboration with the local organisation Citizens Labour Rights Protection League and was a representative sample of the population across geographic and demographic factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.5%, according to Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates.

Eight candidates are campaigning for the office of the president and more than 550 international observers, including many MEPs, will be in the country to monitor the elections.

This week, MEP Jan Zahradil called Azerbaijan a “strategic partner of the European Union in many ways,” citing “a new stage in bilateral relations” and a belief that Azerbaijan is interested in developing all-round co-operation with the EU.

In September 2016, Azeris overwhelmingly backed president Aliyev’s referendum, which called for extended powers. Around five million Azerbaijanis were eligible to vote at the polls, with Azerbaijanis opting to allow Aliyev to extend his term of office from five-to-seven years.

Strategically located on the oil-rich Caspian Sea, bordering Iran to the south and Russia to the north, Azerbaijan is a Muslim but largely secular country. In recent years it has worked hard to sell its ‘European’ credentials.

This effort has been largely supported by Europe and has seen the country host various events such as the 2015 European Games, the Eurovision Song Contest as well as Formula 1 races. Azerbaijan will also see Baku as a key football venue for the Euro 2020 football tournament.

Apart from Aliyev, the other candidates standing in the April election are:
Oruc Zahid Maharram, (self-nominated); Alizada Araz Mammad Mubariz, (Azerbaijan Social-Democratic Party); Hasanguliyev Gudrat Muzaffar, (Whole Azerbaijan Popular Front Party); Guliyev Farac Ibrahim, (National Revival Movement Party); Hajiyev Hafiz Alamdar, (Modern Equality party); Nurullayev Razi Gulamali, (Front-Line Initiative Group) and Mammadov Sardar Jalal, (Azerbaijan Democratic Party).

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