The roadmap of the democratic alternative for regime change in Iran in 2025

Berlin: NCRI rally to call for a regime change in Iran

11 February marks the forty-seventh anniversary of the 1979 anti-monarchy revolution in Iran. Despite the Iranian people’s democratic aspirations, clerics seized power and established one of the most repressive dictatorships in modern history. Today, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)—the principal democratic alternative to Iran’s ruling theocracy—has called for a major rally in Paris on February 8 at Denfert-Rochereau to reaffirm the fight for freedom and democracy, writes Ali Bagheri, Ph.D, president of the International Freedom of Speech Alliance.

Since the 1980s, the NCRI has been at the forefront of the struggle for regime change in Iran, paying a heavy price to keep the flame of revolution alive. Over the years, it has overcome significant challenges, exposing the Iranian regime’s regional threats, nuclear ambitions, and human rights violations on the international stage. These efforts have helped build a global coalition against the regime’s malign behavior.

Now, as the anniversary of the 1979 revolution approaches, the NCRI—the longest-standing and most organized opposition movement since 1980—seeks to revive the original ideals of freedom and democracy that inspired the revolution. The rally in Paris is expected to draw tens of thousands of Iranians, urging European governments to recognize the Iranian people’s right to regime change and their right to defend themselves against the brutal repression of the regime’s security forces.

Yet, a crucial question lingers: Should we expect a revolution in 2025 in Iran and will Iranians achieve freedom and democracy after 120 years of struggle?

A window of opportunity for change in Iran

The growing instability in the Middle East—from Gaza to Lebanon and the eventual downfall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad—has exposed the vulnerabilities of Iran’s ruling theocracy. Having failed to maintain its strategic influence in the region, the regime now faces mounting pressure. Across Europe, media outlets and political leaders increasingly acknowledge that regime change in Iran is no longer a matter of speculation but an inevitable outcome.

The shifting balance of power in the region has significantly weakened Tehran’s ability to engage in blackmail diplomacy on the international stage. This, in turn, highlights the failure of the longstanding Western policy of appeasement, which has enabled the mullahs to expand their regional proxies, push their nuclear program to the brink of weaponization, and sustain their terror and hostage-taking operations as a profitable enterprise that undermines international norms.

Speaking at an international conference in Paris on 11 January, General Keith Kellogg, former U.S. national security advisor, emphasized the necessity of reinstating the “maximum pressure” campaign. He stated, “The regime in Iran is weaker than it has been in decades. It should not be feared but challenged.”

Domestic Unrest and the Road to Massive Protests

Inside Iran, a combination of harsh repression, economic collapse, deepening social crises, and rampant government corruption has pushed society to the brink of an uprising. The 92% boycott of the 2024 elections demonstrated the regime’s total lack of legitimacy and public support. Meanwhile, the expansion of the organized resistance movement has intensified preparations for a nationwide uprising.

The recent fall of Assad has further shaken the Iranian regime. In response, the regime’s suppressive apparatus has ramped up executions, viewing brutality as its only means of survival. In 2024 alone, the regime carried out at least 1,000 executions, breaking its own record for state-sanctioned killings. Among those executed were nine political prisoners from the 2022 uprising, while death sentences were handed down to ten more political prisoners affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), the most organized democratic opposition group in the country. Additionally, numerous Baluch, Kurdish, and Arab dissidents have faced the same fate.

Just two weeks after the fall of the Syrian dictatorship, Iran’s Chief Justice issued direct orders for security forces to “collaborate with intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies to take all necessary measures to neutralize unrest within the country.” These desperate measures reveal the regime’s growing fear of an imminent rebellion.

The transition of power: From theocracy to people’s sovereignty

While the transition of power after a revolution is always a significant challenge, the Iranian democratic opposition—led by the NCRI—has presented a clear roadmap for a democratic transition. The Ten-Point Plan proposed by Maryam Rajavi, NCRI’s President-elect, guarantees fundamental human rights for all Iranians. This plan has garnered the support of over 4,000 parliamentarians worldwide, 135 former world leaders, 80 Nobel laureates, and thousands of human rights activists.

According to Mrs. Rajavi, the process of transferring power after the regime’s downfall will consist of three key steps:

1. Establishment of a provisional government for a maximum of six months, tasked primarily with organizing elections for a Constituent Assembly.
2. Dissolution of the provisional government once the Constituent Assembly is formed, marking the conclusion of the NCRI’s transitional mission.
3. Transfer of sovereignty to the elected representatives of the Constituent Assembly, who will form a new government with a two-year mandate to draft, approve, and conduct a referendum on the constitution of the new republic.

General Tod Wolters, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, praised this structured approach, stating: “We have a comprehensive six-month plan, and a set of milestones to guide us through the next two years.”

Although the transition of power after a revolution is a big challenge, the Iranian democratic opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), has presented a clear path for a democratic transition in Iran. The ten-point plan of Rajavi, the president-elect of NCRI guarantees the fundamental human rights for every Iranian. This program has been supported by more than 4,000 parliamentarians from all around the world, more than 135 former world leaders, and 80 Nobel Prize winners, and thousands of human rights activists and experts.

A new European policy toward Iran

In this critical juncture, the Iranian people and their democratic opposition must lead the charge toward freedom and democracy. However, the international community also bears a moral responsibility to stand with the Iranian people in their struggle for regime change. The time has come for European governments to abandon their failed policy of appeasement and adopt a stance of firmness against the clerical regime.

A new Middle East, with a democratic Iran at its core, is within reach. It begins with the grand manifestation of Iranians in Paris on 8 February. The road ahead remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the fight for freedom and democracy will continue until every dictatorship is overthrown and replaced with a system that truly represents the will of the people.

Share this article: