Elections unlikely to alter Tehran’s nuclear ambitions

Iran’s presidential election this month is unlikely to lead Tehran to comply with international obligations to suspend its nuclear programme. Such decisions will remain with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The European Union must continue to focus on dramatically increasing the pressure on Iran by fully enforcing current sanctions and implementing new measures.

Upcoming Iranian presidential elections will not be free or fair. In any case, they are unlikely to influence the country’s nuclear programme.

The 14 June elections will be the first presidential vote since the fraudulent 2009 polls that sparked countrywide anti-government protests. Although around 700 candidates have registered for the presidential race, the regime will permit only a small number to run, excluding anyone disloyal to it or to its interpretation of Islam.

These conditions make it unlikely that a candidate committed to democratic values will be able to run for president. Regardless of who ascends to the presidency, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will retain control over decisions on the country’s nuclear programme. In the run-up to elections, Iran has continued to expand its nuclear program in violation of its international obligations. The most recent report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicated Iran is defiantly advancing its nuclear program by installing new advanced centrifuges. If brought online in large quantities, these centrifuges would dramatically reduce the time Iran needs to produce weapons-grade uranium.

Iran is also continuing construction of a heavy water reactor in direct violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. While the reactor is not suitable for electricity production, its spent fuel could be reprocessed to produce plutonium. In talks between the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) last month in Kazakhstan, Iran refused to provide a counter proposal to an earlier P5+1 offer, and negotiators left the meeting without a date for continued talks. After leaving Kazakhstan, Iran announced the development of two uranium extracting and enriching projects that could increase its ability to produce fissile material for a weapon.

The European Union must fully enforce current sanctions and implement new measures to increase economic pressure on Iran to alter its policies. The European Union must persuade nations still buying Iranian oil to significantly reduce their purchases. Countries that fail to meet EU expectations must face consequences, including sanctioning financial institutions involved in oil purchases. In addition, the European Union must enforce sanctions against foreign entities continuing to trade with and support the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Financial institutions and individuals conducting financial transactions with or providing services to the Central Bank of Iran or other sanctioned banks must be identified and sanctioned. The European Central Bank must be persuaded to stop allowing Iran to conduct transactions in euros. The European Union must rally the international community to isolate Iran diplomatically.

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