Russian gas imports to the EU jump by 18% in 2024, despite plan for 2027 phase-out

Analysis from energy think tank Ember finds that imports of Russian gas to the EU rose by 18% in 2024, despite intentions to phase out Russian energy by 2027. The rise was driven by increased imports into Italy, Czechia and France.

The increase in Russian gas imports comes despite no growth in demand in 2024. Analysis also finds that the EU is planning a 54% increase in LNG import capacity as member states turn to other foreign suppliers, even though demand is expected to stay flat until 2030 and other solutions are readily available. This risks significant overbuild, with fossil gas supply set to exceed demand by 26% in 2030. This scale of overinvestment (131 bcm) is equal to the combined annual gas demand of Germany, France and Poland.

“It is a scandal that the EU is still importing Russian gas,” said Ember analyst Dr Pawel Czyzak. “Instead of investing in true alternatives like renewables and efficiency to cut off Russian imports, member states are burning money with expensive LNG capacity that won’t even be used.” 

Gas prices and supplier volatility pose threat to energy security

Ember’s analysis finds that EU gas prices rose by 59% in 2024, following years of price volatility after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This puts the European gas price benchmark around double its pre-crisis levels going into 2025. 

Security of supply from foreign sources beyond Russia has also become increasingly volatile. Heightened geopolitical tensions increase the risk of relying on US supply, even as the US is boosting LNG export capacity. While the EU has suggested plans to fund foreign LNG infrastructure and sign long term LNG contracts as a way to wean off Russian gas, this would embed further gas dependence on potentially unreliable actors.

Rise in imports and gas lock-in puts EU plans at risk

The rise in Russian gas imports was despite the European Commission’s stated intention to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. The EU still lacks a legally binding target or a published plan for phase-out. Member states can still import Russian gas through various loopholes even where restrictions are in place, such as the use of shadow vessels or by purchasing indirectly. 

The wider dash for alternative gas suppliers also conflicts with the EU’s plans, risking higher costs long term for households and industry. The recent Action Plan for Affordable Energy underlined the need to lower gas dependence to meet security and affordability objectives. 

Dr. Pawel Czyzak, Regional Lead at Ember said: “It is vital for the EU to maintain consistent strategic leadership, instead of proposing short-term actions that work against its own long-term goals. Ideas such as subsidizing volatile imported gas or reopening the Nord Stream pipeline to improve energy affordability are like adding fuel to the fire and expecting it to go out.”

Isaac Levi, Team Lead at CREA said: "The EU needs to stop dragging its feet and act immediately to implement legally binding measures—not empty promises—to set a clear timeline for ending Russian gas imports. To break free from Russian gas and constrain the Kremlin’s war-chest, the EU should enforce an LNG price cap, ban spot market purchases, and stay firm on a full gas phase-out by 2027. Without policies to restrict the flow of Russian gas into Member States, the EU risks increasing its reliance on this volatile supplier in 2025—just as it did with an 18% rise last year. Reliance on Russian gas exposes Europeans to price volatility, energy blackmail, and undermines support for its allies in Ukraine.”

Share this article: