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DUP Leader Arlene Foster meets UK PM Theresa May in 2016

After an intense weekend of negotiations, it was widely hoped that the UK would be in a position to reach a deal that met the EU-27’s requirement for “sufficient progress”, writes Catherine Feore.

As we reported after the sixth round of negotiations, it looked like the Irish border issue was the one question that is furthest from resolution – and so it proved. The UK has swallowed the bitter pill that is the financial settlement and is almost there on citizens’ rights – with a bit more tinkering needed around the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

With just over a week to go to the European Council on 15 December, it looked like the EU-27 and UK could finally reach agreement on Phase 1 and move on to Phase 2. It was said that Commission officials were poring over a statement and the guidelines for the second phase (yes, that’s right, we are a long way from the end of this particular road) dotting ‘I’s and crossing ‘T’s.

In the morning, all was well with the world. Here is a buoyant Donald Tusk borrowing from The Boomtown Rats.

The MEPs from the European Parliament’s Brexit steering group were also making positive sounds – on the whole – though their Brexit lead held some reservations.

This was the confident statement from the Co-Chair of the Green Group Philippe Lamberts at 14h that declared ‘Peace in our Time’:

"It seems the British government is now coming to terms with reality and is finally willing to make the necessary concessions to allow us to move on to stage two of the negotiations. While the hard-line Brexiteers will not be happy, the necessity of a special agreement for Northern Ireland has been clear to all rational observers since day one. Maintaining regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is the only solution if the Good Friday Agreement is to be respected. I am optimistic that the European Council can now agree to move discussion on to the UK's future relationship with the European Union."

The statement from Lamberts made it clear that the main barrier was the Irish border question.

We assume – perhaps erroneously – that UK Prime Minister Theresa May would have kept her ‘supply and confidence’ partners in government, the DUP, fully briefed on what she was proposing. So, what went wrong?

What slipped out during the day was that there was some discussion, disagreement – or maybe just an accidental leak from an earlier document – of the different wording  ‘regulatory convergence’ and ‘regulatory alignment’. Splitting hairs, you think? Well maybe, but in Northern Ireland language matters. It is thought that this malentendu brought an abrupt end to the hope of a deal.

Salt was poured into the wound when Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in response to a question, also let the mask drop, saying that they “mean the same in our view. We are happy to accept either.” Leo knows this, May knows this, Arlene knows this, the DUP, Sinn Fein, the entire population of both islands know this. That does not matter, in the dance of the seven veils that is negotiating on Northern Ireland, the veil must never slip!

To add to the chaos, once one person looked like they were going to be allowed to align, a whole load of Remainiacs decided that they too would like to jump on that particular bandwagon. Here’s Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister for Scotland and Mayor of London Sadiq Khan:

Come on Arlene! I swear, you mean everything!

So Arlene, in the name of all that is holy, what will it take to allow everyone to move on to Phase 2? If we look at the joint letter sent by Arlene Foster and the late Martin McGuinness in August 2016, we see that Northern Ireland wanted to be recognized as being a ‘unique region – that has issues that are particular to Northern Ireland’. It is fair to say that everyone has recognized this. However, Foster’s statement insists that Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK.

The August letter also requested that the border not become an impediment to the movement of people, goods and services; that criminal justice, energy and agri-food co-operation continue and that EU funding for the PEACE programme continue. It seems that the UK, Ireland and EU have agreed to this, it is therefore difficult to know what can be done to assuage the wrath of the DUP and help the UK move to Phase 2. Even BoJo now understands that you can't have your cake and eat it.

All changed, changed utterly: A terrible beauty is born

The DUP position has changed, changed utterly with the British general election in June. May’s slender majority meant that she needed 10 DUP votes. Foster, who emerges as the most impressive negotiator in this whole sad affair, agreed to a deal at the not inconsiderable sum of £100 million per DUP vote for a ‘supply and confidence’ agreement. What was widely perceived as a bung by the Conservative Party was criticized by opposition politicians. The deal guaranteed DUP support for the government on Brexit and budget votes in Westminster. Some say that is a breach of the Good Friday Agreement’s commitment to ‘rigorous impartiality’ of both the Irish and British governments.

The DUP of August 2016 and the DUP of December 2017 are completely different, they have moved to territory where they are more comfortable – intransigent obstruction – the faint echo of ‘Ulster says No!’ just got a lot louder. Initially heard in the DUP’s reluctance to form a new executive government in Stormont, it can now be heard in the corridors of power in Brussels.

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