Kazakhstan, a good neighbour and a reliable partner

Kazakhstan is working to establish a reputation as an open, forward-thinking country that is both a reliable partner to the EU for trade and energy supplies and a nice neighbour and helpful partner for President Vladimir Putin's isolated Russia.  But it will undoubtedly be challenging to do given the growing geopolitical gap between Moscow and the West, writes Nargis Kassenova, director of the Programme on Central Asia at the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.

The difficulty of this mission was made abundantly obvious last month as Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev informed European Union leaders they could rely on him to assist the 27-nation EU in resolving its energy problem. But the very following day, a court in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk ordered the month-long suspension of a pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan that supplies Europe.

The shutdown order was purportedly issued in response to infractions of the rules regarding oil spills. The court eventually changed its mind and replaced the suspension with a fine after Tokayev later gave the government instructions to prioritise the development of the Trans-Caspian route by avoiding Russia for Kazakh oil. The court's actions, as well as earlier hiccups brought on by storm-damaged loading facilities in March and the search for World War II mines in June, have now given rise to suspicions that they were politically motivated and part of sanctions trade-off between the West and Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.

The difficulty Tokayev faces was also clearly illustrated in June at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Sitting next to Putin was a strong sign of support for Tokayev as the only significant foreign leader to attend the meeting in person, but the plenary session itself revealed the two to be at odds.

At the occasion, Tokayev made brief and unemotional remarks. He reiterated Kazakhstan's position, which favours the concept of territorial integrity over that of self-determination and rejects the quasi-state regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, calmly and courteously. It may be interpreted as a polite invitation for Russian elites to consider the implications of such a development for their multi-ethnic nation when he observed that the inclination for self-determination could result in the establishment of hundreds of new countries, creating instability.

Tokayev also made other statements that went unnoticed by foreign audiences, but which are equally crucial for understanding the concept of sovereignty held by the Kazakh political elite and their ongoing differences with Russia. He discussed fostering global collaboration and promoting the nation's investment appeal. He emphasised the impossibility and pointlessness of trying to be independent. Additionally, he emphasised the significance of Kazakhstan's continuing reforms, which aim to strengthen the nation's competitiveness and stability while promoting a more inclusive and just system.

At present, Kazakhstan is focused on containing the damage by recalibrating its foreign policy. It’s also very busy exploring new opportunities that are opening up. In St. Petersburg, for example, Tokayev said the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) should adopt a more proactive and flexible trade policy toward Asian and Middle Eastern markets, and that Kazakhstan could play the role of a buffer market in this new setting. He also wishes to develop better linkages between the EEU and China’s Belt and Road Initiative too.

As can be seen, Kazakhstan is trying to benefit from the reorientation of trade routes, but in a way that Russia sees benefits too. It’s positioning itself as an open entrepreneurial merchant nation, a good neighbour and a useful partner. 

Reassuringly for EU – Kazakh relations, Tokayev wants his country to be seen as a reliable partner to the EU for trade and energy supplies.

For this balancing act to work, however, the country needs buy-in from all key parties, which isn’t going to be easy — although, if goodwill is shown all around, it’s still not impossible. 

This guest opinion piece was originally published in Politico. The author Nargis Kassenova is director of the Programme on Central Asia at the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.

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