#Brexit: May’s election gamble backfires #Election2017 #GE2017

When Prime Minister Theresa May announced the snap election seven weeks ago, in the name of Brexit, the British electorate gave a collective sigh. Was there to be no respite from seemingly endless voting, writes Catherine Feore?

On that same day #BrendafromBristol started trending on Twitter. Brenda, who was just returning from the shops was asked by a BBC journalist what she thought of the new election, she said - with an exasperation that captured the feelings of a nation: “Not another one, I can’t stand it.” May had after all promised not to hold an election. This was the first of many U-turns.

A deeply divided nation was still reeling from the referendum on UK membership of the EU, battered and bruised supporters of both sides of the debate had just about returned to speaking terms – both confident that their arguments were the right ones.

Given the massive lead in the polls that the Conservatives held in early May and the travails of a seemingly demoralized and fractured Labour Party the manoeuvre looked like a deeply cynical act to secure a massive majority for a five-year period.

Strong and stable to weak and wobbly

May brought Australian political strategist Lynton Crosby on board for one of the worst campaigns the Conservative Party has ever run. Crosby chose to focus all efforts on supreme leader Theresa May; someone who appeared cold, uptight and distant - the Conservative Party itself was barely mentioned.

A small cabal of May insiders gathered to cobble together a Conservative Party manifesto. The discussions were not shared with a wider group and the party ended up with policy proposals that were death on the doorstep. In the end, May was forced to perform a number of U-turns. The Tories seemed to be behaving in a particularly high-handed fashion by attacking Labour’s manifesto while not costing their own proposals.

The horrific attacks in Manchester and London would normally be expected to result in support for the Conservative Party’s tough line on law and order. The prime minister showed that she was willing to throw away the human rights rule book in the face of terror. However, the police and Labour politicians argued that an understaffed, underfunded and demoralized police service was more damaging for national security.

The results are difficult to dissect and it is difficult to make assumptions. Remainer Londoners seem to have thrown their support behind Labour, whereas Remainer Scots (admittedly under a Remainer leader, Ruth Davidson) might give the Conservatives the best result they have had in years.

Winners and losers

The House of Commons has lost a strong Remain politician in the former Deputy Leader Nick Clegg. In his acceptance speech he said whoever won would face the "excruciating task of forming a government for a polarized nation". Clegg pointed to the huge gulf between young and old in particular and urged politicians not to amplify what divides but to reach out and heal divisions.

May has said that if she wins the most votes she fully intends to lead the next government. She will be able to count on the support of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland, should additional votes be needed.

May has also lost MPs she is close to, such as Ben Gummer. A poor result will weaken her hand; with her own MPs on the road to Brexit, losing close allies will weaken her postion again.

Corbyn has called for May to stand down, but it isn’t obvious if he will be able to do this. A progressive alliance could be the best way to see a rethink on Brexit and the possible option of a second referendum. High profile MPs like Kier Stamer could probably steer the party away from the harder Brexit options.

All will be revealed tomorrow. But what is clear is that the decision to hold this election has backfired on the prime minister; she has weakened, not strengthened her hand. With negotiations finally kicking off in ten days time, the EU-27 will know that they are dealing with a weak and divided country.

A hung parliament will exasperate all involved. A further delay to a timetable that is already slipping will not be welcome. The British Conservatives decided to throw the UK into an existential crisis that made the EU's problems look distinctly resolvable, having set up the referendum and won it by a slim majority, May decided to attach herself to the most extreme interpretation of that choice - further polarizing the country. For the EU-27, the 'deuil est fait' the mourning is over, they want to end uncertainty and move forward.

While it is difficult to imagine any government requesting that Article 50 be rescinded, it is difficult to see how negotiations can continue if a government is not in place.

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