The psychological impact of Bashar al-Assad's fall on Iran and its people

For more than four decades, Assad's Syria has been one of the Iranian regime's most important allies, enabling Tehran to expand its influence across the region. As Iran's main partner in its proxy wars, Assad's regime facilitated Iranian control of Lebanon through Hezbollah and provided a critical bridge for Iranian forces to manoeuvre in Iraq, Syria and beyond, including a strategic corridor from Tehran to Beirut. However, with Assad's sudden collapse after a swift and unexpected military defeat in 11 days, the Iranian regime faces a major strategic and psychological setback, writes Firouz Mahvi (Iranian opposition-NCRI) @FirouzMahvi.

The psychological impact of the fall of the Assad regime on the Iranian people is profound, especially for those who have suffered under the oppressive rule of the mullahs. For years, the Iranian regime has promoted the idea that its power and influence in the region is unassailable. The loss of Bashar al-Assad, whose family has been an indispensable partner in Iran's regional hegemony, is a devastating blow to this narrative. But what the Iranian people are witnessing is not just the fall of a dictator. They are witnessing the demise of a regime they have been forced to support, despite the suffering it has caused at home and abroad. The psychological effect of witnessing Assad's collapse is powerful because it directly challenges the perception that authoritarian regimes, especially those closely linked to the Iranian theocracy, are invulnerable.

This event sends a message to the Iranian people: even the most entrenched dictatorships can fall. It shows that despite the apparent invincibility of the Assad regime - backed by the full force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and a vast network of proxy militias - such regimes can be dismantled through a combination of internal weakness, external pressure and popular resistance. This realisation is crucial for Iranians who have long felt trapped by the regime's repression, which has made it seem as if there is no way out.

A symbol of hope for the Iranian opposition

The Iranian people and their organised opposition are emboldened by the fall of Assad. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi, has long argued that the Iranian regime's days are numbered, despite its massive military and security apparatus. The rapid collapse of the Assad regime provides the Iranian people, especially the NCRI's supporters, with tangible proof that the mullahs' regime is not as powerful as it appears.

The NCRI's vision for Iran is not just a theoretical ideal. It is backed by a well-organised resistance movement inside the country, led by the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK) which has played a crucial role in exposing the regime's corruption, including its nuclear ambitions, and in organising protests and uprisings across Iran. PMOI resistance units operating covertly inside Iran have become an increasingly powerful force in challenging the regime's security apparatus, particularly the IRGC.

Assad's fall is not only a blow to Iran's regional ambitions, but also a testament to the fragility of the Iranian regime itself. There is a deep sense within the opposition that if Assad, a once powerful leader backed by Iran, could collapse so quickly, so could the Iranian regime. This belief has the potential to galvanise efforts within Iran and fuel a new sense of determination to overthrow the mullahs.

For the Iranian people, especially those suffering under the harsh economic conditions imposed by both domestic mismanagement and international sanctions, Assad's fall offers a powerful symbolic victory. It shows that even deeply entrenched regimes are vulnerable and that the current regime in Tehran - whose policies have destabilised much of the Middle East - can be toppled. The psychological impact on ordinary Iranians is considerable. They see that regime change is not only possible but imminent.

The Global Context and the Vulnerability of the Iranian Regime

For years, Iran has pursued a strategy of regional destabilisation, using its alliance with Assad, Hezbollah and various proxies in Iraq and Yemen to extend its influence. The fall of Assad represents a significant break in this strategy, leading to a situation where Iran's ability to project power in the region is now under greater scrutiny. For the Iranian people, this is another clear signal that their government is losing its grip, not only domestically but also internationally.

This increasing vulnerability has led to growing opposition within Iran itself. The defeat of Assad's military, once regarded by many analysts as one of the strongest forces in the region, shows that even the most formidable armies can crumble under pressure. It is a lesson that resonates deeply with the Iranian people, who are witnessing an economic crisis, widespread protests and growing unrest in their own country. The mullahs' regime, once thought to be unassailable, now looks more vulnerable than ever.

Conclusion: The winds of change in Iran

For over forty years, Iran has been under the grip of a religious dictatorship that has inflicted immense suffering on its people and wreaked havoc across the Middle East. The mullahs' regime has suppressed freedoms, stifled dissent and maintained a climate of fear and repression. But the winds of change are beginning to blow. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, a key ally of Iran, and the growing strength of the Iranian resistance, signal that the time for change is fast approaching.

The main Iranian opposition, led by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), is committed to the establishment of a free, democratic and secular republic. Maryam Rajavi's leadership is based on her Ten Point Plan for a Democratic Iran. The plan outlines key principles for a future Iran, including the abolition of the death penalty, equal rights for women, the separation of religion and state, and the establishment of a government that respects freedom of speech and religious tolerance. The plan also provides for  a peaceful transition to democracy, with a provisional government organising free elections within six months of the fall of the regime.

In a recent meeting at the European Parliament, Mrs Rajavi reaffirmed the Resistance's unwavering commitment to freedom, gender equality and the separation of religion and state. This commitment is best summed up in her slogans, which have become a rallying cry for the Resistance: "No to compulsory hijab, no to compulsory religion and no to compulsory government".

It is time for the international community to stand with them and help bring about the regime change that Iran so desperately needs.

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