Opinion: Farewell, Crimea libre

Livadia Palace in Crimea, the former home of Tsar Nicholas II and dream 'rest home' of US President Theodore Roosevelt

The upcoming 16 March referendum on the future of the Crimea and status of the city of Sevastopol has been declared "illegitimate" by the West. At the recent extraordinary EU Council of heads of state in Brussels devoted to the Ukraine crisis, Chancellor Angela Merkel explained that the Crimean plebiscite is poorly prepared, undertaken in haste and without consultation with the government, therefore it is not valid.

Any parallels with the upcoming September Scottish vote are deeemed irrelevant. Criticism about the absence of co-operation with Kiev's new self-proclaimed government does not make much sense, not only because it is self-proclaimed, but also because its ascendance has been stained by violence and bloodshed.  The legitimate president finds himself in exile and even those who agree with his status admit that his authority is close to zero.

Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov has explained the swift pace of the referendum schedule as being due to the danger of provocation and the need to avoid the repetition of the Maidan Square tragedy. Whatever the motives, the dates don’t change the essence: the present offered by USSR Communist Party Secretary General Nikita Khrushev to the Urkanian people was easy to give away in 1954, but it will not be easy to recuperate. The opinion of the two million inhabitants of the peninsula do not weigh heavily enough to win over the whims of the political adventurists in power in the past and present, in the context of the current political conjuncture.

The tensions around the plebiscite are mounting as the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mission that attempted to enter the Crimea was stopped by gunmen – a bad omen, as it shuts down the perspective for international recognition of the referendum. This rejection concluded the violence and bloodshed at Maidan Square, where both people and confidence between Russia and the West were killed.

The storming of military base Belbek Airport in Crimea completed the picture, giving the Kremlin grounds to accuse the West of exporting "coloured" revolutions.

Meanwhile, Russian web users are gambling over the amount to be invested in the old Russian province, which until the 1917 October Revolution was called Tavricheskaya province, in case it joins the Russian Federation.  It was once a luxurious resort favoured by Tsar Nicolas II, the last Romanov, who was overjoyed to have a home in Livadia Palace. US President Theodore Roosevelt, half a century later, was equally charmed by the location, reportedly wishing to move there "when pensioned".

Once the most illustrious province of the Russian empire and subsequently a popular resort for the Communist elite, the Crimea's charms proved to be a turning point for Gorbachev, who was overthrown in a coup d'état while holidaying there.

The Crimea fell into decline after the collapse of the USSR - the population decreased by almost half a million as the resort's fame faded, unable to compete internationally without investment and incapable of providing jobs for the weak local economy, which aggravated its fall from grace. But the economic difficulties were eclipsed by cultural problems: Aksyonov has reminded his compatriots about the "second class" status of Crimeans in Ukraine.

The referendum will decide upon two options - joining Russia or restoration of  autonomy within Ukraine. Sadly for Crimea, with its rich historical past, independence is no longer at stake. It could become a Malta of the Black Sea, a conjuction of eastern and western civilizations. Alas, the Maidan Square snipers killed the independence perspective - the risk of bloodshed remains high, pushing Crimeans into the arms of the Kremlin, preparing to exchange their freedom for authoritarian stability.

The Maidan revolution has pushed the population towards a restoration of the ancient borders of the Russian empire. Subsequently, Crimea's status has become another sui generis like Kosovo. An unexpected collision while integrating Ukraine into the EU.

Anna van Densky

Anna van Densky

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