Moldova - between EU accession and mounting regional tensions

With a raging war next door, a breakaway region packed with Russian soldiers stirring tensions and an EU accession process picking up speed, the Republic of Moldova has been having an eventful couple of weeks, writes Cristian Gherasim.

The war in Ukraine placed the small eastern European country in a precarious position. The nation of 2.5million has received the largest number of refugees in relation to its population size.

During a visit to Chisinau, earlier last month, the UN secretary general talked about the fragile position Moldova is in. He mentioned that the country finds itself in the first line of defense in keeping peace and stability in the region.

“I am deeply concerned about the continuation and possible spread of the war Russia is waging in Ukraine, and by the impact it is having not only in the region but around the world. The consequences of escalation are too frightening to contemplate,” Antonio Guterres said during his visit.

Sandwiched between Ukraine and the EU, Moldova remains one of the poorest countries on the continent. A former soviet republic, maintaining a total dependence on Russian gas, Moldova has always had its politics fueled by its east/west divide represented by the Russian speaking Moldovans and the more centrist, western-leaning and Romanian speaking part of population.

The pro-European government hopes that closer ties with the European Union and the possibility of a future EU membership could help mitigate Moldova’s fragility in the region.

Transnistria

Though enthusiasm might be high with the majority of the population backing EU membership, as a recent study of WatchDog.md NGO shows, Moldova might never become part of the EU unless the Transnistrian problem is resolved.

Transnistria is an unrecognized breakaway region located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border that is internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Moldova. With its own institutions, a flag, national bank and independence day, Transnistria hosts a contingent of 1,500 troops that Russia says are peacekeepers.

The Russian controlled and heavily armed region made headlines over the past weeks due to recent comments by Russian military officials saying that Kremlin wants to create a “land corridor” from Russia in the east to Transnistria. Russian Major General Rustam Minnekayev argued than an intervention in Transnistria would be warranted because of “oppression of Russian-speaking population”.

Such a turn of events would bring Russian forces on Moldovan soil and right at NATO’s doorstep.

Sparking even more fears that Russia might be trying to justify a new conflict in Eastern Europe and reach Transnistria, a series of unexplained explosions occurred in parts of the region, damaging two radio towers, a military unit, with explosions being heard in Transnistria's capital Tiraspol, near the Ministry of State Security building. The Transnistrian foreign minister blamed Ukraine for the explosions which Kiev denied. Ukraine President Zelenskyy said that such false flag attacks are used by Moscow as pretext to attack Moldova.

Speaking to EU Reporter, Armand Gosu, professor at the University of Bucharest and a leading expert on Moldova and the ex-Soviet region, said that Putin would want to occupy Transnistria and instate a friendly government in Chisinau, capital of Moldova, but it’s not that simple to pull off.

“The problem for Putin is that Russia can’t win the battle for Donbas, let alone Odessa. Surely not now.

If indeed Odessa were to fall, the risk is huge for Moldova, as most likely Transnistria would be swamped by officials linked to the Russian secret service trying to turn Transnistria into a new Donbas.

The good news is that Transnistria doesn’t want to go to war. The political and economic elite there would want to do business with the EU and Romania instead”.

EU accession and its hurdles

Earlier this month, the European Parliament voted to grant Moldova EU candidate status. More so, the Moldovan government handed back the complete EU questionnaire needed to kick-start the process.

Yet, Moldova is still very far along the path towards becoming an EU member state.

Besides the unresolved Tranistrian issue, Moldova has an even harder time in tackling corruption. For the trend to change, Moldova needs an overhaul of its governance and a drastic break with past oligarch practices - which the current government has said it will undertake.

Such oligarch practices have been made infamous by the likes of Vladimir Plahotniuc, the former chairman of the Democratic Party, charged in the disappearance of more than $1 billion -- 12.5% of Moldova’s GDP -- from the country’s biggest banks;

“The oligarch problem in Moldova can be sorted out through justice reform. This is what Maia Sandu’s program promises. With oligarchic structures such as those present in Modova and other former soviet republics it would be very difficult for Moldova to become an EU member state. I don’t think EU could tolerate any form of corruption particularly after the experience it has had with Romania and Bulgaria”, Armand Gosu told EU Reporter.

If and how fast Moldova can root out corruption remains unclear, but the country’s pro-European president, Maia Sandu, and parliamentary majority promised zero tolerance towards wrongdoings, shortly after winning last year’s elections. The country’s European path, its security and that of the entire region rely on the government’s success in delivering on that promise.

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