Can the US hold General Burhan’s 'feet to the fire' the way it did Netanyahu over Gaza?

Whether or not through force of ideological habit, it’s possible to imagine that General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, supreme commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, will have welcomed the most recent developments around Gaza. He would be forgiven, however, for thinking, “But damn, that’s bad timing,” as the regional Arab states cried off the summit they had planned for earlier this week  (15 October) in Moscow as guests of President Putin, because they were all going to be too busy bedding down the Gaza deal.

This summit will have been another piece of important diplomatic theatre for Gen. Burhan as he tries to build a ‘sovereignty’ firewall against efforts by the Quad—the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—to progress its own proposals for a ceasefire in his own war-ravaged country, whose state of crisis, simply as a numbers exercise, dwarfs the accumulated miseries of Gaza’s Palestinians.

Of course, the summit is merely deferred, but time is not General Burhan’s side, especially as the Rapid Support Forces, which is bedding down its own ‘government of peace and unity’ in the south and west of the country, continues to maintain its grip on the besieged gateway city of El-Fashir. The RSF has established this parallel administration, largely based in the Darfur region, which it dominates militarily and demographically, in order, it says, to represent Sudan's neglected peripheries and marginalized communities, and to provide a counterweight to the centralized ‘Khartoum’ elite. It advocates a highly decentralized, regionally autonomous system.

However the Gaza process unfolds, it has confirmed that the US has been the indispensable factor in securing the progress made; only the US could hold Israel’s feet to the fire and say ‘Enough, or else.’ And among informed observers of the Sudan conflict, it is common currency that in recent years, the US had declined to assume that responsibility over Sudan. Here it is Gen. Burhan "playing the role" of Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, ‘the immovable object’ as it were—and if the Quad is going to progress its objectives, it is once again the US that will have to play the ‘irresistible force’ by marshalling the consensus needed among its co-negotiators to “hold Gen. Burhan’s feet” to a similar fire.

Gen. Burhan’s diplomacy has him presenting himself as the likelier regional partner to the surrounding states. For that, some have argued, he will put up Sudan “for sale” as it were—its Red Sea coastline, its gold and other minerals, its agricultural potential—to any geopolitical consortium that will acquiesce in what some see as the continued dominance of Islamists in his regime.

This means allowing the SAF and its civilian ‘government of hope’ to pursue its own roadmap towards peace—a process that involves the surrender of the RSF and the Sudanese politician and civilian minorities aligned with it, to the hegemony of the Islamist elite that have, traditionally, governed Sudan in their own interests.

Left to its own devices, they will finally establish their own Islamist republic, reinforce their relationships with Iran and its proxies (including the Houthis just across the water in Yemen), cosy up to Turkey which has been reportedly supplying its drones, and to Russia which has its own geopolitical ambitions in the region and would,it is said, happily take a win here against ‘the West’

One close observer of the region told this site, “Potentially, this would allow Sudan to once again become a safe haven for international terrorism. And all this will come at the expense of those ethnic and political minorities who have been under the heel of the Islamist mafia in Khartoum for decades.”

There are alternatives, however difficult they may seem. It is not as if the RSF and other politico/civilian forces ranged against Gen. Burhan and the SAF have placed terms on the table that are not immediately recognisable as the necessary ingredients to any just and lasting settlement.

“It’s largely down to the fact that the Islamists simply refuse to engage in any process that limits their own ability to determine Sudan’s future,” added the same Brussels-based independent pundit.

The US has shown in Gaza that when push comes to shove, when heads have to be banged together, it has the muscle to get parties either directly at war or with differentiated regional interests, to stop shooting and start talking. That said, it’s undeniable that success in Gaza is going to require a lot of material regional effort and input—blood and treasure. In that sense, General Burhan will be doubtless be hoping that under the circumstances, peace in Sudan seems simply a bridge too far. Washington should disabuse him of that notion.

The UN has called Sudan the world's largest humanitarian crisis. The bitter and bloody war erupted in April 2023 when the army and the RSF clashed over plans to integrate their forces.Some estimates say the conflict has killed some 300,000 people and displaced another 2.7 million.  It has led to a famine and claims of a genocide in the western Darfur region.

The BBC reports that an investigation by a UN team fell short of concluding that a genocide was taking place but found that that both the RSF and army had committed war crimes. The RSF denies committing genocide, saying it was not involved in what it describes as a "tribal conflict" in Darfur. The BBC also says that humanitarian work has been badly affected by the decision of the Trump administration to cut aid.

Gen. Burhan has close relations with Egypt, serves as Sudan's internationally recognised head of state and served in several areas including South Darfur and South Sudan before it seceded from Sudan. The general recently met U.S. senior Africa adviser Massad Boulos in Switzerland, where issues including a transition to civilian rule were discussed.

Sudan is in north-east Africa and is one of the largest countries on the continent, covering 1.9 million sq km and borders seven countries; the River Nile also flows through it. Sudan’s Red Sea coast has an important regional trading port, Port Sudan, making it a strategically important for foreign powers particularly for the control of arms shipments. Its population is predominantly Muslim and the country's official languages are Arabic and English. Even before the war started, it was one of the poorest countries in the world despite it being a gold-producing nation.

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