Opinion: EU-Ukraine - towards the ‘winter of discontent’

By the end of the week, the good news of the OSCE delegates being released from Slavyansk has been completely overshadowed by the mounting evidence of tragic events in Odessa, the once flamboyant, multinational and multicultural port of the Black Sea, famed for the sparkling sense of humour of its inhabitants.

Dramatic headlines and videos have been flowing from the East - Kramatorsk and Lugansk - both of which have suffered losses of civilians in clashes between troops and local separatists, proclaimed as ‘terrorists’ by the new Kiev government. The non-recognition of their power, snatched in a coup-d’état, and their firm rejection of giving up their cultural identity, means that the Russian language remains the major cause of the ire of Ukrainian nationalists.

TV channels covering the uprising in the East were challenged by the stories of witnesses revealing their personal experiences on social media, where passions were high. The widespread images of carbonized corpses of ‘federalization’ supporters in Odessa, burnt alive in the building set on fire by the pro-Maidan forces, put to ashes hopes of reconciliation between two antagonistic communities. Odessa writer Vsevolod Nepogodin, an eye-witness to the mass-murder, concludes his story with an outcry: "From now you can be killed, just because you are Russian."

In parallel, the social networks are charged with  ‘Pravy sector’ tweets vowing to continue to "clear Ukraine of ‘Colorado bugs’" – a scornful name for Russians, wearing the Saint George orange-black ribbon as a souvenir of the victory over fascism.

In the smoke of battle between the two communities Brussels condolences and calls for reconciliation passed without taking any effect – the unleashed forces appeared too powerful to harness.

The apparent intention to call for a new round of EU sanctions on Monday (5 May) sounds increasingly inadequate, as the Kremlin has no power to muzzle the bloodthirsty Pravy sector, nor calm the anxieties of Russians living in Ukraine – the videos of extreme brutality and atrocities in Odessa cannot be erased by political declarations: people have seen the value of these twice. The 21 February document signed by foreign affairs ministers has fallen into oblivion in the aftermath of the Maidan Square massacre; the recent Geneva declarations  were set on fire in Odessa when the ‘Pravy sector’ threw Molotov cocktails into the building where unarmed ‘federalization’ activists were sheltering.

This growing intensity of the Ukrainian conflict is raising security concerns for the EU - gas supply security is becoming paramount: during this week's meeting in Warsaw, Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger,  Russian Minister Alexandre Novak and his Ukrainian counterpart Yuri Prodan did not reach any agreement on the Ukrainian $2.2 billion gas debt, which has been growing since the Maidan Square protests.

Gazprom guaranteed Europe delivery until the end of May, requesting a pre-pay system from the beginning of June. Oettinger’s tactic to impose the same gas price for all EU members plus Ukraine did not meet with approval from the Russian energy giant – as no other supplier country has been confronted with this request, Gazprom discarded it as being purely discriminatory.

However, the Russian minister considered Oettinger’s recognition of the Ukrainian debt and current ‘non-payment’ for gas delivery as a positive conclusion to the negotiations, which are to be continued in May.

However in spite of multiple declarations of the international financial institutions to come to the rescue of the new Ukrainian government, the economic and financial problems are still unresolved. The perils of a protracted armed conflict remain high, bringing extra risks to gas transportation through Ukrainian territory. Gazprom continues to promote the development of the South Stream pipeline as an ultimate solution to all kind of systemic instabilities in Ukraine. Caught in the spell of extremely intense political passions, and vulnerable to the whirlwinds of revolution, the country is becoming an increasingly dangerous place for all kinds of endeavours, including trade.

Gas supply disruption has no novelty for Europe, which has suffered from winter gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine in the past -  Europeans now have every reason to fear their very own ‘winter of discontent'

Anna van Densky

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