Has diplomacy failed in Ukraine?

Most evidence indicates that the war in Ukraine has entered a bone-crushing phase. The crisis will not be resolved through negotiations, at least not in the foreseeable future. There is likely to be an escalation of hostilities in the near term amid growing military supplies from the West heading to Ukraine, writes Salem Alketbi (pictured), UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate

Ukrainian President Zelensky says only diplomacy can end the war. But then he demands that Russia return to its antebellum military outposts. This position somehow coincides with that of the US and Britain, who seek to weaken Russia once and for all and openly declare that it cannot be allowed to win.

Some say that the compromise now to end this war is between the land and the people. In other words, is the price of settlement land or more casualties? These two cases create a double bind.

One of the main things disrupting the end-of-war scenario is the desire of the major powers to explore the limits of traditional Russian power, on the one hand, and to experiment with tactics and plans for new urban wars, on the other. No observer denies that the actions of the Russian army in this war are one of the most prominent points of interest in Western circles.

The performance of Ukrainian forces with their combat capabilities, though limited in weaponry, is also of interest to military planners because unconventional warfare has become one of the greatest challenges facing modern armies. Everyone wants to know what factors influence these wars and how they are managed and controlled.

There are even those who claim that many in the West are waiting and pushing for the battle of Kiev to follow Russian forces in such a major battle, discuss the military development of things in urban warfare, and experiment with defensive tactics capable of stopping the advance of a large army the size of Russia.

All of this is important not only to the US, which prioritizes a major defeat of Russia, but also to European armies, which are preparing for similar circumstances in which they might fall under any geostrategic circumstance. The war in Ukraine has caused widespread concern, especially in the Eastern European countries that were part of the former Soviet Union.

In general, the West, or most of it, is betting on dragging out the battle as long as possible, draining Russia, anticipating the possibility of regime change in the Kremlin, and repeating the 1989 scenario of withdrawal from Afghanistan. Overall, the war in Ukraine also does not seem to be out of control. It did not develop according to a “insane” scenario.

Moscow does not want to get into a direct confrontation with NATO, and the West also avoids getting into a direct confrontation with Russia. But both sides are sticking to achieving their strategic goals, which seem somewhat divergent among Western allies. However, these assumptions cannot be considered final and conclusive.

President Putin avoids compromising the sovereignty of other states, whether they are members of NATO or not. He is very cautious about Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. This has not yet been seen as “retaliatory aggression,” which Moscow has always warned about.

But this position could change if the Kremlin feels that the deliveries could bring about the collapse of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. Russia and the West, I believe, have not yet reached the point where they can be persuaded of the need for mutual concessions to save face on both sides.

That point seems too far away for the West, for whom the battle is taking place on land not far from it, but cannot yet be considered part of it, at least officially. Ukraine is not a member of the EU and is not part of a Western military alliance. Now the West seems to be waging an indirect war against a persistent strategic adversary.

Many believe that the possibility of a Russian bear hijacking should be seized or reduced to the lowest grades. This explains the reluctance of Western capitals so far to encourage Ukraine to reach a political settlement, or at least to stop stoking the fire of war, let alone diplomatic proposals that might facilitate a negotiated solution.

The bottom line is that diplomacy has not yet failed in Ukraine because it simply has not been seriously tested; rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine were not expected to succeed in resolving the crisis.

Now it seems to depend on all sides coming to the conviction that the time has come to get out of this crisis, whether it is an equitable deal or an admission by one side that it has run out of chances to achieve any gains on the ground.

Share this article: