#Belarus 'wants change', says Europe

In a recent statement, EU President Ursula von der Leyen unambiguously said that “Belarus want change”. Most likely, this phrase best reflects the essence of what is happening in the country two weeks after the controversial president election on 9 August. The people of Belarus are obviously tired of 26 years of Lukashenko’s rule, tired of economic troubles and, most importantly, of the lack of democratic freedoms, writes Alex Ivanov, Moscow correspondent.

“Lukashenko go away!” is the most heard slogan during mass rallies that shake the capital Minsk and other major towns of the country. Demonstrations are on and on, while every time they attract more and more people who indeed want change.

What about authorities and Lukashenko himself? Obviously they are nervous and outraged.

After an unprecedented crackdown on demonstrations in the first days after the election, the authorities adopted a different tactic. Now all rallies and mass marches are held peacefully, almost no one is detained. Moreover, the law enforcement agencies released all the people detained earlier, and the interior Minister even apologized for the unfair actions of his subordinates. At the same time, Lukashenko, who is losing control over the situation in the country,  hastened to say that 60% of the videos about the suppression of protest demonstrations are fakes, and in other cases, the police forces should not be blamed.

Mass protests are taking place by workers of many factories that form the basis of the economy of Belarus. Lukashenko's attempts to talk to workers at one of the factories only led to a scandal. Angry Lukashenko left the meeting under the traditional calls - “leave".

Political and economic life in 10 million Belarus has stopped. The authorities say that the country's economy has suffered enormous damage, which will take many years to repair. The population actively buys foreign currency, which threatens the budget of the Republic with the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble.

Lukashenko is desperately trying to negotiate assistance in stabilizing the situation in the country with Russia, the main sponsor and guarantor of the country's shaky economy.

In Moscow, the events in Belarus are commented on very sparingly. The Russian foreign Ministry said that Belarus is "facing external influence". During his contacts with French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel, President Putin strongly warned his Western colleagues against attempts to interfere in the internal Affairs of Belarus.

The European Union has formed a clear opinion about the illegitimacy of the presidential elections in Belarus. Lukashenko is not recognized as president, but the EU will have to work with him, since there are no other actors in the country's power structures.

The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, in his invitation to European leaders at the summit on August 19, urged countries not to interfere in the Affairs of Belarus: "The people of Belarus have the right to determine their own future. To ensure this, it is necessary to stop violence and start a peaceful and inclusive dialogue."

The EU should continue to work with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, since it is he who controls power in the country, although the EU does not recognize his legitimacy, said the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrel in an interview with El Pais.

"We do not recognize him (Lukashenko) as a legitimate President. As we do not recognize the President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro. From this point of view, Maduro and Lukashenko are in exactly the same situations. We do not accept that they were chosen legally. However, whether we like it or not, they control the government, and we must continue to do business with them, even though we do not recognize their democratic legitimacy," Borrel said.

Many conspiracy scenarios are being considered for the development of the situation in Belarus. Some analysts in Minsk believe that the fate of Lukashenko will be decided only in Moscow. There are opinions that the Kremlin is looking for suitable candidates to replace Lukashenko. There are no names yet, but there are suggestions that the future successor will be asked to sign an Agreement on the creation of a Union state on the terms of Moscow. All this is speculation, which has not yet been confirmed by anyone on either side.

However, it is clear that Moscow is extremely concerned about the situation in Belarus. It is obvious that this will not be a new Maidan and that the country will dramatically change the vector of its development towards Europe.

This is also recognized in Europe, emphasizing that the protests in Belarus do not reflect the desire of the Belarusian people to become part of Europe. There are no EU flags at protest events, as it was the case in Ukraine in 2014. None of the opposition leaders has expressed their intention to work for the country's accession to the European Union.

At the moment, it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the protests in Belarus. Lukashenko still clings to power, supported by the military and police apparatus. He is well aware that the country will no longer be the same, obedient mechanism that he can dispose of at his own discretion, despite the opinion of the people.

Most likely, Minsk will be asked to implement reforms to stabilize the situation in the country at the request of Moscow. However, it is not clear to what extent these changes will affect the state mechanism of Belarus and to what extent they will affect strategic relations with Russia.

It is obvious that against the background of pressure from Europe and the United States, Minsk will be guided by the opinion of its ally - Russia.

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