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Time for liberal thinking in Nagarno-Karabakh conflict

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Possible scenarios for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is in its hottest phase of the last 30 years, are one of the most baffling problems for the international community in recent days. Whether the last hostility is “the storm before the calm” or relatively " the calm before the storm" is vital for the future of the region and perhaps the world, writes  Louse Auge.

Earlier, it was absolutely normal to make prognosis on the development of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on two main scenarios.

The first and of course the desirable one was to find a solution to the conflict through peace talks. However, the failure of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs to mediate during long 26 years has cast a dark line over this scenario.

The second, but undesirable scenario was another war which also included following two major scenarios: war limited between Armenia and Azerbaijan or a larger-scale war fuelled by the intervention of external forces, first of all Turkey and Russia, turning it into a global catastrophe.

It is unreasonable for Turkey, a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, to intervene directly into this conflict without an additional third country factor, as the military capabilities of Azerbaijan, have proved it unnecessary. Thus, the main threat is the provocation of Russia by Armenia, which is suffering heavy military defeats against Azerbaijan.

It is no longer a secret that Armenia’s primary goal by subjecting densely populated residential areas of Azerbaijan, including those far away from the frontline, to heavy artillery and missile attacks demonstratively from the territories of Armenia, was to provoke Azerbaijan to take similar retaliatory measures, ultimately hoping for direct Russian military intervention. However, despite numerous attempts of Armenia, the restrained approach of the Azerbaijani political and military leadership, as well as the realpolitik and rational approach of the Russian political establishment, led by President Putin, dangerous, mindless and criminal efforts of Armenia have so far been thwarted.

After another talks in Geneva on October 30 between the foreign ministers of the countries’ in war and envoys from France, Russia and the United States, it became clearer that the only scenario in force now is for Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the conflict among themselves - by peace or war. Armenia's unwillingness to leave the occupied Azerbaijani territories voluntarily makes a peaceful solution impossible. Which unfortunately leaves only one scenario valid - war.

However, against the background of the international community's longstanding thesis that there is no military solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a necessary question arises: a peaceful solution has not been possible, and 26 years of negotiations have failed to bring lasting peace to the region. But after one month of military confrontation, there are new realities on the ground now. Will the results of this war eventually bring peace and stability to the region?

Interestingly, by drawing some parallels between conflictology and economics, it is possible to clue an answer to this question. The fact that the war is fought only between Azerbaijan and Armenia and there is no outside interference, inevitably brings to mind the liberal economic theory in which economic relations are formed only on the basis of supply and demand without state intervention. According to the proponents of this theory, in this case, the market will be regulated by the "invisible hand", a metaphor, introduced by the 18th-century Scottish philosopher and economist Adam Smith. Liberalism defines the “invisible hand” as an unobservable market force that helps the demand and supply of goods in a free market to reach equilibrium automatically. This theory also supports the idea that shortcomings and crises in economic activity can be effectively addressed through an "invisible hand" based on pure market principles. On the other hand, although government intervention to the economy may have some regulatory effects, it will not be sustainable and long-lasting. Self-regulation of the market is a condition for economic stability.

Despite all its shortcomings and criticisms, this theory perhaps is the best solution to apply to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at this stage.

Natural equilibrium in the region is possible only through mutual recognition and restoration of international borders. Without ensuring these basics, any outside interference or attempts to re-freeze the conflict will not bring a lasting solution and will eventually lead to future new wars.

So far, the battles of last month show that Azerbaijan is closer to determined victory in this war. As a result, Armenia will have to renounce its territorial claims once and for all, leaving no reason for further wars with Azerbaijan. The huge demographic, economic and military gap of Armenia against Azerbaijan and, as well as the absence of any claims of Azerbaijan to the territories of Armenia, will preclude a new war between the two countries in the future.

Thus, as painful as it may sound, if the world really wants a durable peace in the region, the only way now is to let the warring parties to find the necessary balance among themselves. "Laissez-faire, laissez-passer", as the liberals recap it nicely. And peace and stability, which many consider highly unlikely, will not be far off.

All opinions expressed in the above article are those of the author alone, and do not reflect any opinions on the part of EU Reporter.

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EAPM: Beating cancer inequalities, getting ready for summer hols and transparency

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Good afternoon, health colleagues, and welcome to the European Alliance for Personalised Medicine (EAPM) update – there is much to discuss, on beating inequalities in cancer treatment, clinical data transparency and, importantly, planning for summer holidays writes EAPM Executive Director Dr. Denis Horgan.

Commissioner says EU cancer plan must ‘break the silence’ on women’s cancers

There is a large inequality of access to women’s cancer services and treatments across the EU, according to the bloc’s health chief, who highlighted the role of Europe’s Beating Cancer plan in bridging these disparities. Speaking during a webinar, Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said there is a need to “break the silence” and talk openly about gynaecological cancers. 

The EU, she added, has “to assure that all women in all corners of the EU, get the support, have access to the screening and the vaccination, the information and the multidisciplinary care that they should be having”. 

Her hopes are on Europe’s beating cancer plan, which must bring “real change”. “This is what European citizens expect from us. And I also believe that we don’t have a right to fail them. We have an opportunity and we need to seize it,” Kyriakides said. Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan was set in 2020 to tackle the entire disease pathway, from prevention to treatment, with the goal to equalise access to high-quality care, diagnosis and treatment across the bloc. 

About 40% of cancer cases are preventable through effective cancer prevention strategies. The commissioner added that the EU cancer plan “aims to offer breast cancer screening to 90% of people who qualify for it by 2025”.

EMA chief sceptical about waiving patents as answer to vaccine inequity

The head of the European Medicines Agency expressed scepticism that waiving patents on coronavirus vaccines will bring about equitable access, saying that instead the answer was increasing distribution and availability.

In an interview with several national European newspapers, EMA Executive Director Emer Cooke said that she firmly believes in “equitable access to vaccines and that nobody is safe until we are all safe,” when asked about the U.S. proposal for a vaccine patent waiver. 

“For me, however, the way to solve this problem at the moment is to increase the distribution and availability of vaccines,” she said, pointing to a significant number of doses set to be available over the next several months. 

Cooke said that the focus should be on “enabling innovation.” “None of our existing vaccines would have come about if there hadn’t been an environment that made innovation attractive,” she said. 

Despite this, Cooke conceded that in the “long term” the debate on patent protection should be carried out. 

More action on rare diseases

Any disease affecting fewer than five people in 10,000 in the EU is considered rare. Although this might appear small, it translates into approximately 246,000 people. Most patients suffer from even rarer diseases affecting 1 person in 100,000 or more. Approximately 5,000-8,000 distinct rare diseases affect 6-8% of the EU population i.e. between 27 and 36 million people.

Public Health Policy Director Anna Kole has said that the successful launch of Europe’s Beating Cancer plan had provided inspiration for the idea of creating a dedicated action plan for rare diseases. 

Meanwhile, the Commission is moving on several different fronts to improve rare disease treatment in the EU. An impact assessment evaluating proposals to change EU regulations for medicines for rare diseases and for children is expected to run until the first quarter of next year. That will open the door to new legislative changes. And creation of a European health data space will allow pooling data from rare disease patients across different member countries. 

Kole said that an action plan would allow better coordination across the disparate fields that the Commission is acting on, as well as the introduction of new flagship initiatives. 

“If there’s one disease area where EU added value can’t be more clearly demonstrated, it’s rare diseases,” said Kole, who pointed to the benefits of allowing patients to move across borders for specialist treatment, or for facilitating data sharing throughout the bloc, as examples.

The EU supports research into rare diseases through Horizon 2020, the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. Horizon 2020 is the biggest EU Research and Innovation programme ever, with nearly €80 billion of funding available over 7 years (2014 to 2020). Close to €900 million, is available to more than 160 collaborative projects related to rare diseases.

Rich-poor vaccine inequity

The disparity in access to COVID-19 vaccines between rich and low-income countries has become impossible to ignore; according to UNICEF data, 86% of all doses given worldwide up to 30 March were administered to those in high- and upper-middle-income countries, while just 1% of jabs have been given to those in the world’s poorest. 

Low-risk groups in the UK, US and Israel are becoming eligible for jabs, while vulnerable populations elsewhere remain at risk of contracting the virus. The hoarding of vaccines by wealthy countries, as the pandemic ravages economically disadvantaged nations, has brought the issue of vaccine patents to the fore. 

Biotechnology Innovation Organization  wrote in the Economist that the proposal “undermines the very system that produced the life-saving science in the first place”, and “destroys the incentive for companies to take risks to find solutions for the next health emergency”. 

Regulators and WHO call for clinical data transparency

World regulatory authorities are calling for increased transparency from the pharmaceutical industry in how they report and give access to clinical trial data. In a joint statement, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Coalition of Medicines Regulatory Authorities (ICMRA) cited need for “wide access to clinical data for all new medicines and vaccines”. 

Data related to a therapy or vaccine “must be published at the time of finalization of the regulatory review,” they said, regardless of whether the decision is positive or negative. “It cannot be justified to keep confidential efficacy and safety data of a medicine available on the market, or which has been refused access to the market.” 

The two bodies cited “overriding public health interest” in their statement, which called for pharmaceutical companies to report clinical trial results without redacting information that would otherwise be confidential because of commercial reasons. Only personally identifying information and individual patient data should be redacted from publicly available clinical trial data, wrote WHO and ICMRA. 

People can ‘start thinking about Europe summer travel’ 

People can start thinking about summer holidays in Europe on condition of being vaccinated, the EU has said, as its planned digital travel 'health pass' is on track for use from mid-June. The plan is that a European-wide health pass will be launched at the same time across the EU, and countries that do not have the resources to put it in place will be supported by the Commission, to avoid delays. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said: “I seriously believe that we can start thinking about [summer travel], probably like last year in Europe. “It will be important to open the continent gradually, and to be able to go on holiday. Everyone must go to get vaccinated. As soon as you are called, go to get vaccinated.”

Commission publishes open public consultation on the European Health Data Space 

The Commission has published an open public consultation on the European Health Data Space (EHDS) - an important building block of the European Health Union. The EHDS aims to make full use of digital health to provide high-quality healthcare and reduce inequalities. It will promote access to health data for prevention, diagnosis and treatment, research and innovation, as well as for policy-making and legislation. The EHDS will place individuals' rights to control their own personal health data at its core.

The consultation will remain open for responses until 26 July 2021. Health and Food Safety Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said: ″The European Health Data Space will be a crucial component of a strong European Health Union. It will enable EU-wide collaboration for better healthcare, better research and better health policy-making. I invite all interested citizens and stakeholders to take part in the consultation and help us leverage the power of data for our health. This will have to rest on a strong foundation of non-negotiable citizens' rights, including privacy and data protection.″ 

And that is everything from EAPM for now – stay safe, stay well, have a terrific weekend, see you next week.

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European Jewish chief asks heads of state to step up security of Jewish institutions due to rising threat

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Rabbi Menachem Margolin (pictured), the chairman of the Brussels-based European Jewish Association, has written to heads of state across Europe asking them to step up security around Jewish Institutions and increase their vigilance and monitoring of known extremist networks in light of the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict.

Europe wide surveys by agencies such as the Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) show that whenever there is a conflict between Israel and Palestinians, there is a marked uptick in incidents of an anti-semitic nature.

Rabbi Margolin relayed to the Heads of State that Jewish communities across the continent were concerned that if was not a matter of “if” but “when” reprisals against Jews and Jewish Institutions would take place.

In his letter the EJA head wrote:

I write with a heavy heart for having to do so, but with an urgent request for your consideration.

Figures prove that whenever Israel is engaged in skirmishes with Palestinian terror groups or others that seek to undermine Israel’s sovereignty, there is a sharp and marked uptick in antisemitic attacks across Europe.

In short, Jews are held responsible. Of course, this runs counter to the spirit and letter of the IHRA definition of antisemitism - namely that Jews should not be held responsible for events in Israel, but also that antisemitism and anti-zionism are two sides of the same coin.

Our association are hearing from our communities that they are concerned that it isn’t a case of ‘if’ but ‘when’ there will be reprisals and acts carried out against them because of the ongoing conflict. These concerns are not without foundation as we have already seen a number of angry demonstrations outside synagogues in parts of Europe.

I ask you humbly and respectfully to increase vigilance and security in and around Jewish Institutions by your forces of law and order during this tense and difficult time and to increase your monitoring of social media channels and extremist networks.”

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Airbus and Air France ordered to stand trial over 2009 crash

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Air France (AIRF.PA) and Airbus (AIR.PA) should stand trial for involuntary manslaughter over their role in a 2009 crash in the Atlantic that killed 228 people, the Paris court of appeal ruled on Wednesday. (12 May)

The ruling reverses a 2019 decision not to prosecute either company over the accident, in which the pilots lost control of the Airbus A330 jet after ice blocked its airspeed sensors.

Victims' families welcomed the ruling, but Airbus and Air France said they would seek to overturn it at the Cour de Cassation, France's highest appeal court.

"The court decision that has just been announced does not reflect in any way the conclusions of the investigation," Airbus said in an emailed statement.

Air France logo is pictured at the Air France check-in at Bordeaux-Merignac airport, as Air France pilots, cabin and ground crews unions call for a strike over salaries in Merignac near Bordeaux, France April 7, 2018. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau
The Airbus logo pictured at the company's headquarters in Blagnac near Toulouse, France, March 20, 2019.  REUTERS/Regis Duvignau

Air France "maintains that it committed no criminal fault at the root of this tragic accident", said a spokesman for the carrier, which is part of Air France-KLM.

Air France flight AF447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris crashed on 1 June, 2009, killing everyone on board.

French investigators found that the crew had mishandled the situation arising from the loss of speed data from sensors blocked with ice and caused an aerodynamic stall by holding the aircraft's nose too high.

The earlier decision not to go to trial drew legal challenges from the families as well as pilot unions and prosecutors who had pursued charges against Air France alone.

Wednesday's ruling upheld new demands for a trial of both companies from senior prosecutors who have accused Air France of pilot training failures and Airbus for underestimating dangers posed by known problems with the speed sensors.

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