#AE17: Northern Irish elections could have seismic consequences

As Prime Minister Theresa May addressed the Scottish Conservative Party in Glasgow yesterday (3 March) tellers in polling stations across Northern Ireland were counting votes in the province’s election. In her speech, May said that she would not allow the United Kingdom to drift apart. As she spoke, Unionist parties in the north of Ireland watched their support shrink to its lowest in nearly 100 years. 

The elections were triggered by Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness’s resignation over First Minister Arlene Foster’s responsibility for the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme scandal, a scheme she established in 2012 when minister for enterprise. The scheme was originally budgeted to cost £25 million, but could now cost taxpayers up to £500m (nearly €600m).

McGuinness called for Foster to stand down while a full investigation could take place, when she refused, he tendered his resignation calling the Democratic Unionist Party’s position ‘arrogant’ and lacking in credibility.
Any future assembly was going to see a cull of 18 seats, so it was inevitable that most parties would lose seats. What is remarkable is that the main unionist parties – the Democratic Unionist Party and Ulster Unionist Party – lost 16 seats, while the two main nationalist parties - Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party – lost just one seat.

#AE17 final seat results:

DUP 28(-10)
SF 27(-1)
SDLP 12(-)
UUP 10(-6)
APNI 8(-)
GP 2(-)
PBP 1(-1)
TUV 1(-)
Ind 1(-)

Total 90 MLAs(-18)

— Ireland Elects (@IrelandElects) March 4, 2017

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There are two remarkable points:

Unionist vote below 50%

For the first time, since Northern Ireland was created in 1921, unionist parties (those parties that wish Northern Ireland to remain a part of the United Kingdom) won less than 50% of the vote. In Northern Ireland this is remarkable. One of the reasons that there is little media coverage of these elections - even in the UK or Ireland - is that they are seen to be more of a tribal head-count than an election.

'Remain' parties hold the majority

Sinn Féin President, Gerry Adams, called the vote a vote against Brexit. It is hard to know how influential the prospect of Brexit was in the hearts and minds of voters, but the majority for pro-Remain parties echoes the result in the UK’s EU referendum, where both Scotland and Northern Ireland took a pro-EU stance.

#AE17 EU Referendum stance:

Remain(SF, SDLP, UUP, APNI, GP, Ind): 60
Leave(DUP, PBP, TUV): 30#Brexit

— Ireland Elects (@IrelandElects) March 4, 2017

What next

The winning parties will have three weeks to form a government. Some politicians are already suggesting that this period could be extended. However, Sinn Féin continues to call for Arlene Foster’s resignation as DUP party leader while a full investigation of the heating scandal is carried out; if no government is formed Northern Ireland could return to what is called ‘direct rule’ from London.

It is difficult to know what this will mean for the peace process, but the prospect of direct rule and being cut off from the rest of Europe will lead to a period of deep instability.

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