Why Is Europe choosing the longest path to end smoking?

The European Union (EU) has set a bold public health goal: to become smoke-free by 2040. That means less than 5% of adults use combustible tobacco across all member states. It is an ambitious target, and for good reason. Smoking remains one of the leading preventable causes of death in the EU, with smoking rates averaging around 24% compared to just 5.3% in Sweden. So, how do we get from here to there, writes Tetiana Rak.

That is the question behind Path to Smoke-Free, a forecasting and policy analysis tool created by We Are Innovation. Using global data and behavioral insights, the platform offers a clear-eyed view of how quickly countries can achieve smoke-free status and what is holding them back.

The model behind Path to Smoke-Free shows how smoking rates could fall each year depending on the choices countries make. And the message is clear: if EU nations stay on their current path, most won’t reach the 2040 target for decades or even centuries. At the current trajectory, Germany will not achieve a smoke-free society until 2143, with France trailing even further behind at 2166. Belgium and Italy fare only marginally better, projected to eliminate smoking by 2138 and 2128, respectively. Yet these timelines need not be immutable. Nations that have welcomed innovative nicotine products offer a compelling blueprint for acceleration—one that could compress Germany's century-long journey into mere decades while preserving millions of lives that would otherwise be lost to smoking’s toll.

The EU’s smoke-free hero

Sweden is the only EU country already on the cusp of smoke-free status. Its success is no accident. In 2004, the country had a smoking rate of 16.5%. Today, it has dropped to just 5.3%, and among native Swedes, even lower at 4.5%. This progress wasn’t achieved through bans or punitive taxes alone, but through a comprehensive and pragmatic approach rooted in harm reduction. The Swedish model emphasizes three key principles: accessibility, acceptability, and affordability.

In Sweden, smokers have access to a wide range of safer alternatives, such as nicotine pouches, snus, heated tobacco, and vapes, available both in physical stores and through online platforms. These products are readily accessible, with clear information, legal availability, and minimal barriers to entry. This personalization makes quitting smoking feel less like deprivation and more like a transition.

Equally important is affordability. Taxes on these products are calibrated to keep them financially attractive compared to cigarettes, ensuring that cost does not become a barrier for those trying to switch. Together, these three elements create a supportive environment for harm reduction, one that meets people where they are rather than punishing them for trying to quit.

The results of applying this approach are profound. Sweden reports 21.2% fewer smoking-related deaths, 36% fewer lung cancer deaths, and 12% fewer cardiovascular deaths compared to EU averages. Crucially, EU migrants who settle in Sweden also see their smoking rates drop — from 24% to just 7.8%, which proves that this model is culturally transferable.

Innovation: The Missing Link in EU Anti-Smoking Strategy

Despite these results, many EU countries continue to treat nicotine products as threats rather than tools. While Sweden embraces innovation, much of the EU has focused on prohibition over provision. Vapes are constantly threatened, nicotine pouches are restricted, snus suffers a blanket ban (with the exception of Sweden), and regulatory frameworks for novel products are often more confusing than constructive.

Yet evidence shows these tools can be powerful allies in smoking cessation when regulated smartly. The choice facing the EU is clear: continue on the current path and miss the 2040 target by a century, or course-correct and use data-driven innovation to get there decades earlier. If the EU mirrored Sweden’s trajectory, the entire bloc could become smoke-free by the early 2060s. But without bold change, some member states may not achieve smoke-free status until well into the 22nd century.

A moment of decision

Will the EU cling to outdated strategies or embrace a balanced, evidence-based approach that blends public health protection with harm reduction? The lives at stake are not abstract. With over 700,000 people dying each year from smoking-related causes in Europe, each lost year equates to hundreds of thousands of lost futures.

Sweden’s story proves that transformation is possible. The EU has the research, the tools, and the precedent. What it needs now is political courage. The future doesn’t write itself. But the EU can still choose to write a better one.

* Tetiana Rak is the chief operating officer of We Are Innovation, a global network of over 50 think tanks and NGOs working at the intersection of policy, innovation, and public health. A journalist and freedom activist with 10 years of experience,Rak has worked with renowned media outlets including CNN, TechCrunch, Fox News, HackerNoon, the BBC, and Radio Free Europe, among others.

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