Autumn 2021 economic forecast: From recovery to expansion despite turmoil

The EU economy is rebounding faster than expected after the pandemic-induced recession. With the progress of vaccination campaigns and the gradual lifting of restrictions, growth resumed in the spring and was maintained throughout the summer, supported by the reopening of the economy. Despite growing obstacles, the EU economy is expected to continue expanding over the forecast period, registering a growth rate of 5% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 2.5% % in 2023.

At almost 14% in annual terms, the GDP growth rate in the EU in the second quarter of 2021 was the highest on record, as was the unprecedented drop in GDP during the first wave of the pandemic at the same time last year. In the third quarter of 2021, the EU economy returned to its pre-pandemic level of production and moved from a recovery phase to an expansion phase. However, the growth dynamic is facing further turmoil. Bottlenecks and disruptions in global supply chains are choking activity in the EU, especially in its highly integrated manufacturing sector. Although the impact of the pandemic on economic activity has declined considerably, COVID-19 has not yet been neutralized and the recovery is highly dependent on its course, both inside and outside the EU.

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