#LITVINENKO Weak response to inquiry will not deter Russia

By James Nixey, Head of Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

Even for a thick-skinned president such as Vladimir Putin, and his unapologetic regime, last week's newspapers cannot have been comfortable reading. It is one thing to be a 'distinctive' voice in world politics, but another entirely to be outed as a probable murderer – as the final report of the inquiry into the death of Alexander Litvinenko accuses him of being. The Russian response has been a familiar mixture of bluster, misrepresentation and conspiracy theory.

Fortunately for the Kremlin, the British government would like to move on too. Its outrage is probably genuine, but there has clearly been a decision to do as little as can be got away with. The actual substance of the British response has so far been confined to freezing the assets of the two accused assassins − Dmitri Kovtun and Andrei Lugovoi − and it is surprising this had not been done long ago. All other measures were already in place, in the form of EU-wide sanctions and visa bans in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Everything else is just words.

'A response greater than words will at least give the current Russian regime pause for thought.'

There are a number of reasons why the UK government has not taken significant further action:

• They fear that a firm response will cause British commercial assets in Russia to be expropriated. Russia is only a moderately important export market but some UK financial services companies and energy companies are over-extended there.
• It is in the nature of politicians and diplomats to want a quick fix of better relations through mollification. This quick fix necessarily entails drawing a veil over such inconvenient truths as one country murdering the citizens of another in its capital city.
• Russia is ‘too big and too important’ to antagonize further.
• Russia has had considerable success in encouraging Western diplomats to believe that no major international problem can be resolved without it.
• The UK is too caught up in tactical issues to think broadly about what needs to be done with Russia.
• The government believes, erroneously of course, that Russia has half a point on many international issues, including debates over spheres of influence, missile defence and NATO enlargement.

Read the full expert comment online.

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