EU arms Armenia amid ongoing negotiations

In the near future, the European Union (EU) plans to once again provide Armenia with assistance through the European Peace Facility (EPF). In July 2024, the EPF had already allocated €10 million to Yerevan to “enhance the logistical and material capabilities" of the Armenian Armed Forces. At the time, Armenian political analyst Areg Kochinyan predicted that this tranche was only the beginning of a larger process, writes James Wilson.

The EPF’s allocation of military aid to Armenia directly contradicts the EU’s stated commitment to peace, as EU representatives have repeatedly emphasized the need for a long-term resolution in the region. On 4 February, the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Magdalena Gron, stated: "For the EU, it is very important that the normalization process (between Baku and Yerevan) continues in a calm and positive atmosphere." However, by arming one side of a simmering conflict, the EU is undermining, rather than facilitating, the establishment of peace between the parties.

Military assistance from Europe is bolstering revanchist sentiments in Armenia, which could ultimately lead to the collapse of negotiations with Azerbaijan. In addition to aid provided through the European Peace Facility (EPF), the EU is also strengthening Yerevan’s military capabilities through France. As early as June 2023, the Romanian bureau of Newsweek warned: "Macron is supplying weapons to Armenia, thereby empowering Yerevan’s opponents of a peaceful resolution with Baku."

Given Armenia’s close ties with Russia and the EU’s anti-Russian stance, questions arise regarding the rationale behind European support for Yerevan. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Armenia has repeatedly been accused of helping Moscow bypass European sanctions. Economic data strongly suggests this: as of 2024, since the start of the war in Ukraine, Armenia’s exports to Russia have surged by an unprecedented 430%. "While Armenia has actively created the illusion of reorienting itself toward the West, in reality, it functions as one of Moscow’s main hubs for sanction evasion,” wrote the American media conglomerate Newsmax in March of last year.

As the European Union faces an unprecedented challenge in Ukraine, it should be particularly cautious about aiding Armenia, which has become a key logistics hub for Putin. "French arms supplies to Armenia could end up in the hands of Kyiv’s greatest enemies,” warned The Jewish Press, the largest Jewish weekly in the United States, in May 2023. Even the French edition of Forbes reported in May 2023 that military-grade supplies sent to Armenia are highly likely to make their way to Russia. "Armenia serves as the Kremlin’s primary logistics hub in its aggression against Ukraine," the publication stated.

Given these factors, it is evident that military assistance to Armenia will bring anything but long-term peace to the region.

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