A third way for Libya: Europe must rethink its Libya strategy to ensure stability in North Africa

A stable Libya is critical to Europe’s ability to address migration, counter Russian influence, and ensure energy security. In a significant development on January 19, the President of the Supreme Council of the State, Muhammad Takala, and his first deputy met with representatives of the Libyan movement to restore the constitutional monarchy. The council reaffirmed its support for calls to restore Libya’s constitutional monarchy, emphasizing that this mechanism can serve as a viable solution to the nation’s ongoing fragmentation and political paralysis. This endorsement marks a pivotal moment in efforts to stabilize the country, with increasing calls to reactivate the country’s suspended Independence Constitution, and recognize Libya’s Crown Prince, Mohammed El Senussi’s leadership as instrumental in stabilizing the fragmented North African nation, writes Colin Stevens.

In recent years, Europe’s political failures in Africa have been dramatic, with few examples more damning than the case of Libya. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been locked in a cycle of political failure and deepening fragmentation, creating a power vacuum that opportunists continue to exploit to the detriment of the Libyan people. This instability has also allowed Europe’s adversaries to entrench themselves, posing grave security threats on Europe’s doorstep. Amid this chaos, an often-overlooked solution—the restoration of Libya’s democratic constitutional monarchy—continues to offer a viable path forward.

Libya’s strategic position on Europe’s southern flank and on the shores of the Mediterranean cannot be overstated. Closer to Europe than Syria, Libya serves as a gateway to the Sahel and the rest of Africa. Ongoing instability exacerbates critical issues, including migration, human trafficking, drug smuggling, and energy insecurity. Most alarmingly, the power vacuum in Libya has allowed Russia to establish a foothold in the region. It is well-documented that Russian mercenaries, including groups like Wagner (now called The Africa Corp) and Redut, operate freely in Libya, securing their position with the help of strategic military bases. This presence is a direct threat to European security and showcases the disastrous consequences of Europe’s continued reliance on failed policies.

Since 2011, Europe and the United Nations have been deeply involved in Libya’s political process, promising Libyans a “Libyan-led” future. However, no such initiative has ever truly taken root. External powers have played far more significant roles than they should in shaping Libya’s trajectory. General Khalifa Haftar, the warlord ruling the country’s east, owes his rise and sustained power to support originally received from Paris and Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, in the west, the EU was an important voice in bringing in Abdulhamid Dbeibah to lead the Government of National Unity. In recent years, Russia (in the east) and Turkey (in the west) have become prominent players. But despite these external influences, little progress has been made, and given the decreased emphasis the new US administration will likely put on Africa, Libya is now an even greater and more urgent security issue for Europe.

Some argue that Libya’s ongoing internal divisions have been exacerbated by these flawed international efforts. Historical fissures between the country’s East, West, and South—alongside tribal and militia-based rivalries—continue to deepen. Multiple efforts either to build a new republic from scratch, or to impose a new military dictatorship have failed spectacularly. The first approach, involving the drafting of a new constitution and holding national elections, ignores a fundamental lesson of history: democracy cannot commence without strong institutions. The second approach, ignores the practical reality that Libya’s enormous land mass combined with extreme factionalism, make the military dictatorship option unsustainable. Meanwhile, corruption and conflict remain unaddressed, further undermining progress.

Amid this political quagmire, many Libyans, frustrated by the damaging meddling of outsiders, are turning to their country’s history for a practical solution: the restoration of the democratic constitutional monarchy. Established in 1951 under King Idris, Libya’s historic monarchy provided the only unifying governance model that successfully emphasized national identity and stability. Unlike militaristic or republican experiments, it offered a distinctly Libyan framework rooted in tradition and history. Today, HRH Mohammed El Senussi, the Crown Prince of Libya and rightful heir to the monarchy, represents this legacy. His leadership could provide the necessary bridge to stabilize the country and rebuild its democratic institutions.

A constitutional monarchy offers several key advantages. It is a tried-and-tested system with inherent legitimacy and the capacity to unify the nation. Unlike Libya’s current factions, the monarchy is not implicated in the failures and corruption of the past decades. Moreover, it provides a democratic framework that is a practical and culturally resonant alternative to endless constitutional debates.

Monarchies have historically played a stabilizing role in times of national crisis. European countries should understand this better than most. France, for instance, returned to monarchy for stability after the chaos of the French Revolution, while Italy restored its monarchy to navigate political turmoil most recently in the early 20th century. These historical precedents underscore the relevance of constitutional monarchy as a mechanism for unifying fractured nations and putting them on a better path

The international community, led by the UN and Europe, has largely ignored the potential of Libya’s constitutional monarchy. This oversight is baffling given Europe’s own history of relying on monarchy to restore order. Worse, Europe’s continued focus on supporting flawed republican and militaristic models, in spite of consistent and predictable failure, has alienated Libyans, who increasingly view external actors as obstacles promoting their own interests, rather than partners.

France and Italy, in particular, should take heed. Both countries have seen their influence wane across Africa in recent years, from their ejection from the Sahel to their diminishing relevance in Libya. By failing to support a truly Libyan-led initiative, such as the restoration of the constitutional monarchy, Europe risks further side-lining itself in North Africa. This is not just a matter of reputation; it is a question of security. A stable Libya is critical to Europe’s ability to address migration, counter Russian influence, and ensure energy security.

The restoration of Libya’s constitutional monarchy is no longer a fringe idea. Recent national dialogues, led by Libyans themselves under the auspices of HRH Mohammed El Senussi, have placed the monarchy at the centre of discussions about the country’s future. Quietly, but self-assuredly, thousands of Libyans from across Libya’s factional divides have attended these dialogue sessions, showing the unifying power of the monarchy around a democratic vision designed to fit Libya. Despite this, Europe and the UN remain fixated on failed strategies. It is time for a fundamental rethink. The stakes could not be higher.

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