As the 30 June deadline nears for an agreement between the world powers in the P5+1 (US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) and Iran over its nuclear program, it appears more and more that Iranian intransigence makes such a deal unlikely.
Iran and the P5+1 agreed a framework to a comprehensive nuclear deal last month, paving the way for negotiations to begin towards a long-term accord, which must be agreed by the end of next month. However, both sides have since indicated differences over fundamental issues such as Iran’s use of advanced centrifuges, the pace of sanctions relief and provision for international inspections.
This week, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that his country’s “nuclear positions are the same that we have declared before in word and deed.” He made clear that Tehran would not permit any inspections whatsoever. Iran has a long history of concealing its nuclear program on a large scale.
Khamenei said that these positions were the “primary positions of the government and that Iranian diplomats are expending all of their energies to realize these principles, and they will invariably hold by these principles to benefit the country,” he was quoted as saying.
Speaking at the Atlantic Council think tank, Gerard Araud, France’s ambassador to the United States said it is “very likely” that talks will extend beyond the agreed upon deadline, adding, “It’s going to be extremely complicated … We could have a sort of fuzzy end to the negotiations.” His German counterpart Peter Wittig said that talks are proceeding “at a rather slow pace on the expert level” and that, “The most difficult path may lie ahead of us.”
France’s Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told the French parliament this week that his country would not back any nuclear deal with Iran unless it provided full access to all installations, including military sites.
“France will not accept a deal if it is not clear that inspections can be done at all Iranian installations, including military sites,” he said, adding that he wanted other countries of the P5+1 to adopt the French position.
“‘Yes’ to an agreement, but not to an agreement that will enable Iran to have the atomic bomb. That is the position of France which is independent and peaceful,” Fabius said.
Fabius’s comments echo similar remarks made by Yukiya Amano, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who called for Iranian military sites to be open to international inspection.
“When we find inconsistency or when we have doubts we can request access to the undeclared location for example, and this could include military sites,” Amano said.
“Some consideration is needed because of the sensitiveness of the site, but the IAEA has the right to request access at all locations, including military ones.”
Amano said the IAEA hoped to probe 12 sites in Iran for possible nuclear energy work.
He said it could take years “to give the credible assurance that all activities in Iran have a peaceful purpose” given Iran’s longtime secrecy.
“This will be the most extensive safeguard operation of the IAEA,” Amano said.
“We need to prepare well, we need to plan well. It is a huge operation.”
The US State Department said that Washington has no intention of extending talks beyond an agreed 30 June deadline.
“We’re not contemplating any extension beyond June 30,” said US State Department spokesman Jeff Rathke.
Another sign of the low expectation of an agreement came this week when US Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, who has spearheaded Washington’s nuclear negotiating team for the last two years, announced that she would step down after the 30 June deadline.
She told the New York Times: “It’s been two long years,” calling the Iran nuclear talks “incredibly complex”.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon underscored Iran’s destabilizing role in the region. He warned that since 2003, Iran has ensured that Iraq remains unstable.
Yaalon told a security conference, “a strong Iraq runs counter to its Iran’s own interests. From its perspective Iraq needs to be weak, bleeding.” He also termed Iran the “centre of gravity” for regional terror.
