Is the ‘King of the North’ on course to topple the prime minister of the UK?

Reporter Else Kvist has visited the constituency in the north of England, where voters going to the polls (18 June) could decide who the next prime minister is, writes Else Kvist.

The mayor of Greater Manchester has made no secret of his intentions to challenge Keir Starmer (pictured) for the leadership of the Labour Party, if he wins today’s (18 June) by-election.

Andy Burnham is on a mission to turn around the fortunes of the embattled Labour Party.

For if opinion polls are to be believed, Nigel Farage could walk through the door at Downing Street, if a general election was held tomorrow.

But first Burnham would have to win a seat in parliament in a constituency which voted heavily for leave in the Brexit referendum in 2016 and where Reform UK came a close second at the general election in 2024.

And as is evident from the many election posters that have shut up across Makerfield, this race is too close to call, as the Manchester Mayor battles it out with a local plumber standing for Reform UK.

So what do voters on the ground make of it all? 

Labour campaigners have reportedly knocked on every door in the constituency at least six times.

Some residents, who have been identified as undecided voters, have even received a personal visit from Andy Burnham, knocking on their door to try and persuade them to vote for him and give the Labour Party a second chance.

Burnham’s campaign is relying heavily on his own brand as mayor and personal style to convince voters in this by-election, to put their trust in him.

The Labour brand appears to have been damaged amid accusations that the party hasn’t delivered on the change it promised.

But local councillor Robert Kenyon standing for Reform has also been caught up in controversy after unearthed social media posts found him to have made offensive and sexist remarks.

Comments he refused to apologies for during a panel discussion on BBC Question Time, where many thought he was out of his depth as he found himself up against experienced politicians like Burnham, who was a government minister during the Blair government.

As I take to the street of Ashton-in-Makerfield, one of the towns which make up the constituency, it doesn’t take long before you sense the frustration of voters with both Labour and Reform, depending on who you talk to. 

Digging away in his front garden is Ray Ashton, an 86-year old retired engineer. He tells me he has voted Labour all his life, but is now weighing up whether to give Labour another chance with Burnham or put his faith in Reform.

“I like Burnham, he has brought a lot of investment to Manchester and improved the bus system.

He might do a better job if he gets into power instead of this Starmer,” he said. Asked whether he would like to see Burnham as Prime Minister, he replied: “Yes, I would welcome that, get rid of Starmer.

He has done that many U-turns.”

Ray voted for the current government in the last general election but says two years in he is very disappointed. Even as migration figures have been decreasing, Ray doesn’t believe it. 

“Starmer said they were going to take control of the borders, which they never did. Since we have come out of the EU, what I’ve noticed is that the government has not been able to control the borders. They put however many millions into France to stop the boats and it hasn’t happened.” 

When asked what appeals to him about Reform, he responds: “If they can stop immigration.I think we should be training our own English people to do the jobs. That’s if the jobs are even there.”

He also believes it has become too easy for many to claim benefits without having to prove that they are looking for a job.

But he is not convinced whether Reform has the “right people” to deliver on other issues than migration, and this is what he is weighing up as he decides where to put his cross in the by-election. 

Ray has lived in Ashton-in-Makerfield since 1979 and has seen his local high street change over the years.

“They say shops suffer because of taxes or whatever. But when they close, who are they taken over by? People selling vapes and drinks.”

He also says that terraced houses are being turned into houses for asylum seekers, as he points to a house opposite him. “I’ll tell you what is happening, and it was the same under the last government as well.

The rich people who live in London employ companies, which come up here and buy up two bed terraced houses and turn them into a three bedsit for asylum seekers.” 

As I wander further along the streets, I spot a woman, who has just finished a pilates class.  

Sarah Johnston, aged 52, is a shop assistant, who used to work for a government office. She knows exactly how she will be voting in the by-election and it’s for Reform. “There are a lot of people here, and I don’t just mean people coming into this country, who get more money from not working than people like myself working really hard in a shop.

All my family have worked really hard all their lives. I have a brother in law who is 63, so he is too young to get a state pension and he is extremely poorly.

He had an operation that went wrong, so he hasn’t worked as a lorry driver since October.

They have only just got enough money to cover the bills even though my sister works in government. He is getting no help, the benefits office said they will review it in September.

He has worked all his life and it makes me so cross that there is no help when he needs it. I know a lot of people who are voting for Andy in this by-election. But they say that when it comes to the next General Election, they will vote Reform because they don’t want Labour back in.”

After passing many more rows of houses decorated with competing election signs and posters, I reach the main high street in Ashton-in-Makerfield.

Here I’m met with the sight of a boarded up pub adorned with pop-art posters of cartoon images of Burnham created by a local artist and second generation immigrant.

The message is that a ‘vote for Andy’ is a ‘vote for hope’. Other posters indicate that a ‘vote for Andy’ is a ‘vote for us’ in a town that feels it has been left behind and neglected for decades. 

As I reach a local butcher, its manager Peter Cain is in no doubt that Burnham is the man to turn things around. Although he used to vote for the Conservatives, he now believes they are finished as a party, and he is now backing Burnham. He has no time for Reform.

“I believe Andy will bring investment into town. He did a lot for Leigh, when he was the MP for that area, he turned an old mining pit into a beautiful marina.”

Peter doesn’t believe Reform can deliver on all their promises on migration and the economy. “What they say they are going to do with tax cuts and cutting public spending, I don’t know how they are going to do it. The local councillor standing for Reform is “out of his depth” as you saw from his appearance on BBC Question Time.”

Peter is hoping Burnham can bring the country together and improve the standard of living for everyone. He is in favour of his policies to nationalise or bring essential services under public control, as he has seen his utility bills in the shop rise. “The shareholders are having a laugh taking all the profits.” 

As polls close this evening at 10pm UK time, the overnight count will prove whether Burnham has found a route back to Parliament to challenge Starmer for the leadership.

Opinion polls are showing this to be a tightly fought race between Labour and Reform with the possibility of the relatively new party of Restore under Rupert Lowe, who fell out with Farage, splitting the vote on the right.

Other parties such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats are not expected to pick up many votes in what is essentially a two horse race. 

My takeaway was that Labour campaigners I spoke to were cautiously optimistic, but still worried that more Reform voters could turn out on the day to upset things.

But if Andy Burnham can win here, whether by a small or larger margin, in what is seen as a major Reform supporting constituency, then his path to Number 10 Downing Street could be paved. 

A full list of candidates standing in the by-election can be found here:

Makerfield by-election candidates' short manifestos

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