How effectively Western countries can return to Iran deal after Trump administration

Despite a strong opposition from Trump’s election campaign towards the US election 2020 results, media have announced Joe Biden as the next US president. This raised a wave of “hope” among leaders around a world who believe the unilateral decisions by US administration under Trump is over and US would try to reconstruct the US foreign Policy with cuddling old allies in Europe, as Joe Biden already stated his commitments to return the US to Paris climate agreement and Iran nuclear deal, writes Ali Bagheri.

Possible improvement in EU and US relationship should not be exaggerated

Clearly, Joe Biden presents a totally different personality than Donald Trump. However, Europe cannot risk its relationship with US only based on the personality of the new president not foreseeing the bone structure of US foreign Policy. François Hollande, former French president, believes: “Joe Biden's victory would bring a form of appeasement and open the transatlantic dialogue on subjects as major as the climate, Iran and the relationship with China. His eventual victory will not reverse the trends seen under the Obama presidency, or even some of Trump's inflections. He will have to take into account the protectionist sensitivity that now exists in his country. Finally, the United States, which no longer wants to be the policeman of the world, will not intend to ensure the security of Europe in an intangible way.” (Le Soir – 18 October).

Geopolitician Caroline Galactéros believes what Europe suffers more is the lack of a strategic vision in its foreign policy. “We believe that things will go well without coercion and we no longer know how to lead” She stated in an interview with L’Echo (6 November). “With Trump, Europe therefore found itself both orphaned and naked in the face of the lusts of all the other actors… Joe Biden could put the forms back, especially with the Europeans. He has already started by referring to a return of the United States to the Paris Climate Agreement.” However, Caroline Galactéros does not feel the same way for Iran deal. “The Iranian nuclear deal should be recast, according to American and Israeli interests,” she added.

All in all, experts anticipate the US administration would try return to the previous path as Obama, however it is unlikely to expect that he can get a big achievement in his first round because there are a lot of actions to reverse while EU remains caution about the outcome of the next election within 4 years. Moreover, the presence of Biden in the white house and a better relationship with EU can make even a stronger alliance for US political agenda about Iran. Especially when EU has deep concerns for increasing number of terror attacks on its soil and the case of the Iranian diplomat terrorist in Belgium.

Iran and middle east are different playgrounds for EU and US

Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” policy towards Iran squeezed this country’s economics and isolated Iran from most of its benefits of JCPOA. Biden wants to return to Iran Nuclear Deal, but he needs to convince major counterparts in the region such as Saudi-Arabia and Israel. Moreover, he will not risk returning to the JCPOA as it was signed back in 2015. Especially when Iran has broken most of its commitments and keep following its ballistic missile program. Besides, Democrats are not enthusiasm to bow to the Ayatollah when there exists a both partisan agreement on Trump’s policy towards Iran. Resolution 734 which received more than 221 supports (bipartisan support) in US congress clearly condemns Iranian state-sponsored terrorism and expressing support for the Iranian people's desire for a democratic, secular, and non-nuclear republic of Iran. Therefore, on the viewpoint of US politicians nothing has changed towards Iran that Joe Biden can restrain. They also have EU as their alliance to follow their agenda towards Iran too.

The other factor is Iran itself. Donald Trump started a “maximum pressure” campaign not because he loved to do so but the protests in Iran became that much radical that left no ways for him except to follow these steps. Donald Trump asked Iranian authorities for a new round of negotiations several times, and he believes he would make a deal in his second round. But let’s analysis his actions towards Iran when the Iranian people and their resistance are involved in the problem.

Trump withdrew from JCPOA after a major uprising in December 2017 and January 2018 in Iran. “US could never leave JCPOA if 2018 Uprising has not occurred” stated Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, in his speech in the Parliament in November 2018. The other important action of Trump administration was the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, who has been in US and EU terrorist lists for years. Again, it was not Trump to make this decision, November 2019 uprising in Iran left more than 1500 unarmed protesters who have been killed by IRGC troops in Iran’s streets. This uprising shook the Iranian regime to its foundations that Trump felt no hesitation to remove Qassem Solimani just with a blink. Joe Biden also confirms Trumps action in his statement. “No Americans will mourn Qassem Soleimani, He deserved to be brought to justice for his crimes against American troops and thousands of innocents throughout the region” Biden wrote in his statement.

Iranian resistance is a key player that cannot be ignored

In conclusion, no matter if the U.S. president is a Democrat or Republican the foreign policy of the U.S. remains the same regarding the rest of the world. Maybe Joe Biden will not use the same tough words as Trump did, but he will also stick to a policy in favor of American interests putting America first. However, the situation for Iran is different, because the balance of power is not just about the Iranian regime and Western countries anymore. A key player has arisen in Iran’s political platform which is the Iranian resistance with the support of the Iranian people and resistance units inside the country. The National Council of Resistance of Iran who has announced his resistance unit’s strategy since 2012 for regime change in Iran has proven its capabilities to organize nationwide uprising and continues to do so regardless of foreign powers desires.

Ali Bagheri is an energy engineer, PhD from University of Mons. He is an Iranian activist and an advocate for human rights and democracy in Iran. Email: [email protected] Phone: +32 474 08 6554 Twitter: https://twitter.com/DR_Ali_Bagheri LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/alibagheri89 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Aramana979?ref=bookmarks

All opinions expressed in the above article are those of the author alone, and do not reflect any opinions on the part of EU Reporter.

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