Analysis: Vladimir Putin is safe in power for now, but risks lie ahead, sources say

Many of them stated that the Russian president was in one the most difficult spots of his over two decades of power in Ukraine. His invading troops were pushed back by a Western-armed Kyiv.

Sources, including former and current Western diplomats, stated that no imminent threat was evident from his inner circle or military or intelligence services.

Anthony Brenton, an ex-ambassador of Britain to Russia, stated that Putin is "hanging in there" at the moment.

He stated that he believed the Russian leader wanted to negotiate with Ukraine, possibly with the Americans. He also hoped Moscow's faltering battlefield fortunes would pick-up despite what the West claims is a lack in manpower, hardware, and missiles.

Putin, who has been in power since 1999, has faced many domestic crises and wars. He also had to face large street protests several times before effectively outlawing any opposition.

However, the 70-year-old's "specially military operation" in Ukraine has caused the most tension between East and West since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. It also triggered the harshest Western sanctions ever against Russia.

His army has suffered humiliating retreats and huge losses. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have fled to other countries to escape combat. In what some see as desperation, Putin also engages in nuclear sabre-rattling.

Some allies, from the Kremlin-backed Chechnyan leader to "Putin’s foot soldier" to the "Putin’s chef", nickname for the head of a once obscure mercenary organization, have accused military leaders of mishandling war.

Brenton, who worked with Putin during his second term said that there was no public criticism from the business or political elites or any indication of an attack against him. However, this may not be true.

"If they continue to retreat in the spring, March/April next years, then my instinct says that things will become really problematic for Putin at that time -- not at the popular but at the elite level.

"You have a lot of people there who are fundamentally selfish and don't want be part of an eventual disaster."

'WORKING ARGUMENTS'

Protests against mobilization by relatives, Ukraine’s vow not to treat Putin and an apparently unscripted, quickly walked back assertion from U.S. President Joe Biden, that Putin cannot be allowed to remain in power, have fueled speculation about his future.

Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the Washington Post report this year claimed that Putin had been confronted by a member of his inner circle over the war, but that there was open policy debate.

Peskov stated to reporters that there were working arguments about the economy and the conduct of military operations. It is not a sign that there has been a split.

According to the Kremlin, Putin is supported by an overwhelming majority in Russia and has won a stunning re-election victory.

Russia's political system has a reputation for being opaque. However, Washington demonstrated in the lead-up to the invasion that Washington could see Moscow's intentions.

According to a senior Western official, who has been closely following the situation and refused to name the source due to the sensitive nature of the matter, there have been no major departures.

The official stated that there were signs of infighting and complaints, but no indications that he had lost control.

An American official, who refused to be identified for the same reason, said that Washington and its allies had assumed Putin's security. "Despite this, many of Putin's recent actions, including mobilization, clearly indicate that he is on the sidelines."

It would be dangerous and difficult for anyone to take down the powerful intelligence services that underpin the political system, which is staffed with loyalists.

Andrew Weiss, a Putin specialist from the Carnegie Endowment, stated that "everything" is possible in Russia but public opinion is less important than in the West. Real opponents fled or were jailed, and Putin was surrounded with loyalists.

"Show me who is going to speak in Putin’s office, and I'll be done. Who would have the nerve to do such a thing? Weiss has been in various policy positions on the US National Security Council, and has written a book on Putin.

He said that the Russian leader could be overthrown by a palace coup or an elite rebellion, as well as a grassroots "storming at the Bastille", while noting, however, that Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader, had ruled for more then a decade since his 1990 invasion in Kuwait.

'FEAR REIGNS'

Tatiana Stanovaya (founder of R.Politik analysis company) said that Putin would be in trouble if there were no other options than to escalate the conflict.

She predicted that Putin would be persuaded to step aside by the elite in such a case.

Stanovaya stated that if he can... fulfill his unspoken obligations to the elite and the populace -- stability, peace and pensions -- then nothing will be threatening him."

"But if... Russia's army is pushed back at the old Russian borders pre-annexation...and if Ukraine goes on the offensive further...and the budget can’t cope with and there are delays in pensions...the elite may mobilize slowly."

Opinion polls in Russia show increasing public anxiety. However, one French diplomat source stated that they believed Putin, the dominant state media, could retain his control.

According to a senior European official, Putin would need to demonstrate that he has lost the war in order to be unseated.

Brenton said that if and when it came, his successor would not be a friend to the West.

"The toughest securocrats are the ones who will make these decisions. We won't get a cuddly libertarian."

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