#UKIP become kingmakers as referendum campaign is put on hold in Wales

The entry of UKIP into Welsh politics - they went from zero seats to seven in last week’s elections to the National Assembly for Wales - has propelled the anti-EU party into the position of kingmakers, writes Owain Glyndwr.

Assembly members met on Wednesday to try to agree on a First Minister, with Labour’s Carwyn Jones apparently confident that his name would be submitted to the Queen for approval.

But Carwyn Jones found his ambition to form a second minority government blocked. Labour has 29 of the 60 members and had secured the support of the one remaining Liberal Democrat. The biggest opposition party, the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru, has just 12 seats but its leader, Leanne Wood was also backed by both the 11 Conservatives and seven UKIP members.

A tied vote meant that the Assembly will have to try again, probably next week but certainly by June 1, after which another election would be called. The roll call vote led to gasps from the Labour benches as the Conservatives named Leanne Wood as their choice. Such sounds of amazement were largely synthetic as the Conservatives had been clear throughout the election that if Labour fell below 30 seats, they would vote to remove Carwyn Jones from office.

The shocked noises were a bit more genuine when UKIP declared for Leanne Wood. Not only had Plaid Cymru spent the election ruling out any deals with that party but it was something of a surprise that the UKIP AMs all voted the same way.

UKIP Wales is led by its MEP, Nathan Gill, who now also sits in the Welsh Assembly. But he was successfully challenged for the group leadership by Neil Hamilton, who has emerged as Nigel Farage’s most vocal critic within the party.

The group of seven seemed divided between three Faragists, led by Gill, and four anti-Faragists, led by Hamilton. And despite Thursday’s show of UKIP unity, Labour confirmed that Gill rang them last night to ask to speak to Carwyn Jones. Although Jones was not available another senior Labour figure took note of Gill’s thoughts on how UKIP might shift its position on who should be First Minister.

This came after several hours of Labour claims that Plaid Cymru had done a deal with UKIP.

Gill denies that he would break ranks with his group and do a deal with Labour on his own. However, he has been left considering his position after losing out to Hamilton for the group leadership. He could chose to return to the European Parliament, as he says he won’t decide whether to give up his seat there until after the referendum on 23 June.

Until the question of First Minister is resolved, Welsh politicians cannot focus on the question of Britain’s membership of the European Union. Parts of Wales remain shockingly poor and apart from Cornwall are the only places in north-west Europe to still qualify for the top level of European regional aid.

Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru were set to sink their differences for several weeks of campaigning on the same side, calling for Britain to remain in the EU. That’s been put on hold until a new Welsh Government is in place, with a Labour Plaid Cymru deal still looking like the only viable long term option. But for now they’re both too busy accusing one another of hatching deals with UKIP.

No doubt Nigel Farage would prefer his not-so loyal followers in Wales to also switch their attention to the referendum. Meanwhile David Cameron is barely on speaking terms with the Welsh Conservatives’ leader, Andrew Davies, who has declared for Brexit.

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