Opinion: Eastern Partnership - Requiem

The deployment of Russian peacekeeping troops in Crimea closes the chapter of the relationship between the EU and Russia that has lasted for a decade as European enlargement policy has crashed into the Russian-speaking territories of Ukraine. The four common spaces, visa facilitation - these now seem irrelevant in the situation over the new divisions between the EU and Russia over Ukraine.

The failure to sign the Association Agreement at the Vilnus Summit appears fatal, not only for ousted President Yanukovich, but also for the whole tribe of Eurocrats led by Baroness Catherine Ashton and Commissioner Štefan Füle, who were relentlessly pushing the scheduled plan for a signature, with a new deadline in March.  In their zeal to report success on the eve of the European elections, they exaggerated the pressure, bringing the entire affair to total collapse.

A young state, created from different territories within different political contexts, Ukraine appeared too fragile in the face of a complicated choice and the democratic institutions were too weak to guarantee a peaceful resolution to the political dilemma. The political dispute, reflecting the profound divide in Ukrainian society over the future of the country, degraded into bloodshed and tragic loss of human life. A country with a population of 45 million is on the brink of civil war, with unrest spreading swiftly across the regions.

In analyzing the outcome of the intense Eastern Partnership policy led by Ashton, one question persists - what would change if they accepted their failure at the stage of signing the agreement, and waited patiently for the presidential elections in Ukraine? Where does the urgency come from to sign this document? The Ukrainian government would receive the promised €15 billion in loans from Russia to resolve the most urgent payments, and the country’s indebted economy would gain substantial aid, although a Russian bail-out would not be able to change the personal fate of Yanukovich – his star has faded.

The likelihood of pro-European forces coming to power in the next elections is high, in fact it is almost certain.

Now, reflecting upon the Ukranian route to the EU, which is paved with corpses on Maidan Square, does the EU have plans to integrate a country of 45 million  and a €30bn sovereign debt? Will Ashton impose the bail-out of Ukraine onto European citizens in the name of solidarity? Most probably, this form of crisis resolution is  preferred by Eurocrats, but it would hardly be understood by over-taxed European citizens.

Within the Ukranian debt crisis, European integration is worth mentioning, as there was no such plan during the days of the Orange Revolution and it doesn’t exist now. Europe has no means or plans to reform and integrate an agricultural country of this scale.

There were voluntary plans to sign an Association Agreement, with artificial deadlines dictated by the vanity of certain players who were looking to enlarge their own political capital.

When the Orange Revolution broke out,  the EU did not have the courage and ambition to offer a European perspective and candidacy status to Ukraine. To many, this seemed unfair: why did Turkey receive candidacy status, and Ukraine, which is a European country, did not?

The haste of the Eurocrats to promote their plans to meet the deadlines, resulted in devastating consequences for enlargement policy in general and for Ukraine as a country in particular.

While stripping the Russian language of its regional status was a paramount legislative intitiative of the Ukrainian parliament Rada, it was taken as a blow against identity by the eastern provinces, which are traditionally Russian speaking. While the EU is enlarging its family of languages, putting forward diversity as an advantage, the newly arrived Ukranian leaders did not think of anything better than to begin by attacking the rights of the Russian-speaking population.

This Rada decree played a crucial role in splitting the population – the eastern provinces took it as a sign of segregation. The one-day campaign in support of the Russian language in Lvov in Galicia, could not take away the negative effect of the Rada decision.

However, the political will of the EU bureaucrats has more negative effect beyond Ukraine - the images of Maidan Square covered with corpses will reflect on any kind of political opposition in the post-Soviet states. Pointing at Maidan, the Kremlin will turn the screw to muzzle any kind of opposition political activity.

The unwillingness of the Eurocrats to be patient and wait for the next presidential elections has allowed President Yanukovich to define the government as "illegitimate". This is a considerable complication on the way to the ultimate goal – the Association Agreement signature – as Yanukovich is the elected president and his election was recognized as free and fair.

But the de-jure problems are secondary to the de-facto: who is going to bail out Ukraine? The sovereign debt is growing every day -  capital is fleeing the country. Meanwhile, the winter report of the European Commission shows that not all EU countries have managed to overcome the economic crisis.

Next to the EU's problematic economies, there are Balkan countries awaiting EU aid, with alarming statistics such as Montenegro, with more than half its population unemployed. While the integration of the Balkans still represents a challenge, the Eurocrats are turning East. Will this overstretching of resources help Europe to win the sympathies of its electorate? Will they approve the bailing-out of Ukraine?

The answer will be delivered very soon in the ballot-boxes of the European elections. There will be a second round of reactions in 2017, when UK citizens will conduct a referendum on their engagement with Europe and will provide a definitive answer as to their agreement with Ashton’s Eastern Partnership policy to impose payment for the Ukranian sovereign debt. However, Eurocrats are not able to anticipate EU citizens, as they are not taxpayers, they are tax consumers. While Yanukovich's bank accounts are reportedly frozen, why can't this measure also be applied to the ensemble of Ukrainian oligarchs to make them bail out their own country?

On the eve of the European elections, the Eurocrats were desperate to report their foreign policy success with Ukraine, as there were not so many in terms of improvements to the wellbeing of European citizens. The upcoming March summit was scheduled as a triumphant event to cheer the mood of the electorate, but the frenzy of European apparatchiks to meet the deadline proved fatal. There are nothing but failures to report: Eastern policy is dead.

Anna van Densky

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