Brexit has had 'negative' impact, says major new poll

A major new polling report reveals that British voters across all party lines - including those that support Reform UK - now believe the UK’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016 has had a “negative” impact on the country.

These, it says, include many of the key issues that shaped the original Brexit debate, such as the cost of living (66% negative), the economy (65%), opportunities for young people (57%), and tackling illegal immigration (56%).

The poll was carried out by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Published on the eve of the 10-year anniversary of Brexit (23 June), and in the aftermath of Andy Burnham’s decisive election win in Leave-voting Makerfield in the north west of England, the results of this new survey suggest the prevailing view in British society is that the UK should pursue closer relations with the EU.

The poll, which was commissioned through Mandate Research and YouGov between 7-14 May 2026, comprised four rounds of independent fieldwork and a sample of 2,210, 2,134, 2,126 and 2,146 respondents respectively.

Among its headline findings is the revelation that 75% of British voters want a closer relationship with the EU and choose it over the USA.

This includes, it states, majority support for the reintroduction of freedom of movement, closer economic ties, a common nuclear deterrent independent of America, and a plurality even for UK participation in a European army.

The authors say this cross-party alignment on integration bridges historical divides over the Brexit referendum, with 57% of ‘Leave’ voters from 2016 now willing to accept freedom of movement. Only 66% of Leave voters say they would vote to stay out of the EU in any new referendum.

In his analysis of the findings, ECFR’s founding director, Mark Leonard, says the British public has moved on fundamentally from 2016 - and that Europe is now a political opportunity for the government.

He told this site: “While Westminster obsesses about the divide between remainers and leavers, the public have started to move on, thinking about how to live in a world that looks very different from 10 years ago. Brexit divisions should be treated like the battle between ‘roundheads and cavaliers’” - historically important but not a guide to the future”.

He argues that the 2016 voter labels of ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ no longer hold their predictive force.

Leonard, instead, proposes there are now three voter camps in British society:

• ‘Optimists’ (28% of the electorate), a younger, wealthier, and more male-skewed constituency concentrated heavily among Labour (57%), Green (56%) and Liberal Democrats (47%) supporters. This group is primarily focused on the cost of living, views collective European alignment as a geopolitical necessity in a dangerous world.
• ‘Realists’ (35%), a politically diverse and demographically balanced group driven by concerns over immigration and the cost of living, this bloc supports closer ties with Europe but still views the US and Commonwealth as natural partners, drawing representation from 41% of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, 37% of Labour, 34% of Greens, and 24% of Reform UK voters.
• And ‘Loners’ (27% of the electorate), a constituency that is older, predominantly male, and heavily anchored by Reform UK supporters (67%). As a voting group, it prioritises national sovereignty and immigration control, and favours maintaining or increasing the UK's distance from Europe while looking to non-EU powers for security alignment. 

Rather than relitigating the 2016 vote or debating what he calls “outdated” frameworks like Norway or Switzerland, he suggests that leaders should pitch an entirely new proposition focused on how alignment can ease the cost of living, secure energy, and improve migration enforcement.

“To succeed, policymakers must overcome their fear of reopening old wounds and act quickly to seize fleeting international windows of opportunity, such as the final months of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency or the systemic shocks of the Trump administration.”

Key findings:

• A majority of Brits believe Brexit has had a negative impact on almost every issue they care about - including migration and the cost of living. Voters report negative impacts on the cost of living (66%), the economy (65%), opportunities for young people (57%), illegal immigration (56%), and trade and red tape (56%). Strikingly, even 58% of those who voted for Brexit believe it has exacerbated the country’s problems with illegal migration - an issue that sat at the heart of the original referendum campaign. When asked to identify the primary benefits of Brexit, the most common response by a significant margin was 'don’t know', closely followed by 'none of the above'. More pronounced, still, 57% of those surveyed believe it was “wrong” for the UK to leave the EU.
• Three quarters of the electorate now want closer ties with the EU. Two-thirds of voters believe that Brexit has adversely impacted the cost of living; a position that is now driving demand for closer economic ties with the EU (46% of those polled vs. 13% against), drawing support even from Reform UK voters by a 49% to 20% margin. This figure rises when asked if they would favour a ‘closer relationship’ with the EU (75% in favour, versus 8% preferring a ‘more distant relationship’).
• They also choose Europe over the United States as a preferred security partner. Just 18% of Britons now view the U.S. as an ally, whereas majorities now see continental neighbours, including France, Germany, Poland and Spain as partners with shared values. Perhaps more strikingly, though, is that 58% now favour closer defensive relations with Europe (compared to 19% for the U.S.), while 47% would look to the EU for support in a crisis compared to a mere 10% who would turn to Washington. This shift in opinion is particularly evident among Conservative voters, where 56% (versus 28%) would now choose strategic ties with Europe over the U.S.
• On ‘energy supply’ and ‘technology and digital services’, too, there is a clear preference for closer relations with the EU. (62% and 56%, respectively, favouring European alignment). A majority of Brits do not want to buy more weapons from the U.S., while over 60% would prefer to follow a “Buy European” policy. Pluralities would also support proposals to join other European countries in taking on common debt to pay for defence spending and sending troops to defend the Baltics or to Ukraine to enforce a peace settlement. Perhaps most striking, however, is that two thirds of Brits (63%) now want to reduce the UK’s dependence on the U.S. and participate in the development of an alternative European nuclear deterrent.
• Brits believe the UK’s approach to post-Brexit migration control has failed - but would countenance the reinstating of freedom of movement for a closer trading relationship with the EU. 

56% of those polled believe that Brexit has had a “negative” impact on the Government’s ability to control “immigrations coming illegally” to the UK. A plurality of respondents (40%) also stated that there were fewer immigrants arriving on small boats before Brexit, including 46% of Green Party and Labour voters, 43% of Lib Dem voters, and 41% of Conservative voters, as well as 42% of Reform voters, showing cross-party room for greater UK-EU cooperation on border control and enforcement.

• The perceived failure of post-Brexit immigration policy seems to have changed the politics around UK-EU freedom of movement. 

A majority (66%) - including 45% of 2016 ‘Leave’ voters - would now accept freedom of movement outright while only 18% reject it. This suggests that freedom of movement no longer holds the centrality it used to in the UK’s Europe debate. Even among those whose top concern is immigration, a plurality of 44% would support the freedom of movement in exchange for closer economic ties with the EU.

• Progressives are united, and Conservatives split, on the subject of rejoining. 

The survey indicates that progressive voters are now highly unified, while conservative groups remain divided - marking a clear reversal of the political coalitions formed during the 2016 referendum. Supporters of Labour (83%), the Liberal Democrats (76%), and the Green Party (90%) overwhelmingly back closer ties with the EU and favour eventual reintegration. Conversely, Conservative voters are increasingly split, with one in three favoring a vote to rejoin the bloc. This fragmentation is particularly visible among the 47% of voters the Tories lost in 2024 - primarily to Reform UK (28%) and the Liberal Democrats (6%). Strikingly, majorities across all of these defected factions favour closer ties with the EU, including 60% of those who switched to Reform UK and 86% who moved to the Liberal Democrats.

• According to an additional new ECFR poll conducted across 15 EU countries, there is strong, pan-European support for future UK membership. 

Across the bloc, and, indeed, every country surveyed, large majorities (66% on average) would welcome the return of the UK to the European project - a figure that outstrips the number of people who favour a ‘closer relationship’ (59%) or the ‘status quo’ (46%). This feeling ranged from 56% in Bulgaria and 59% in France and Italy, to 75% in the Netherlands and Denmark - with almost 50% of Danes backing the idea "a lot". European voters of new-right parties are surprisingly supportive of closer relations with the UK, including a majority of backers of Poland’s Confederation (71% in favour), Germany’s AfD (58%) and France’s National Rally (58%). The overwhelming majority of new-right voters also view the UK as an ally or necessary partner.

Commenting on the survey findings, Leonard said: “Ten years ago, Brexit was the insurgent vehicle for a nation rejecting the status quo.

“However, a decade on, Brits realise their hopes for a better life outside the EU are going unfulfilled and that Brexit is undermining the UK’s ability to manage the issues voters care about most.

“This data shows that the vast majority of citzens is open to a closer relationship.  Rather than refighting the battles of 2016 the government must push or a new relationship with Europe that speaks directly to the everyday concerns of citizens on cost of living, migration and security.  Rather than talking about red lines we should have a green light to a debate about how Europe can help rebuild the UK and its global influence for the 2030s and 2040s.”

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