#Brexit: Celtic Cousins Seek Common Ground.

As the Irish border returns to the top of the agenda at the Brexit talks, at least as far as the EU is concerned, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is due to meet the First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones. The political importance to Ireland of avoiding customs controls on the border with Northern Ireland has somewhat obscured the economic importance of avoiding similar controls on the maritime border with Britain – writes Owain Glyndwr.

In practice that means with Wales, as 80% of goods traffic between the Republic of Ireland and Europe passes through Welsh ports. In 2016, 524,000 lorries passed through Holyhead, Fishguard and Pembroke. Of course, almost as important to Ireland is that there are no customs controls when those lorries reach Dover, Harwich or one of the other English Channel and North Sea ports.

A customs union remains the obvious solution, at least for trade in physical goods. If it can be achieved, it will probably have to be called a trade agreement or some other description that respects the sensitivities of Brexiteers. For Carwyn Jones it is the prize he hopes that he and Leo Varadkar can help one another to achieve.

Not that he sees any need to dress up the language for the benefit of Brexiteers. The First Minister has stated bluntly that “the best option is for the whole United Kingdom to have continued participation in the Single Market and membership of a customs union. This removes this problem [of the Irish border] entirely. It is also in the best interests of the Welsh and the Irish economies and, indeed, the economies of the whole of the UK”.

That reference to the UK’s economies in the plural is no accident. Wales is significantly more dependent on manufacturing than most other parts of Britain. One of the biggest employers in Carwyn Jones’ own constituency is a Ford car engine plant that supplies assembly lines in the EU27. He recently commissioned a report that showed the disproportionate impact of a hard Brexit on the Welsh economy.

As well as the automotive sector, chemicals, steel and electrical engineering were all listed as being at the most risk from the introduction of customs tariffs. Non-tariff barriers were the greater threat to the largest factory in Wales, the British Aerospace plant that makes wings for Airbus. Such a pan-European supply chain is not likely to survive having two different regulatory regimes for aircraft manufacturing.

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The collapse of coal-mining and the contraction in steel-making have left Wales struggling to attract enough highly-skilled, well-paid jobs. In the 2016 referendum, the resulting economic alienation was probably the single most important factor in the decision by most Welsh voters to support leaving the EU. Carwyn Jones is in effect trying to save his electorate from the consequences of their decision.

His discussions with Leo Varadkar are of course not a meeting of equals, a point highlighted by the Taoiseach’s decision to cancel previously scheduled talks in Dublin with the First Minister. He chose instead to join Theresa May in Belfast, in an attempt to restore the devolved government in Northern Ireland. The Taoiseach is the head of government of a EU member state, whilst the First Minister heads the least powerful of the UK’s devolved governments. He must hope that Irish self-interest will do Wales a favour, by nudging the EU towards a workable compromise with the UK on trade and customs arrangements.

Not that Carwyn Jones has nothing to offer. He has special access to the UK government, previously it was through regular meetings with Theresa May’s de facto deputy, Damian Green, until he resigned as First Secretary of State. Green’s role, though not title, has now passed to the cabinet office minister David Lidington.

The First Minister’s main leverage is his continuing refusal to ask the Welsh National Assembly to give what’s known as ‘legislative consent’ to the EU Withdrawal Bill that’s currently before the Westminster Parliament. He objects to the UK Government’s refusal to hand over after Brexit the European Union’s powers in areas such as economic development and agriculture, which are otherwise a matter for the devolved governments.

In theory, the UK government can ignore the requirement for legislative consent when it wants to pass a law affecting devolved powers. But the Assembly is poised to safeguard its position by passing its own legislation. Legal precedent suggests that the UK Supreme Court would back the Assembly if it asserted its role as the primary law-making body in devolved areas.

While he argues with Lidington about constitutional issues, Jones never fails to raise economic questions as well. As he put it before their last meeting, “while the issue of the Withdrawal Bill is urgent, I also look forward to discussing the even more important question of how to secure a Brexit which safeguards, not damages, our economy and how the UK Government intends to ensure the devolved nations have a full and active role in the second phase of the negotiations with the EU27”.

Lidington made the point that what’s even more important to Wales than the EU Single Market is the ability to trade freely with the rest of the UK. He argued that meant making some decisions about economic aid and agricultural support centrally in Westminster when they’re no longer made in Brussels. Jones has suggested that the solution is a UK Council of Ministers, where he and his Scottish counterpart, Nicola Sturgeon, could sit down with Theresa May as equals.

Those close to Jones say he’s frustrated when he meets May by her lack of leadership and decisiveness. His impatience with the Prime Minister is just as great as that shown by Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier. Her difficulty is that the moment she does make up her mind about what kind of Brexit she really wants, she could be brought down by a rebellion on one wing of her party or the other.

As for the First Minister, he is on record as saying he wants to stay in office long enough to see Brexit through. That would suggest he’ll stay put until at least the end of 2019, when he will have been in office for ten years. But there’s no guarantee that he will make it that far, as he has troubles of his own.

They are centred on how he handled the sacking last November of one of his cabinet ministers, Carl Sargeant, who faced allegations about his conduct towards women. Sargeant was found dead days later, having apparently taken his own life. Jones now faces inquiries into his handling of the allegations about his cabinet colleague, as well as other claims about a bullying culture in his government.

The strain is starting to show. At the end of January, Carwyn Jones got into a ridiculous shouting match with an opposition politician during First Minister’s Questions. The man who sees himself saving Wales from a hard Brexit was reduced to a trivial argument about correspondence with a health board. Worse, it turned out that he was using incorrect information.

Forced to apologise, he admitted to behaviour unworthy of a parliament. Such unedifying scenes are not exactly unknown in Westminster or Strasbourg, or indeed Dail Eirean. But Carwyn Jones knows that he must take great care to preserve his hard-won authority as a statesman. It had been much enhanced by his response to the Brexit referendum result before it was so badly damaged by the tragic events in the autumn of 2017.

 

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