Fears mount that Obama administration is willing to accept 'bad deal' over Iran as a threshold nuclear power

As world powers (the so-called P5+1) and Iran are meeting in Lausanne, Switzerland, for critical talks on Iranian nuclear programme ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for a deal with Tehran that would lift the sanctions in view of a comprehensive agreement by the end of June, Israel and other opponents of the deal, including US legislators and Sunni Arab states, fear the Obama administration is willing to accept a bad deal which will legitimize Iran as a threshold nuclear power.

One day before the deadline, negotiators are still trying to carve out the framework of an agreement. “Iran and the world powers also appear to be grappling with two other controversial issues: Tehran’s ability to conduct research and development on more advanced centrifuges, and the speed with which sanctions against Iran will be lifted,” said an expert.

“With a negotiating deadline just two days away, Iranian officials on Sunday backed away from a critical element of a proposed nuclear agreement, saying they are no longer willing to ship their atomic fuel out of the country,” the New York Times wrote.

The prospective deal, should it be agreed, appears set to leave Iran with substantial enrichment capability (reportedly 6,000 centrifuges) and insufficiently deterred from gradually eroding the agreement.

“Many in Israel, including Isaac Herzog (leader of the opposition) understand how bad the agreement is,” says Prof.Uzi Rabi, Director of the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at the Tel Aviv University. “Iran understands that it would be easier for them to have nukes with an agreement than without,” he adds.

So Israel and other opponents of the deal fear that rather that blocking Iran’s path to a bomb, this agreement paves the path to a bomb, by legitimizing Iran as a nuclear threshold state, able to acquire nuclear weapons within a short time frame.

Though Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities in the immediate aftermath of an agreement is highly unlikely, Israel will reserve the option to use force to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

The restrictions that would be placed on Iran’s nuclear programme appear reversible, whereas the sanctions regime would take much longer to restore.

The number of centrifuges Iran will keep and stockpiles of enriched uranium will according to some experts give Iran a breakout time of significantly less than one year.

There is a lack of demands placed on Iran relating to its regional policies, including support for terrorism. “Iran controls four capital cities in the Middle East, Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and now Sanaa,” stressed Professor Rabi, who believes Tehran’s objective is to build up levers of influence all over the region.

Iran is ideologically opposed to Israel’s existence and its leaders regularly call for its destruction. Iranian President Mohammad Rouhani has described Israel as a “cancer”.

Iran actively opposes Israel, Palestinian moderates and the Middle East Peace Process. It positions itself as the regional leader of radical of radical anti-Western and anti-Israel forces, supporting the Assad regime, Hezbollah in Lebanon and terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip.

Iran arms, trains and supports armed groups that operate against Israel and Jewish targets around the world. In March 2014, Israel captured the Klos-C ship carrying advanced missiles with a range of 100-200 km from Iran to Gaza. These heavy missiles would have put most Israelis in range. Iran has already missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads that can reach Israel.

In the long run, should the deal come to pass, Israel will have to develop strategic plans and intelligence to monitor, deter and contain a threshold nuclear power committed to Israel’s destruction.

Israel will also have to adapt to a scenario in which other states in the region seek nuclear arms to match or deter Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

“This deal is clearly paving the way for Iran to become a dangerous regional power that will no longer be under international supervision by the time our children are in high school. How has it not occurred to anyone that if we’re headed toward such a bad deal, Iran must remain under supervision as long as a regime like this is in power there?” asked Israeli journalist Boaz Bismuth in Israel Hayom.