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"Bucha Massacre", A Possible Major Turning Point in Russia-Ukraine War

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The recently exposed "Bucha Massacre" incident is becoming a new focus of
global attention and is likely to become a critical turning point in
changing the course of the Russia-Ukraine war - writes He Jun*

After the withdrawal of Russian forces from the suburbs of Kyiv, the
Ukrainian army regained control of the relevant areas on April 2. On the
next day, the Ukrainian army alleged that the Russian army carried out a
"massacre" in the town of Bucha near Kyiv. Ukrainian media released a
series of pictures and videos of the death of civilians there, which
immediately aroused strong reactions from parts of the world. The Russian
Ministry of Defense denied the incident on the very same day calling the
images a "hoax". On April 4, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said
that the Bucha incident was an attempt by the Ukrainian side to use "fake
news" to "attack" Russia. On April 4, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence
of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that soldiers of Russia’s 64th
Motor Rifle Brigade should be responsible for the Bucha incident. According
to Prosecutor General of Ukraine Iryna Venediktova, 410 civilian bodies
were found in the Kyiv region. “I would like to emphasize that we are
interested in the most complete, transparent investigation, the results of
which will be known and explained to the entire international community,”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after visiting the town of
Bucha on April 4 writes *He Jun of* *ANBOUND RESEARCH CENTER (Malaysia)*

Regarding the dispute between the two sides, the New York Times and The
Times conducted a comparative study of video and satellite images. The
results showed that between March 9 and March 11, there appeared on
Yablonska Street in the town of Bucha "dark objects of similar size to a
human body". As shown in footage from April 2, these objects appeared at
the exact location where the bodies were found after Ukrainian troops
recaptured the town. Further analysis showed that the objects remained in
the same position for more than three weeks. That is purportedly saying
that many civilians were killed more than three weeks ago when the Russian
military took control of the town.

Western countries have unanimously agreed that the Russian army is to be
blamed for the "Bucha Massacre". Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's envoy to the
United Nations has twice called for an emergency meeting of the Security
Council and submitted evidence to the Security Council that the incident
was a propaganda campaign planned by Ukraine. The United Kingdom, which now
holds the rotating chair of the United Nations Security Council, however,
rejected Russia's request for an emergency meeting.

An independent investigation into the "Bucha Massacre" incident has yet to
take place, but Western countries have begun further sanctions against
Russia, including diplomatic sanctions where several countries have
expelled Russian diplomats. Germany expelled 40 of the diplomats, France
35, and Italy 30. As of April 5, at least 8 European countries announced
the expulsion of Russian diplomats, and the number of expulsions has
exceeded 150. The United States, meanwhile, has asked the UN General
Assembly to suspend Russia's seat on the UN Human Rights Council. These
rare and drastic diplomatic sanctions are second only to the severing of
diplomatic ties. They will put Russia's diplomatic ties with Europe and the
United States on ice for the foreseeable future.

The West is also imposing further severe economic sanctions on Russia.
According to the tracking of researchers at ANBOUND, on April 5, Ursula von
der Leyen, President of the European Commission announced the content of
the fifth round of sanctions against Russia, including (1) Prohibiting
Russian vessels from entering the ports of EU countries. (2) Banning the
export of semiconductors, machinery and transport equipment worth EUR 10
billion to Russia. (3) Prohibiting Russian companies from participating in
EU public procurement. (4) Banning financial support for Russian state
institutions. (5) Imposing an import ban on coal from Russia, worth EUR 4
billion per year. (6) A full transaction ban on four key Russian banks. (7)
Proposing a ban on Russian and Belarusian road transport operators. (8) The
EU is studying new sanctions on oil imports from Russia. It can be seen
that this round of EU sanctions has begun to touch the previously sensitive
energy sector. The United States, whose economic sanctions against Russia
are approaching the limit, is still considering tightening sanctions on
Sberbank. In addition, the IRS suspended tax information exchanges with
Russian tax authorities. The U.S. Treasury Department said the purpose of
the moratorium on tax information was to reduce Russian taxes and funding
for military operations.

What is more important than sanctions, however, is that the "Bucha
Massacre" episode will have a huge influence on the confrontation between
Russia and Ukraine, and may even result in a substantial shift in the
direction of the war. It will not only put more pressure on Russia, but it
may also prolong the situation in Russia and Ukraine into an uncertain
future, posing tremendous threats to the globe and perhaps resulting in
massive tragedies.

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To begin with, the "Bucha Massacre" incident added fresh factors to the
war's stalemate. Since the Russia-Ukraine crisis began, Zelenskyy has
spoken to the world every day, but there are fewer and fewer materials for
him to utilize. The stalemate of war has dragged down Russia but has
dragged down Ukraine as well. Based on the support pattern of the United
States and Europe in the past, it would be difficult for Ukraine to reverse
the situation. Just as Ukraine gradually fell into the dilemma of seeking a
"re-breakthrough", a video showing the Ukrainian army shooting Russian
captives surfaced, prompting Zelenskyy to declare that an inquiry will be
launched. Then, the "Bucha Massacre" incident "suddenly" emerged, providing
Ukraine with additional material. It may well be a turning point where
Zelenskyy may remind the international community that Russia is not only
Ukraine's opponent, but the world's enemy, and that the Russian military is
relentless in its 'carnage'. For such an army, war has only one outcome,
and that is victory. As a result, France, Germany, and Israel, who were
passive and hesitant about sanctions in the past, should provide Ukraine
with everything it wants.

Second, the "Bucha Massacre" incident gave an incontrovertible new cause
for an increase in the West's military aid to Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg,
Secretary-General of NATO revealed on April 5 that the foreign ministers of
NATO member countries will discuss the issue of providing more assistance
to Ukraine from April 6 to 7. “NATO Allies are stepping up support with
air-defense missiles, anti-tank weapons, as well as humanitarian and
financial aid,” he stated. In addition, NATO will also increase
humanitarian and financial support to Ukraine. The United States will
provide Ukraine with heavy weapons such as long-range air defense systems.
U.S. National Security Adviser John Sullivan has pledged that the U.S. will
supply Ukraine with more military aid in the coming days. According to
Sullivan's explanation, the weapons provided to Ukraine include long-range
air defense systems, artillery systems and coastal defense systems.
Sullivan said the pace of arms and arms shipments to Ukraine had been
"unprecedented".

Finally, Ukraine's stance has hardened, potentially complicating the
Russia-Ukraine talks. On April 1, Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainians will
not accept any conclusion "other than victory". On the conditions for
reaching a peace agreement, he stated that "we do not trade our territory",
and added that “the question of territorial integrity and sovereignty is
out of discussion”.

Compared with the past, Zelenskyy appears to be more confident and is
imposing more conditions for negotiations. In the past, he had hoped to
meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, but his latest remarks suggest that
there may not be a meeting with Putin for now. It is worth noting that he
also began to change his tune on joining NATO. In a live broadcast on
Ukrainian TV on April 5, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not even discuss
the terms of demilitarization and the alleged de-Nazification in the
negotiations with Russia. Ukraine is ready to join NATO if NATO proposes.
He also said that if all parties want to end the war, including Ukraine’s
Western partners, there is still more work to do.

*Written by He Jun*

*Partner, Director of China Macro-Economic Research Team and Senior
Researcher. His research field covers China’s macro-economy, energy
industry and public policy.*

*ANBOUND RESEARCH CENTER (Malaysia)*

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