The possibility of Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations in 2025

Amidst the changing geopolitical landscape of the current world, even in the scenario where the United States fulfills its commitment to providing all the weapons and funding approved by Congress for Ukraine, the latter's ongoing challenges with bureaucracy and corruption mean that these resources will likely only sustain the conflict for an additional six months at most, writes ANBOUND Founder Kung Chan.

By the fall of 2025, Ukraine will likely begin negotiations with Russia toward establishing a ceasefire, and the most probable outcome will be a gradual de-escalation along the front lines, marking the beginning of a preliminary peace. However, achieving a comprehensive and lasting peace that satisfies the interests of both sides will certainly take much longer. A ceasefire, if it occurs, would still represent a significant step forward, and by that point, the sounds of artillery in Europe would likely diminish. With all these in mind, 2025 is shaping up to be a highly crucial year.

What will Ukraine's position be? President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is unlikely to accept a ceasefire without significant political consequences. The Ukrainian people will likely express dissatisfaction, particularly given the high human cost of the conflict. The government may struggle to explain the loss of life and the perceived failure to achieve a decisive victory, turning this issue into a political crisis. Zelenskyy may attempt to shift blame, potentially targeting U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, though it remains unclear whether this narrative would resonate with the Ukrainian public. In any case, a ceasefire could severely undermine Zelenskyy’s political standing, and Ukraine could find itself in a difficult position, effectively sidelined in the broader European context.

From Russia's perspective, President Vladimir Putin must also consider the future of Russia's relationship with the US and the West. Putin certainly wants Russia to maintain its status as a major power, which may only be achievable through a ceasefire in Ukraine. Without it, meaningful dialogue would be impossible. Furthermore, Russia’s resources are nearing depletion. While Putin has demanded a clear victory, the strain on the Russian military and economy, coupled with growing discontent at home means that this "victory" may be increasingly out of reach. Russia’s forces are also insufficient to control Ukraine fully, and even a sustained full-scale effort would be unlikely to change that. Thus, Putin is under pressure to engage in negotiations before the situation becomes untenable. With casualties mounting, Russia is approaching its breaking point, and it is likely that one million military casualties would be the maximum the country could endure.

The real challenges, however, will arise after a ceasefire. Global oil and gas prices are expected to experience significant volatility, and the question of how to handle Russia's frozen national assets will pose a major issue for the international community. Additionally, Ukraine’s reconstruction and Russia's future role in global affairs remain unresolved concerns. These issues have not yet received much attention, as many still doubt the likelihood of a peace settlement in Ukraine by 2025.

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