Drone strikes on fertilizer giant NAK Azot threaten Europe’s food security

A series of Ukrainian drone strikes on one of Europe’s largest chemical plants is raising alarm over potential disruptions to global food security, as fertilizer supplies from Russia - a major exporter - hang in the balance.

On June 8, unmanned aerial vehicles targeted the NAK Azot facility in Novomoskovsk (pictured), a key producer of nitrogen-based fertilizers owned by Swiss-registered EuroChem Group AG. It was the second such attack in recent weeks. The first incident, on May 24, may have forced the plant to shut down for nearly two weeks.

Local officials reported an ammonia leak and fire following the latest strike, which also damaged critical infrastructure, including chemical storage tanks. Two people were injured. Preliminary damage assessments are estimated in the hundreds of millions of rubles, but analysts warn the strategic fallout could be far more severe.

Europe’s fertilizer supply in jeopardy

NAK Azot’s annual output exceeds 1.35 million tonnes of active fertilizer ingredients — nearly equivalent to the total fertilizer needs of Germany, the EU’s largest economy. EuroChem has warned that supply disruptions from the plant could derail international deliveries and has called on the United Nations to intervene.

In 2024 Russia accounted for roughly 25% of EU fertilizer imports. For certain nitrogen fertilizers -  including urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) - it is effectively the bloc’s only major supplier. Interruptions to that flow could hit 2025–26 planting seasons hard, especially in France, Belgium, and Eastern Europe, where producers already face thin margins.

“Any extended disruption would likely push fertilizer prices higher, raise input costs for farmers, and ultimately feed into consumer food inflation,” said Alexandra Novak, an agricultural economist at London-based think tank Hagman Global Strategies.

A strategic flashpoint in the food-energy nexus

The NAK Azot attacks come amid broader tensions over global food supply chains. The Kremlin is reportedly weighing withdrawal from the UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea grain initiative, a move that could curtail Ukrainian grain exports and escalate food insecurity in Africa and the Middle East.

Analysts fear a geopolitical spillover that could create a dual crisis: fertilizer scarcity constraining production in Europe and grain shortages hitting net-importing nations globally.

The high-stakes future of fertilizer logistics

With NAK Azot’s capacity off the market, pressure is mounting on alternative suppliers, including producers in North Africa and the Gulf. But scaling up quickly is not guaranteed. Meanwhile, the EU may be forced to consider building strategic reserves of mineral fertilizers — echoing its earlier moves in the gas market after the 2022 energy shock.

The current conflict underscores the fragile interdependence between agriculture and global security — where a single drone strike can ripple through supply chains from Russian factories to European fields and African ports.

As one European diplomat put it: “The war has reached a point where chemistry and bread are no longer separate domains — they are now one and the same.”

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